M — Morning Briefs

Morning Brief: U.S. Consumer Confidence Plunges; China’s Economic Activity Rebounds; China’s Stimulus Push Falls Flat With Markets; French CPI Came Above Expectations

30 septembre, 2026
Morning Brief

Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

The dollar is wrapping up its best month since June as the Federal Reserve’s renewed focus on taming inflation pushed interest-rate expectations and US bond yields higher https://t.co/UJPbIl55Lh

— Bloomberg (@business) September 30, 2026

JUST IN 🚨: U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield closes at 5.59%, the highest closing level since 2001 👀 pic.twitter.com/RSYVyqi465

— Barchart (@Barchart) September 29, 2026

Cayman Islands Hedge Funds are buying U.S. Treasury Bills at the fastest pace in history 🚨 🚨 pic.twitter.com/1Aj1GQYnFd

— Barchart (@Barchart) September 30, 2026

Muni debt is poised for its worst monthly performance in nearly 40 years amid a global bond shakeout https://t.co/nY1kVNg4xP

— Bloomberg (@business) September 29, 2026

*Focus on AI

🇺🇲 #OpenAI's annual recurring revenue nears $70B – Axioshttps://t.co/5oyUHynLN5

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 30, 2026

🇺🇲 #OpenAI Targets $30 Billion in Funding at $1.4 Trillion Value – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ze4DsjBoP7

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 30, 2026

Guess those plunging token prices mattered after all https://t.co/UkqG31ZDPz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 30, 2026

I’m not sure how reliable TickerTrends’ data is. Anthropic’s growth rate has dropped sharply, and OAI’s growth has slowed as well. pic.twitter.com/8DlP1NKDZM

— Jukan (@jukan05) September 29, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

🇺🇲 US Consumer Confidence Plunges to Lowest Level Since 2014 – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ZXiYzu3o4B pic.twitter.com/yvVATgYyFf

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 30, 2026

🇺🇲 US Sept. Consumer Confidence Falls to 81.9, Below All Estimates – Bloomberg
– Prior month revised to 88.6 from 89.4
– Present situation confidence fell to 109.3 from 117.2
– Consumer confidence expectations fell to 63.6 from 69.5

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 29, 2026

🇺🇲 US Job Openings Fall to Lowest Since March, Layoffs Subdued – Bloomberghttps://t.co/MshTHers3Q pic.twitter.com/UpTq8HnpUk

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 30, 2026

Record Plunge In Real-Estate Job Opening Sends JOLTS Sharply Lower, Hints At Ugly Jobs Report https://t.co/kq3LSpty3l

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 29, 2026

🇺🇲 The ratio of vacancies to unemployed workers fell to about 1.007 in August, from 1.061 in July ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/R6pbVJ29h5

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 30, 2026

Why Has The US Economy Been So Resilient To Soaring Rates And Higher Oil Prices? Goldman Explains https://t.co/fHNC2BuoTD

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 30, 2026

The Trump administration is releasing more oil from the nation’s emergency reserve as fuel prices surge less than two months before the midterm elections https://t.co/ffUxgYJTrO

— Bloomberg (@business) September 29, 2026

The cure to high oil prices is… a surge in active oil rigs pic.twitter.com/scFVDNBbXS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 30, 2026

Monetary Policy

Fed's Williams: If Economy Meets Expectations, One More Hike May Be Needed In Late 2026
– Sees ‘No Need For Urgency’ After September Hike
– More Data Will Help Us Decide What’s Next For Rate Policyhttps://t.co/TmfRmzEI83

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 29, 2026

This is pretty remarkable: per BBG, the October SOFR repricing didn't hit until 2:10pm ET, 5 mins after https://t.co/tQP97s99DX https://t.co/l1JwseYV5i pic.twitter.com/oVcwFNDF0d

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 30, 2026

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr on Tuesday repeated a warning that further interest-rate increases will likely be needed to slow inflation. https://t.co/rs6nBHGLJV

— Bloomberg (@business) September 29, 2026

Fiscal Policy

Today, @USTreasury and @IRSnews issued a notice on tax-motivated investment strategies that makes clear Treasury is serious about cracking down on transactions designed to dodge taxes or exploit our federal tax code. The companion Revenue Ruling also takes on prearranged §351 ETF… https://t.co/F8ZJQcx2B9

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) September 28, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Map shows the U.S. states hit hardest by Trump’s trade war with Canada – National Post https://t.co/jiSAxEENtx

— O (@O19928734) September 29, 2026

Already tense relations between the U.S. and Canada are likely to deteriorate further, as the U.S. goes ahead with a decision to ban nearly $1 billion worth of Canadian imports, including alcoholic beverages, dairy products and motorcycles. https://t.co/jENGj6kaxU

— NBC News (@NBCNews) September 29, 2026

US ban on Canadian imports takes effect – the goods that can no longer cross the border https://t.co/ARou9e1CGN pic.twitter.com/ggeAiGaXrc

— New York Post (@nypost) September 29, 2026

President Donald Trump is set to unveil South Korea’s plan to invest some $200 billion in the US, including $54 billion for a long-stalled venture to export natural gas from Alaska https://t.co/FeD3cHaKOF

— Bloomberg (@business) September 29, 2026

The White House has urged the European Union to draw down emergency diesel inventories in ‌an effort to lower ​global prices, as President Donald Trump and his administration ⁠pursue a range of options ​to ease fuel costs before November's ⁠midterm elections, according to two…

— NEWSMAX (@NEWSMAX) September 29, 2026

Focus on Middle East conflict

U.S.-Iran talks yield little, raising odds of renewed combat https://t.co/dMofN8QIc5

— Axios (@axios) September 29, 2026

Middle Eastern oil exports rise to highest level since Iran war began https://t.co/AResAwUzsm

— Financial Times (@FT) September 29, 2026

While the departure of US forces is broadly ​popular among Iraqis, some worry that security forces trained and funded by the United ⁠States still can't protectthe country, where 4,500 American forces ⁠died in more than 20 years of war.https://t.co/ZBWVVlnpEj

— The Star (@staronline) September 30, 2026

Asia/Middle East

Markets

🇨🇳 #China’s Two-Speed Economy Spurs Yawning Gap Between Stocks, Yuan – Bloomberghttps://t.co/zXQKCJVDS4 pic.twitter.com/PZHq7one4F

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 30, 2026

#MarketsWithMC | Samsung, SK Hynix almost done with buybacks that boosted Kospi

Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. said in late August they would buy back a combined 55 trillion won ($40.5 billion) of their own shares. The accelerated purchases have provided an important…

— Moneycontrol (@moneycontrolcom) September 30, 2026

Chinese-powered AI agents have learnt to deceive, circumvent restrictions and conceal failure, showing the kind of traits in autonomous artificial intelligence that have raised global alarm about US models, research documents and experts say https://t.co/Ad0RJ1ghpN

— Reuters (@Reuters) September 30, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

🇨🇳 #China’s Economic Activity Rebounds With Stimulus Lifting Outlook – Bloomberghttps://t.co/O9kh9OHYNW pic.twitter.com/uQZMS2jYFK

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 30, 2026

🇨🇳China official manufacturing PMI at 50.1 in September, matching consensus 50.1 and up from August's 49.8, returning to the expansion zone.

The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2, up 1.2 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a marked rebound in… pic.twitter.com/GI2GzzqXNQ

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 30, 2026

Chinese factory activity expands in September, driven by AI boom https://t.co/VzEsVTGxMb

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) September 30, 2026

🇨🇳 #China Coal Prices Have Jumped by Almost a Quarter Since Mid-July – Bloomberghttps://t.co/qBilR7C4Vg pic.twitter.com/WB3ZpAhbin

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 30, 2026

Australia August CPI 4.0% as fuel jumps, trimmed mean below forecast at 0.2% m/mhttps://t.co/nvlyVnAjBr

— investingLive (@investingLive_) September 30, 2026

Japan Industrial Production (M/M) Aug P: -1.7% (est 1.3%; prev -0.2%)

– Industrial Production (Y/Y): 3.4% (est 6.8%; prev 3.9%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 29, 2026

Housing

China unveils mortgage subsidies to boost economy https://t.co/lILYDcepII

— Financial Times (@FT) September 30, 2026

China unveils rate cut, mortgage subsidies to spur growth https://t.co/NXwnDoOrmp

— Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) September 29, 2026

Monetary Policy

China has started offering low-cost funding to help local government-affiliated firms settle unpaid bills https://t.co/foSsLSnf07

— Bloomberg (@business) September 29, 2026

🇨🇳 #China Expands Targeted Lending Support to Bolster Economy – Bloomberghttps://t.co/FAXobnhlYE pic.twitter.com/QVryPMF5AA

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 29, 2026

Draft Of Japan PM’s Policy Speech: Responds Swiftly To Market Trends – Nikkeihttps://t.co/0EbnV4myiW

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 30, 2026

Fiscal Policy

🇨🇳 #China’s Biggest Stimulus Push Since 2024 Falls Flat With Markets – Bloomberghttps://t.co/t8P38dfIjk pic.twitter.com/L8rmzs1mI3

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 30, 2026

South Korea tax revenue to hit fresh record on global chip boom dlvr.​it/TVj7ys pic.twitter.com/1Po21ZAT17

— The Edge Singapore (@readtheedge_sg) September 30, 2026

Japan to create state investment fund for defense startups, eyeing more drones https://t.co/P2fcfdoigS

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) September 29, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

🇨🇳 🇪🇺 China Warns Broad EU Tariffs Could Disrupt Trade Negotiations – Bloomberghttps://t.co/xEuKYWU0LS

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 30, 2026

Beijing warns of retaliation if Europe imposes curbs on Chinese businesses https://t.co/g4e6R43u1H

— CNBC (@CNBC) September 30, 2026

Europe

Markets

🚨 The 10-year OAT-Bund spread is now approaching 120 basis points, a level not seen since the euro-area debt crisis.

🇫🇷 France is currently being hit by two shocks at the same time. Long-term yields are rising everywhere but France is also underperforming Germany which means… pic.twitter.com/nIih6846Sd

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 30, 2026

The euro fell to its weakest level in 16 months as expectations that the Federal Reserve will further boost interest rates supports the US dollar. https://t.co/jyOkZrEmkc

— Bloomberg (@business) September 29, 2026

Berlin expects UniCredit commitments on Commerzbank, sources say https://t.co/qU2ygimpIr https://t.co/qU2ygimpIr

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) September 29, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

🇫🇷 #FRANCE PRELIM SEPT. HARMONIZED CPI FALLS 0.4% M/M; EST. -0.5% – BBG
*FRANCE PRELIM SEPT. HARMONIZED CPI RISES 3.4% Y/Y; EST. +3.2%

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 30, 2026

French inflation quickens to highest in more than two years https://t.co/gmXwlWcYue via @WHorobin pic.twitter.com/PEN5Wq6DNy

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 30, 2026

France Consumer Spending (M/M) Aug: -0.5% (est 0.0%; prev 0.5%; prev R 0.4)
– Consumer Spending (Y/Y): 0.8% (prev 1.4%; prev R 1.3%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 30, 2026

France PPI (M/M) Aug: 1.0% (prev 1.1%; prev R 1.3%)
– France PPI (Y/Y): 4.8% (prev 3.4%; prev R 3.5%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 30, 2026

German industry becoming less competitive, executives say https://t.co/4QYrxmv5Jn via @LibbyCherry98 pic.twitter.com/Gaa25mfEma

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 29, 2026

Britain’s young jobseekers try to kickstart their careers abroad https://t.co/OzHKwXCuWD via @irinaanghel12 pic.twitter.com/hUfcyKfiPs

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 30, 2026

Germany Retail Sales (M/M) Aug: 1.3% (est 1.5% prev -3.4%)
-Germany Retail Sales SA (Y/Y): -0.4% (est -0.5%; prev -2.5%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 30, 2026

Germany Import Price Index (M/M) Aug: 1.0% (est 0.7%; prev 0.2%)
– Import Price Index (Y/Y): 8.3% (est 8.0%; prev 6.8%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 30, 2026

UK GDP (Q/Q) Q2 F:0.5 % (est 0.4%; prev 0.4%)
– GDP (Y/Y): 1.4% (est 1.2%; prev 1.2%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 30, 2026

UK Exports (Q/Q) Q2 F: 2.8 % (est 0.5%; prev 0.5%)
– Imports (Q/Q): 0.0% (est 0.5%; prev 0.5%)
– Total Business Investment (Q/Q): 1.8% (est 1.7%; prev 1.7%)
– Total Business Investment (Y/Y): 5.2% (est 0.8%; prev 0.8%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 30, 2026

Housing

Spain approves emergency housing measures to curb unrest https://t.co/NRL6LLohiF via @basteiro pic.twitter.com/Mxk2L2IBt3

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 29, 2026

Monetary Policy

Riksbank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – Full Reporthttps://t.co/efqq37qiwV

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 30, 2026

Fiscal Policy

France plans to sell a record €340 billion of bonds in 2027 https://t.co/ybHkyVs5Bk via @highisland @WHorobin @alicegledhill1 pic.twitter.com/G8fIwoKjaX

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 29, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

France hit by public-service staff protests and student unrest https://t.co/9Pi53UHnoG pic.twitter.com/Uaen34SP7o

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 29, 2026

🇫🇷 #France | Sondage : avec 82 % d’opinions défavorables, Emmanuel Macron atteint son record d’impopularité, sur fond de grogne sur les carburants – Public Sénathttps://t.co/bIZB373AWF

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 30, 2026

French President Macron's Approval Rate Hits Record Low As Fuel Crisis Worsens https://t.co/vcpplT2Mgz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 30, 2026

German far-right AfD aims to lead Saxony-Anhalt after December vote https://t.co/0KKQvvrlfP via @KowalczeKamil pic.twitter.com/X6sj6GT7wu

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 29, 2026

Why Germany’s Merz is caught in a political vise https://t.co/pbO23IaTLn via @ACBerlin pic.twitter.com/KsSGL3njdR

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 30, 2026

Andy Burnham opens the door to rejoining the EU after the UK’s next general election, vowing to set out options for a new relationship with the bloc later this year https://t.co/OgjeMVQBoO via @LucyGJWhite pic.twitter.com/hx1NYXZurE

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 29, 2026

Moscow Closes The Door: How Putin & Lavrov Hardened Russia's Line On Ukraine In Ten Days https://t.co/V0eL5JOStt

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 30, 2026

Other Areas And Global Economy

⚠ #WeekAhead #Preview: Week 40 (2026) ⚠️

🇺🇸 U.S. #Jobs Report
🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇦🇺 🇰🇷 🇯🇵 U.S., Eurozone, Australia, SK and Tokyo #Inflation Reports
🇦🇺 #RBA Meeting
🌎 Central Bank Speeches from the #Fed, #ECB, and #BOE
…https://t.co/W0nfzJtUnm

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 27, 2026