Morning Brief: U.S. and Iran Exchange Attacks; The Agricultural Market is Starting to Wake Up; China’s Factory Activity Extends Slump; Iceland Votes to Reject the EU
Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Americas
Markets
Goldman Traders' Top Charts: Record Returns, Record Debt, & A Market Supported By Fewer & Fewer Stocks https://t.co/1dkId1IpoT
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 28, 2026
According to JPM's work, today was the largest move in the 2-year following a Jackson Hole speech this century. https://t.co/9ABmHL7eFq pic.twitter.com/iF3NzRJNmb
— Neil Sethi NEW account, please refollow (@neilsethinew) August 28, 2026
Rate hike bets post-September continued to climb throughout the Friday session ending with the chance of a hike this year at 89% from 75% Thursday.
— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) August 29, 2026
Two hikes are 51% priced this year and 100% priced by March according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool. https://t.co/Awnu8dWOM6 pic.twitter.com/CyqF3UFXud
BofA's Hartnett (Flow Show) says "Warsh bull success at Jackson Hole is yield curve bull flattening."
— Neil Sethi NEW account, please refollow (@neilsethinew) August 28, 2026
Warsh needs to be both "credibly hawkish on inflation to anchor short-end", as well as "flirtatiously long-end dovish in support of Bessent buybacks".
If he should "thread… https://t.co/RWrE50WfXq pic.twitter.com/4w2UsZVYto
DB: Our measure of aggregate equity positioning ticked up this week and remains modestly overweight at 0.30 standard deviations, or the 62nd percentile.
— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) August 30, 2026
Discretionary investor positioning rose slightly to near-neutral, at -0.02 standard deviations and the 45th percentile.… pic.twitter.com/P7xkJYzJcK
Goldman on buybacks:
— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) August 30, 2026
"Our desk volumes maintained a strong trajectory this week as corporate activity remained near peak open-window capacity. Against a backdrop of typical late-August liquidity constraints—further characterized by macro shifts, rate-curve adjustments, and… pic.twitter.com/VBWG50l95n
*Focus on AI
Torsten Slok: "If AI succeeds rates will be lower. If AI fails, rates will be lower."
— Neil Sethi NEW account, please refollow (@neilsethinew) August 29, 2026
"Long rates are high today because of inflation and fiscal problems. But these forces could end up being dominated in early 2027 by what happens to AI, see the first chart below.
"If AI… pic.twitter.com/16PNeoLIal
Anthropic is expected to raise more than the $86 billion SpaceX raised in its IPO, while potentially giving existing investors and employees a way to sell shares in the deal.
— The Information (@theinformation) August 28, 2026
More details: https://t.co/K4vElPAJvi
Economic Indicators and Prospects
US Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Aug F: 51.7 (est 51.0; prev 51.0)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 28, 2026
– Current Conditions: 51.9 (est 52.0; prev 51.8)
– Expectations: 51.5 (est 51.4; prev 50.6)
– 1-Year Inflation: 4.0% (est 4.4%; prev 4.3%)
– 5-10 Year Inflation: 3.3% (est 3.3%; prev 3.3%)
The benchmark revision to NFP (where it is "trued up" against actual state-level unemployment insurance data) for the 12-month period ending March 2026 is out, and while we didn't quite get the positive revision expected (BBG consensus was +183k), we also didn't see anything like… https://t.co/8lmmlizpmU pic.twitter.com/B4PQTugZpL
— Neil Sethi NEW account, please refollow (@neilsethinew) August 28, 2026
Monetary Policy
Fiscal Policy
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
President Trump announces (confirmed by Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, per the attached post) that the US will take a majority interest (55%) in 65 million barrels of Venezuela oil reserves.
— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) August 29, 2026
A US official said the joint project of the US government and an… https://t.co/AZ2unwXVqa pic.twitter.com/EFre2dXPaH
Colombia’s government moved to officially end talks with some of the nation’s armed rebel groups, effectively halting the peace process that began under former President Gustavo Petro https://t.co/pG9zg9wXUv
— Bloomberg (@business) August 30, 2026
Focus on Middle East conflict
The US military on Sunday struck Iranian rocket launchers that were preparing to send mines into the Strait of Hormuz, a US official said, following weeks of relative calm. https://t.co/5VO6vk0K6W
— Bloomberg (@business) August 30, 2026
Asia/Middle East
Markets
Shares skid in Asia as oil climbs, yields stay high https://t.co/i9vTBLxZdo https://t.co/i9vTBLxZdo
— Reuters (@Reuters) August 31, 2026
CXMT filed a lawsuit against the US Department of Defense, seeking removal from a blacklist that identified the Chinese chipmaker as a supporter of the Communist country’s military https://t.co/uH66alM0LP
— Bloomberg (@business) August 29, 2026
SK Hynix Weighs Japan Memory Fab Partnership To Supply AI Boom – BBGhttps://t.co/yBoYPxw1QJ
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 31, 2026
Economic Indicators and Prospects
China will start checking the security of its military supply chains, joining other nations in ramping up self-reliance of their defense industries https://t.co/WED4W5TATX
— Bloomberg (@business) August 31, 2026
Japan Retail Sales (M/M) Jul: 2.4% (est 1.6%; prev -4.1%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 30, 2026
– Retail Sales (Y/Y): 4.0% (est 3.3%; prev 0.5%)
– Department Store, Supermarket Sales (Y/Y): 1.4% (prev -1.0%)
Japan Industrial Production Prelim (M/M) Jul: 0.1% (est -0.7%; prev 1.9%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 30, 2026
– Industrial Production Prelim (Y/Y): 4.1% (est 3.3%; prev 4.9%)
Australia Private Sector Credit (M/M) Jul: 0.6% (est 0.7%; prev 0.8%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 31, 2026
– Private Sector Credit (Y/Y): 8.4% (prev 8.5%)
Housing
Caixing: "China’s financial regulators introduced sweeping real estate financing rules on Friday, extending the maximum mortgage term to 40 years and delaying loan issuance for presale homes until construction is completed."https://t.co/Ia60eCRvzO
— Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) August 29, 2026
Monetary Policy
US Trsy’s Bessent Expects BoJ To ‘Do The Right Thing’ On Monetary Policy – BBGhttps://t.co/dIV58WBBEg
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 31, 2026
Fiscal Policy
Japanese bond yields have climbed so sharply that analysts say Government Pension Investment Fund may be justified in eventually raising its domestic debt allocation target from 25% to seek higher returns. https://t.co/NLqVvxGrOn
— Bloomberg (@business) August 31, 2026
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s popularity remained relatively steady in media polls conducted over the weekend, with inflation remaining a top concern for the public https://t.co/77Il1MIXtH
— Bloomberg (@business) August 31, 2026
Europe
Markets
Turkey’s markets regulator announced new rules limiting hedge funds’ exposure to related parties and capping concentrated investments, in a bid to address concerns about abnormal returns and repeated warnings from global index providers https://t.co/aDQpZMXSWV
— Bloomberg (@business) August 29, 2026
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Alors même que les Allemands bossent trois semaines de plus que nous par an (hors travail partiel)… https://t.co/QS8R6KkF8W
— Raphael LEGENDRE (@LEGENRA) August 30, 2026
Poland expects its economic growth to slow to 2% by the end of the decade as the government steps up efforts to tackle the fiscal deficit https://t.co/fac6UN44Ks
— Bloomberg (@business) August 29, 2026
Monetary Policy
ECB’s Schnabel calls for central-bank money on blockchain https://t.co/LEExDiZyXh via @weberalexander pic.twitter.com/cyOhvPpI33
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) August 28, 2026
Bailey plays down inflation threat before BOE rate decision https://t.co/hXjdadLxxS via @irinaanghel12 @lisaabramowicz1 pic.twitter.com/X9vsqpHvOw
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) August 28, 2026
Fiscal Policy
France’s Lecornu warns a budget impasse may fuel political instability https://t.co/yelcSXq3uY via @nayrazz pic.twitter.com/erZIeRDK1D
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) August 30, 2026
Portugal 'A+/A-1' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Positive On Resilient Economic Growth – S&Phttps://t.co/HylgeQap6j
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 28, 2026
Healey seeks drama-free UK budget as economic heat rises for Burnham’s government https://t.co/A2HgT8aPUV via @Joe_Mayes @EllenAMilligan pic.twitter.com/UMSad15W0X
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) August 29, 2026
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Sweden’s far-right leader seeks a comeback as election nears https://t.co/4Hu4C7SCI2 via @CharlesDuxbury pic.twitter.com/3C4I9nJhe8
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) August 29, 2026
French Socialist head to join race to succeed President Macron https://t.co/0cooLCVGwd via @Newsbaum_ @nayrazz pic.twitter.com/mPtmNPSZOC
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) August 30, 2026
Germany's finance minister plans to advocate for ending economically damaging conflicts, including tariff disputes and the wars in Iran and Ukraine, during talks with Group of 20 peers in the US next week. https://t.co/wi6H13wMCd
— Bloomberg (@business) August 30, 2026
Other Areas And Global Economy
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here