A good parallel for today's market can be the second half of 2007.

The Fed kept rates at 5.25% (orange) despite core inflation was trending around 2% (blue) for quarters already.

That ''higher for longer'' stubborness kept policy unnecessarily tight – as we figured out in 2008 pic.twitter.com/9OwsNs4iHG

— Alf (@MacroAlf) September 18, 2023

🇺🇸 The U.S. Lost 4.1 Million Days of Work Last Month to Strikes – WSJhttps://t.co/5ZbQmMh8GO

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 18, 2023

UAW Chief Fain Rejects 21% Pay Increase Offer As A ‘No-Go’ – BBGhttps://t.co/gqQDK51z7q

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 17, 2023

🇺🇸 #Housing | US Homebuilder Sentiment Drops to Five-Month Low on Higher Rates – Bloomberghttps://t.co/PwEIOKix6Z pic.twitter.com/1ecRi5uyoK

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 19, 2023

Housing September 18th Weekly Update: Inventory increased 1.9% Week-over-week; Down 6.1% Year-over-year https://t.co/hTaWaNa8Uw pic.twitter.com/EVx6X8PmwC

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) September 18, 2023

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.33% in August" https://t.co/mRkskHxlvf

Basically back to pre-pandemic levels. pic.twitter.com/9C447nV4kS

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) September 18, 2023

🇺🇸 The #Fed wants to cool spending; a strike, a shutdown and student loans may add ice – Reutershttps://t.co/ewd1SeJ1Gm pic.twitter.com/Bnek7vB4Lk

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 19, 2023

US Federal Reserve Set To Hold Rates But Leave Tightening In Play – FThttps://t.co/vOSQAr2d23

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 19, 2023

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1703997642089320558

⚠️ FOREIGN HOLDINGS OF US TREASURIES INCREASE IN JULY, CHINA HOLDINGS PLUNGE -DATA

Full Story → https://t.co/nLqgxRHXRG pic.twitter.com/IJUqysn1Qw

— PiQ (@PriapusIQ) September 18, 2023

China August output
Gasoline 14.69 million tons, +20.6% y/y
Fuel oil 4.552 m tons, -4.7%
Diesel 18.353 m tons +28.1%
Kerosene 5.101 m tons, +78.1% 📈#Copper 1.117 m tons, +16.4%#Zinc 545,000 m tons, +5.2%
Lead 619,000 tons, +5.5%#China #OOTT https://t.co/FdT96gsezW

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 18, 2023

Country Garden Wins Approval to Extend Yuan Bond With Sweetener – BBGhttps://t.co/FJVx0GPLEN

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 19, 2023

SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED FILES FOR CHAPTER 15 IN NEW YORK.#SUNAC #China #property https://t.co/BzrA9Z1FSX

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 19, 2023

In 2Q23, the vacancy rate of office buildings in #Beijing reached a new high of 18.3% in nearly 13 years. Particularly in Zhongguancun, where internet giants are based, the vacancy rate of Grade A office buildings jumped from 2% at the end of 2020 to 18.1%.
Source: Savills #China

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 19, 2023

The Minutes of September 2023 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board has been released – https://t.co/PUyHVhdI4l

— Reserve Bank of Australia (@RBAInfo) September 19, 2023

Ueda Abandons ‘Shock and Awe’ On Path Toward BoJ Normalization – BBGhttps://t.co/08FvW5GJE3

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 19, 2023

⚡PBOC conducts 208 billion yuan of the 7-day reverse repo and 60 billion yuan of the 14-day reverse repo on Tuesday.
The net injection comes to 59 billion yuan as 209 billion yuan comes due today. https://t.co/3XEoyKeLF7

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 19, 2023

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1704000970131148882

ASEAN Troops Launch Maritime Drills Amid South China Sea Tension – Nikkeihttps://t.co/0pF7lIWuiU

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 19, 2023

Han Zheng met Blinken in New York and told Blinken that China wants ties with the US on a stable track.-Xinhua
🇨🇳🇺🇸

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 19, 2023

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1703713820831514805

🇩🇪 #Germany | #Bundesbank Urges Economic Revamp as German Economy Shrinks – Bloomberg
*Central bank sees 3Q contraction as consumer recovery delayedhttps://t.co/edHrITIkAh pic.twitter.com/FDIpbC01Ui

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 18, 2023

Euro area annual #inflation at 5.2% in August 2023, down from 5.3% in July https://t.co/Zk9TgHmKhd pic.twitter.com/k06nSdcWVL

— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) September 19, 2023

Euro-Zone Inflation Eased Last Month, Revised Data Show – BBGhttps://t.co/Du1fA7Tmw5

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 19, 2023

How did euro area current account balance evolve in July? How does it compare with the same month a year earlier? Find out more in the press release https://t.co/wYV4OCpytU pic.twitter.com/YVPxO26UF2

— European Central Bank (@ecb) September 19, 2023

🇪🇺 #ECB to tackle excess liquidity in next stage of inflation fight -sources – Reutershttps://t.co/TBbE1sqZSq

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 19, 2023

ECB to keep interest rates at 4% as long as needed, Villeroy says https://t.co/40j7TTJApn via @WHorobin pic.twitter.com/oA1ZUMHSxL

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 19, 2023

UK Inflation Expected To Tick Up, Complicating Talk Of BoE Pause – BBGhttps://t.co/PTiR3tNsOw

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 19, 2023

Bank of England Deputy Governor Says Impairments Rising Among UK Lenders – CNBChttps://t.co/MqWfkMKYw3

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 19, 2023

Meloni may win €3 billion fiscal room as Italy revises 2021 GDP https://t.co/912Aj17vxs via @Alemrome @GioSalzanoWire pic.twitter.com/ox8mOwpGmr

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 18, 2023

Germany’s central bank says an excessive dependence on trade with China is one of the main reasons why the country’s “business model is in danger," warning that 29% of German companies imported essential materials and parts from China. https://t.co/hmLMm12Fg1 pic.twitter.com/YIX9kIKS9t

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 19, 2023

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1703492243443663075

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1703986522490278002

Global Economy Poised To Slow As Higher Rates Bite, OECD Says – BBGhttps://t.co/QxYW4mIPiV

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 19, 2023