Morning Brief: Impasse In Debt Ceiling Talks; Japan Manufacturers’ Mood Turns Positive; UK CPI Exceeded Expectations
Americas
Markets
CDS on treasuries is at a height we've never seen before, while Nasdaq calls are the highest in 8 years.
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) May 24, 2023
What happens to the liquidity in risk assets when you suddenly take the fear out of safe assets by passing the debt ceiling? https://t.co/FQUZXdc38m pic.twitter.com/0VZ7msPD1X
*Focus on banks
US Regional Banks Swap $220bn In Deposits To Soothe Insurance Nerves – FThttps://t.co/chnTFJUWko
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 24, 2023
$PACW PacWest Sells Real-Estate Lending Unit – WSJhttps://t.co/YvW0OlZhXU
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 24, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Consumer spending intention is fading. pic.twitter.com/eg96pqjt1E
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) May 23, 2023
US business activity rises to 13-month high in May, S&P Global survey shows https://t.co/CFoQG2nXk5 pic.twitter.com/QPkBjxaJnG
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 23, 2023
Housing
New Home Sales at 683,000 Annual Rate in April
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) May 23, 2023
Median New Home Price is Down 15.3% from the Peak https://t.co/gqfZ2rdPBg pic.twitter.com/eQb37Jrzct
The median price of a new home sold in the US is down 15% from its peak last October. After the last housing bubble peak the median new home price fell 22% nationally. pic.twitter.com/8iT7cpRD7X
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) May 23, 2023
Sharp declines in housing units authorized have systematically preceded recessions since 1960 pic.twitter.com/k2Cy5PL33f
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) May 23, 2023
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) May 23, 2023
Monetary Policy
Investors Bet Fed Will Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer – FThttps://t.co/ebUP821eGq
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 24, 2023
🇺🇸 #Fed Tracks Market Sentiment With New Index Built from 4.4 Million #Tweets – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ru0acM6NmT
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 24, 2023
*Direct link: https://t.co/w6lRa4RNgh pic.twitter.com/tgAuvPkCif
Fiscal Policy
🇺🇸 McCarthy, Graves Signal Impasse in White House Debt Talks – Bloomberghttps://t.co/srSGrfWfyo
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 24, 2023
Republicans question June 1 debt ceiling deadline as talks zero in on potential trade-offs https://t.co/h79qnPzmrc
— CNBC (@CNBC) May 23, 2023
Fed Chair Jerome Powell avoided discussing debt-limit negotiations Tuesday during a closed-door meeting with a group of House Democrats as a standoff over raising the federal borrowing limit continued in Washington https://t.co/SuucWvRraA
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 23, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
US Reluctance On Trade Deals Sends Latin America Towards China – FThttps://t.co/6s9KhyLCpo
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 24, 2023
US Lawmaker Demands Action Against Chinese Chip Firm CXMT After Micron – RTRShttps://t.co/GDQkmy8ZNJ
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 24, 2023
U.S. House votes to overturn heavy duty truck emissions rules https://t.co/Om8pwYt4XC pic.twitter.com/0LtozMSJ7a
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 24, 2023
Asia
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Australia Recession Risk Rises As Rates Seen Higher For Longer – BBG https://t.co/8dfxgCotWn
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 24, 2023
Japan Manufacturers' Mood Turns Positive As Economy Recovers – RTRShttps://t.co/NoOVEdAdkI
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 23, 2023
Monetary Policy
The Monetary Policy Committee today voted to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 5.25% to 5.50% to ensure that consumer price inflation returns to the 1-3% annual target range, while supporting maximum sustainable employment. https://t.co/7Vfnv4xXiB pic.twitter.com/kxnnuJcA8d
— Reserve Bank of NZ (@ReserveBankofNZ) May 24, 2023
New Zealand Signals Tightening Cycle Done After Raising Rate.
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) May 24, 2023
Kiwi dollar falling through the floor Wednesday.https://t.co/4YUAHAaFLi
The Bank of Korea is set to hold its policy rate for a third straight meeting, as officials cautiously navigate persistent inflation and a slowing economic growth picture https://t.co/b3GB3RsVL5
— Bloomberg (@business) May 23, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
China’s New Ambassador To US Says Relations Face ‘Serious’ Challenges – BBGhttps://t.co/jjvZqTPgVl
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 23, 2023
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇬🇧 *TRADERS RAISE #BOE RATE HIKE BETS BY 30BPS, SEE PEAK AT 5.4% – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 24, 2023
Annual inflation has continued to ease in April 2023
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) May 24, 2023
▪️ Consumer Prices Index, including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 7.8% in the 12 months to Apr 2023, down from 8.9% in Mar 2023
▪️ CPI rose by 8.7%, down from 10.1%
➡️ https://t.co/0TK0uIn6Vo pic.twitter.com/RkBH7FY6QX
UK PPI Output NSA (M/M) Apr: 0.0% (est 0.2%; prevR 0.0%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 24, 2023
– UK PPI Output NSA (Y/Y) Apr: 5.4% (est 5.8%; prevR 8.5%)
– UK PPI Input NSA (M/M) Apr: -0.3% (est 0.2%; prev 0.2%)
– UK PPI Input NSA (Y/Y) Apr: 3.9% (est 4.8%; prevR 7.3%)
Monetary Policy
ECB’s Nagel says ‘several’ interest-rate hikes still needed https://t.co/ASUisZENfa via @KowalczeKamil pic.twitter.com/Ww3YNjt7M7
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 24, 2023
ECB rate-hike delay didn’t make a massive difference, Lane says https://t.co/lndqryoQgn via @CraigStirling pic.twitter.com/ypE6okCjso
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 24, 2023
ECB’s Lagarde: ECB Rates To Reach `Sufficiently Restrictive Levels' – Frankfurter Rundschauhttps://t.co/08LXVVG3Kr
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 23, 2023
ECB's Panetta: To Decide In October On Preparation Phase For Digital Euro https://t.co/s0p6JdFrbs
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 24, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Big Drop In German Exports To China Raises Fears Over EU’s Economic Powerhouse – FT https://t.co/Re6ic2VTpp
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 24, 2023
EU and US discuss aligning investment controls with an eye on China https://t.co/emE2TN3X1X via @europressos @AlbertoNardelli @DeutschJill pic.twitter.com/szYUluziBe
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 23, 2023
France Seeks EU Deal to Avoid Repaying Rail Freight Aid
— Pascal Jacquemain 🇫🇷in🇬🇧 #BloodyMigrant (@jacquep) May 23, 2023
Repayment would lead to closure of the public freight operator and maybe the end of freight operation by rail in France.
(New private operators could however appear to replace SNCF fret)https://t.co/X1qlCTbXdB
Germany’s ruling coalition clashes over delay to heating law https://t.co/84XEmpdJf7 via @petrasorge pic.twitter.com/xo9QeK9NkS
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 24, 2023
Other Areas And Global Economy
⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 21 (2023) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 22, 2023
🇺🇸 Debt-Ceiling Angst
🇺🇸 #FOMC Minutes
🇬🇧 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 #BOE, #ECB and #FED Speakers
🌎 Preliminary PMIs
🇺🇸 U.S. Data
🇹🇷 #Turkey Returns To The Polls
…https://t.co/wBC9Fb3G2O
🌎 🇨🇳 #Copper Gripped by #China Fears as Prices Plunge Below $8,000 – Bloomberghttps://t.co/jO9PdEV9ie
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 24, 2023
The Darkside of #AIhttps://t.co/nc0DSpvwhb
— fastreveal (@fastrevealnews) May 24, 2023