M — Morning Briefs

Morning Brief: U.S. Diesel Hits Four-Year High; BOJ Is Said to Favor Quarter-Point Hike; Eurozone PPI To Surprise Upward

03 septembre, 2026
Morning Brief

Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

Correlation between the 10Y and oil is the highest since the GFC pic.twitter.com/p0YRh85m4V

— Global_Macro (@Marcomadness2) September 2, 2026

Global Investors now own close to $40 Trillion of U.S. Assets, the most in history 🚨 🚨 pic.twitter.com/x7sappQLjw

— Barchart (@Barchart) September 3, 2026

*Focus on AI

OpenAI Hits Back At Apple In Trade Secrets Lawsuit https://t.co/NW4HEQubzw

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 3, 2026

Lutnick said that Anthropic has patched its relationship with the Trump administration, signaling a possible end to months of sharp differences over security between the US and the AI developer https://t.co/kC3XcDD5Ph

— Bloomberg (@business) September 2, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

🇺🇸 *ADP US AUG. PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT RISES 38,000; EST. +47K – BBG

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

US Durable Goods Orders (M/M) Jul F: 1.1% (est 1.1%; prev 1.1%)
– Durables Ex-Transportation (M/M): 0.4% (est 0.4%; prev 0.4%)
– Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (M/M): 0.0% (est 0.3%; prev 0.2%)
– Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (M/M): 1.2% (est 1.4%; prev 1.4%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 2, 2026

🇺🇸 US retail diesel prices hit the highest since mid-2022, topping a peak seen during the early stages of the Iran war to approach a record – Bloomberg
*The national average pump price climbed to $5.783 a gallon on Wednesday, surpassing the wartime peak set in April, and is…

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2026

🇺🇸🌎 US Gulf Coast diesel prices hit all-time high amid global supply disruptions – S&P Globalhttps://t.co/jZEv9sXOtv

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

1yr inflation swap has zoomed from 1.8% to 2.5% @AugurInfinity pic.twitter.com/nce02KNFGa

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) September 2, 2026

BREAKING 🚨: Lumber

Lumber falls to its lowest price of the year and is approaching a bear market after plunging 17% from July's high 📉 📉 pic.twitter.com/V6dUXMqUeO

— Barchart (@Barchart) September 2, 2026

BREAKING: The 60+ day delinquency rate on US subprime auto loans is up to ~5.2%, the highest on record.

This figure has more than doubled over the last 4 years.

Serious delinquency rates on subprime auto loans are now ~1.7 percentage points above their 2008 Financial Crisis… pic.twitter.com/7T5fOEiTtr

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 3, 2026

Monetary Policy

New York Fed President John Williams maintained his view that "the trend in inflation" is "moving slowly down as some of the effects of the tariffs can move into the rearview mirror."

In his CNBC interview, he didn't sound like someone itching to raise rates, but does note that…

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 2, 2026

🇺🇸 #Fed’s Beige Book Shows Economic Activity Up Modestly – Bloomberghttps://t.co/EvtItzusE1

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2026

The US economy is less sensitive to interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. To combat inflation and tame yields on long-dated debt, more aggressive hikes will be needed. That’s bad news for bonds. https://t.co/bWFpYGeEJh

— Bloomberg (@business) September 3, 2026

Fiscal Policy

🇺🇸🇮🇷 America now pays more to service its debt than to run its military, and the Iran war is pushing both numbers UP

Net interest so far this fiscal year: $931 billion.

National defense: $804 billion.

The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest in nearly three years Wednesday… pic.twitter.com/ZnqgMWR5fK

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 3, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Focus on Middle East conflict

BREAKING: President Trump is having private discussions with senior aides about potentially declaring the Iran War over, per WSJ.

Aides are reportedly advising President Trump that an escalation of the war beyond recent strikes could cost Republicans the midterm elections.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 3, 2026

Qatar And UAE Turn To Rare LNG Ship Transfers As Hormuz Crisis Drags On https://t.co/OoBTZOvu0k

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 3, 2026

Asia/Middle East

Markets

🇯🇵 Yen Surges With Traders on High Alert for Further Intervention – Bloomberghttps://t.co/DK7AhrEJ4a pic.twitter.com/GOUqQEA9nf

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

Yen Traders Brace For Holiday Intervention Risk Around BoJ – BBGhttps://t.co/SNsfEYrc0S

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 3, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Australia Trade Balance Jul: A$1923M (est A$1500M; prev A$1929M)

– Exports (M/M): -3.3% (prev 9.6%)
– Imports (M/M): -2.5% (prev -0.2%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 3, 2026

Very strong El Nino to run through February as Asia impacts build https://t.co/yFxFuUQqol

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) September 3, 2026

Housing

🇨🇳 Limited Upside Seen for #China Home Prices Under New Rules – Securities Times

➡ China’s housing market remains well supplied and lacks the conditions for a sharp increase in home prices, the Securities Times reports, citing industry experts.

➡ Responding to concerns that…

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2026

Monetary Policy

🇯🇵 #BOJ IS SAID TO FAVOR QUARTER-POINT HIKE, FLEXIBLE FUTURE PACE – BBG

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2026

🇯🇵 #Japan | #BOJ Is Said to Favor Quarter-Point Hike, Flexible on Future Path – Bloomberghttps://t.co/jXz1TK4nk7

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2026

Fiscal Policy

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

🇨🇳 🌎 China-US Spat at G20 Largely Came Down to Dispute Over One Word – Bloomberghttps://t.co/u6PjLYuTK8 pic.twitter.com/CJaXkifP9e

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2026

🇨🇳🇪🇺MOFCOM: China-EU talks must not impose unilateral demands or conditions
MOFCOM spokesperson Huang Ling, responding to remarks by EU trade and economic security commissioner Šefčovič, said China-EU consultations at all levels should preserve a stable, balanced China-EU trade…

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 3, 2026

Europe

Markets

🇫🇷 French 10yr Yield prints a new 15yrs high (highest since Nov 2008), now at 4.268%.

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

Here's a chart. pic.twitter.com/RScg62EzBm

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 2, 2026

🇩🇪 Volkswagen's road to restructuring – Reutershttps://t.co/8b9FHq83G4 https://t.co/SJ6ohTgLin

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2026

The rout in UK gilts means it really can’t afford to keep ducking cuts to gold-plated pensions and other indefensible public spending, writes @RosaFPrince https://t.co/hnYX3AwcjU via @opinion pic.twitter.com/UVsMzpt7dE

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 3, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

🇩🇪 DIW raises German economic growth forecasts as exports beat expectations – Reutershttps://t.co/QL7OJiGWOu

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2026

Germany's IFW Economic Institute Raises 2026 Economic Growth Forecast To 1.3% From 0.8% Previously, Maintains 2027 Forecast For 1.0% Growth

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 3, 2026

AfD election fears stoke alarm among German business leaders https://t.co/8wYzQDVfK9 via @ArneDelfs pic.twitter.com/TG6kjlEtEA

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 2, 2026

Eurozone S&P Global Services PM Aug F: 51.6 (est 51.7; prev 51.7)
– Composite PMI: 52.0 (est 52.1; prev 52.1)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 3, 2026

🇪🇺 My proxies and regional surveys suggest #Eurozone PPI (July) should beat expectations ⚠

➡ Bloomberg consensus:
*PPI MoM: 1.3%e v -0.3% prior
*PPI YoY: 5.5%e v 4.6% prior

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2026

Spain’s push on undocumented migrants distorts labor statistics https://t.co/duKH9u3r80 via @basteiro pic.twitter.com/SjO1DElLSK

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 2, 2026

🇨🇭 Swiss Inflation Jumps More Than Expected to Fastest in Two Years – Bloomberghttps://t.co/5anV5rvSyM pic.twitter.com/W7Zb12VeAl

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2026

Switzerland GDP Q2 (Q/Q): 1.9% (est 1.7%; prev 0.7%; prev R 0.6%)
– GDP (Y/Y): 2.8% (est 2.2%; prev 0.5%)
– Sport Event Adjusted GDP (Q/Q) F: 1.5% (est 1.5%; prev 1.5%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 3, 2026

UK digital investment soars to dot-com boom levels on AI rollout https://t.co/gxHZwbqYgv via @tomelleryrees pic.twitter.com/VfFAnuFKek

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 3, 2026

UK S&P Global Services PMI Aug F: 52.5 (est 52.8; prev 52.8)
– Composite PMI: 52.5 (est 52.5; prev 52.5)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 3, 2026

Monetary Policy

Merz to meet ECB Governing Council before Berlin rate meeting next week https://t.co/0PufZYpZ8J pic.twitter.com/KHeQdODC8b

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 3, 2026

Danish central bank intervenes again to defend currency peg https://t.co/Wn0uHqjXF7 via @sanne_wass pic.twitter.com/fF75MsKLGn

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 2, 2026

Fiscal Policy

🇫🇷 Déficit, dette, impôts : le rapporteur du Budget demande aux candidats à la présidentielle de sortir du bois – Les Echoshttps://t.co/BoUXerhON3https://t.co/ffw5OhX5Uo

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2026

German tax-relief proposal reveals strife in Merz coalition https://t.co/Zp6MFycrui via @KowalczeKamil pic.twitter.com/fdagYtzApR

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 2, 2026

Energy

🇪🇺 #Europe’s #Gas Gamble Risks Higher Prices in Global Supply Fight – Bloomberghttps://t.co/9XK5S13M43 pic.twitter.com/Sg68e1vgZG

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

⚡️Update: Zelensky dismisses high-ranking SBU official, demands investigation after shootout between Ukraine's security services in Kyiv.

President Zelensky has dismissed Oleg Khramov, head of the SBU's department for the protection of state secrets.https://t.co/fpS5KuCG8k

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 2, 2026

Other Areas And Global Economy

⚠ #WeekAhead #Preview: Week 36 (2026) ⚠

🌎 #G20 Ministers Gathering
🇨🇦 🇳🇿 #BoC and #RBNZ Meetings
🇺🇸 #Fed Beige Book
🇺🇸 🇨🇦 U.S. and Canada Employment Reports
🇪🇺 🇰🇷 #Eurozone, #Switzerland and #SouthKorea CPIs
…https://t.co/rKnvpYBKit

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 30, 2026

*Note: Previous briefs can be found here