M — Morning Briefs

Morning Brief: Focus on U.S. Employment Report; Norway Wealth Fund Proposes Lower Bond Holdings; German Factory Orders Beat Expectations; Focus on German State Election

04 septembre, 2026
Morning Brief

Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

Thursday's gain for the SPX was the most in a month. pic.twitter.com/6vExrP5x14

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 4, 2026

Goldman on buybacks: Activity across our desk slightly moderated last week, reflecting a natural deceleration as we move toward the Labor Day holiday in the US. We anticipate volumes will remain at this pace over the next week.

Against the macro backdrop of typical late-August… pic.twitter.com/ZaNXgmhMvp

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 3, 2026

🇺🇸 #Dollar Falls to Lowest Since May on Waller Remarks, Yen Gain – Bloomberghttps://t.co/f52rKTkZHL pic.twitter.com/P8cCqYLLIU

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 4, 2026

🇺🇸 Blackstone private credit fund maintains 5% cap as redemption requests remain elevated – Reutershttps://t.co/0yhxZuLurt

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 4, 2026

*Focus on AI

🇺🇸 #OpenAI says it has overtaken Anthropic with its latest AI model – FThttps://t.co/7lYZafjtyo

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 4, 2026

New from Ramp data: the latest threat to the AI trade. AI companies' revenues are heavily dependent on a small set of customers. 80% of OpenAI and Anthropic's enterprise revenues come from 1% of their customers, and it's not getting better.

This is a level of concentration risk… pic.twitter.com/A0Qt2l57CZ

— Ara Kharazian (@arakharazian) September 2, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

🇺🇸 US Services Pick Up, Price Gauge Jumps to Four-Year High – Bloomberghttps://t.co/Ah4uglUIkg pic.twitter.com/zuXcqV0F9V

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 4, 2026

US S&P Global Services PMI Aug F: 56.5 (est 56.8; prev 56.8)
– Composite PMI: 56.0 (est 56.1; prev 56.1)https://t.co/TePJvllltK pic.twitter.com/JVDZlFZQmS

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 3, 2026

🇺🇸 US trade deficit widens in July; capital goods imports hit record high – Reutershttps://t.co/bYtfSW8BfA

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 4, 2026

BofA on August auto sales: August US light vehicle sales decreased -2.2% YoY (selling day adjusted) to a 16.8mm SAAR, a step up from 16.3mm in July and the Bloomberg consensus at 16.3mm.

August brings YTD SAAR to 16.1mm (in line with our C26 light vehicle sales forecast), still… pic.twitter.com/4JRHGNM5n1

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 3, 2026

Initial jobless claims up to 206k vs. 205k est. & 204k prior; continuing claims at 1.779M vs. 1.784M est. & 1.771 prior… greatest increases in NY (+4.6k), HI (+0.5k), & CA (+0.4k); greatest decreases in NJ (-0.9k), PA (-0.6k), & OH (-0.6k) pic.twitter.com/KxChpGxLYl

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 3, 2026

US Unit Labour Costs Q2 F: 1.2% (est 1.3%; prev 1.3%)
-Nonfarm Productivity: 1.4% (est 1.4%; prev 1.4%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 3, 2026

🇺🇸 The share of corporate output going to workers fell to 52.8% in the second quarter, the lowest level since the series began in 1947 ⚠. That number partly explains why US corporate profits remain so strong.

➡️ The labor share is the share of output that goes to workers… pic.twitter.com/NN4L8Aoj1Y

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 4, 2026

Yardeni: Productivity growth has rebounded since it last bottomed in Q2-2017 at 0.85%, based on the annualized average of its seven-year growth rates (chart). It rose to 2.4% during Q2-2026, slightly exceeding its historical average of 2.3%.

We predict that this growth rate… pic.twitter.com/ETAW4blpez

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 3, 2026

*Focus on Employment report

🇺🇸 Alors que le rapport sur l'emploi arrive aujourd'hui, le marché de l’emploi américain est devenu nettement plus fragile. Attention quand même, il faut noter que les États-Unis sont surtout entrés dans une logique de "no hire, no fire".

📉 Les entreprises américaines… pic.twitter.com/ecudrN2iBc

— Finneko (@finneko_prgrm) September 4, 2026

GS: August Payroll Growth Has Missed Consensus Expectations in 11 of the Last 16 Years pic.twitter.com/2tp2eTlAdv

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) September 3, 2026

One thing we'll hopefully see a bounce back in Fridayis the index of aggregate weekly payrolls* — which represents the total take-home income of private employees — and was just +0.10% m/m in July, the least since it was negative in December and down from June’s revised +0.29%… pic.twitter.com/poMc7qTqlr

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 3, 2026

Housing

US 30-Year Freddie Mac Fixed Rate Mortgages 03-Sept Wk: 6.71% (prev 6.66%)
– 15-Year Freddie Mac Fixed Rate Mortgages: 6.04% (prev 5.98%)https://t.co/mWbHuzkgvC pic.twitter.com/AgptxTdSoc

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 3, 2026

Monetary Policy

Waller extends Warsh's "play the ball, not the Fed" metaphor and repurposes it to defend his particular style of communications. He likened a central bank’s reaction function to a home plate umpire's strike zone, saying batters and pitchers don't need it to be perfect, only… https://t.co/27Xqxm7EiK

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 3, 2026

Fed's Hammack: Low- to moderate-income workers are stuck in survival mode @seekingalpha pic.twitter.com/A54sC0nUdA

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) September 3, 2026

“If you look at the CPI numbers, it’s proper and responsible for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.” https://t.co/q6CVYtUcbr

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 3, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

UK-EU Alignment Is ‘Problem’ For US Trade Deal, Says Top Trump Official – FThttps://t.co/sdt9GopTOe

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 4, 2026

US complains to Germany about Nagel’s yen critique and G20 Russia stance https://t.co/5kyCo0wlad via @KowalczeKamil pic.twitter.com/wCRgdPzCnj

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 3, 2026

US President Trump: Will Soon Resume Ammunition Sales To Allies – TSL
– To Seek Reimbursement From Europe For Aid To Ukraine And NATOhttps://t.co/ZOxgJTNKlB

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 3, 2026

Focus on Middle East conflict

#OOTT | South Korea Paving Way To Send Troops to Hormuz, Reports Say – BBGhttps://t.co/aN5oJyvFIo

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 4, 2026

Oman Quietly Rejects Iran’s Pitch For Strait Of Hormuz Fees — Despite IRGC Claim Of Deal – @nypost https://t.co/Xtgq3Ex8Y3

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 3, 2026

Vance: Don’t Know When Iran Conflict Will End, It’s Up To Iran – WPhttps://t.co/zXkSVW48FF

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 3, 2026

Asia/Middle East

Markets

🇯🇵 Carry Trade Exodus Fuels Yen Gain Ahead of #BOJ Rate Decision – Bloomberghttps://t.co/MNkRGyWoBP pic.twitter.com/7rAq9RE13h

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 4, 2026

Emerging market stocks and currencies rose as investors pared bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this month, sending the dollar lower. https://t.co/kzDUWAC8kS

— Bloomberg (@business) September 4, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

🇯🇵 Japan Households Cut Outlays for Eighth Month as Prices Rise – Bloomberghttps://t.co/xcHUjmDTM2 pic.twitter.com/YAi7obT8Wu

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 4, 2026

Philippine inflation eased for the fourth straight month in August while staying above the central bank’s target, on slower increases in utility rates and food prices https://t.co/M0bLKszXTh

— Bloomberg (@business) September 4, 2026

Indian summer for sure.. lots of record high temps this afternoon pic.twitter.com/LbmJ0eBMIa

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) September 3, 2026

Monetary Policy

The Bank of Japan could raise interest rates at three consecutive meetings through December in an extreme scenario where yen weakness persists, according to Nomura https://t.co/n2vUYSWLGw

— Bloomberg (@business) September 4, 2026

BoJ Gov Ueda To Address National Securities Convention Oct 6 – Jiji

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 4, 2026

Fiscal Policy

🇯🇵 #Japan budget requests for next fiscal year hit record $918bn – Nikkeihttps://t.co/4uyzX7maQW

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 4, 2026

🇨🇳 #China Rolls Out New Financing Tool to Spur Investment – Shanghai Securities News

➡ China has begun rolling out the first tranche of funding from its new 800 billion yuan ($119 billion) policy-backed financing instrument, a move that could help unlock as much as 10 trillion…

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 4, 2026

🇨🇳 China Unveils Five-Year Plan to Promote SME Development – Statement

➡ China released a five-year plan to promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, aiming to increase the per capita operating revenue of above-scale SMEs by about 15% cumulatively by 2030,…

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 4, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

China Warns US That G20 Obstruction Row Threatens Upcoming Summits – FThttps://t.co/C95j7Bf1tv

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 4, 2026

India will announce the final details of its Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) with the United States only after Washington agrees to offer preferential tariff terms over India's competitors, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said today

"As soon as the US is able to give… pic.twitter.com/fcpYKWEj8s

— ANI (@ANI) September 3, 2026

Europe

Markets

🇳🇴🌎 Norway Wealth Fund Proposes Cut to Government Bond Holdings – Bloomberghttps://t.co/U7BWgyPYlr pic.twitter.com/bNIPIYKWwE

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 4, 2026

Good morning.
If this FT report is confirmed, it would add to the list of historically reliable buyers of US Treasuries whose traditional role is eroding—a list that includes China (driven by geopolitics) alongside Japan and GCC economies (domestic funding demands).#economy… pic.twitter.com/lb0AX94oiA

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) September 4, 2026

Volkswagen’s growing crisis — with the company proposing factory closures and thousands of layoffs — is turning into political rocket fuel for the far-right Alternative for Germany party ahead of Sunday’s state election in Saxony-Anhalt. https://t.co/RMy8gCdYh4

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) September 3, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

🇪🇺 *EURO AREA JULY PRODUCER PRICES RISE 1.6% M/M; EST. +1.3% – BBG
*EURO AREA JULY PRODUCER PRICES RISE 5.8% Y/Y; EST. +5.5%https://t.co/a6eebcCnaN

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2026

🇩🇪 #GERMANY JULY FACTORY ORDERS RISE 13.1% Y/Y; EST. +10.5% – BBG
*GERMANY JULY FACTORY ORDERS RISE 2.5% M/M; EST. +0.3%

It seems coherent with ⬇

1️⃣ Germany's IfW raises 2026 growth forecast as economy regains momentum – Reutershttps://t.co/vzUldD2C8K

2️⃣ Germany's RWI…

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 4, 2026

France declares 5th heat wave after hottest summer ever https://t.co/hYnAmcOsV8 via @nayrazz pic.twitter.com/R4WVy8kRAo

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 3, 2026

Monetary Policy

ECB met on banking competitiveness after EU revamp plan https://t.co/H8A3qRtfgg via @jrandow pic.twitter.com/6MGOkolJK1

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 4, 2026

Schnabel may leave the ECB early to join the IMF, Handelsblatt reports https://t.co/NaRBS8WAWF pic.twitter.com/mrBcosB3mc

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 4, 2026

Merz to meet ECB Governing Council before Berlin rate meeting next week https://t.co/0PufZYpZ8J pic.twitter.com/KHeQdODC8b

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 3, 2026

Economists see final ECB hike next week in split with markets https://t.co/lehl16Tkjd via @jrandow pic.twitter.com/uquj8zAYSw

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 4, 2026

BoE’s Pill Fears Central Banks Being Pushed To Finance Deficits – BBGhttps://t.co/KWpKoAQoUD

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 3, 2026

BoE’s Pill Favors 4% Bank Rate To Address Persistent Inflation Riskshttps://t.co/WjTak0MXl6 pic.twitter.com/UhgoEv5JWS

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 3, 2026

Fiscal Policy

🇫🇷 French Lawmaker Urges Fast-Track Budget to Avoid Costly Impasse – Bloomberghttps://t.co/KpgKpncX7Dhttps://t.co/EXmJNToBvw pic.twitter.com/87swE6vBaC

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2026

Energy

Europe heads into winter with low gas supplies https://t.co/EbSmT9RNvY via @suzannelynch1 pic.twitter.com/7eJ9Saa45J

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 3, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

🇩🇪 🇨🇳 Germany’s Ruling SPD Backs EU Tariffs on Chinese Hybrid Cars – Bloomberghttps://t.co/VZOuplMoeXhttps://t.co/SJ6ohTgLin

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 4, 2026

The European Commission unveils plans to give firms enjoying market dominance more leeway if they help boost the bloc’s “resilience,” as supply chains come under increased pressure from overseas threats https://t.co/OcaykGV1we via @SamuelStolton pic.twitter.com/Oxi3Bf5ivd

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 3, 2026

EU countries will today tell the Commission to speed up work to make it easier for new members to join the bloc.

The bruising referendum defeat in Iceland should be a wake-up call, Austria’s Europe Minister warns.

Brussels Playbook has more 👇https://t.co/Qm6Ne1Kn24

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) September 4, 2026

EU risks falling further behind the US and China, Ireland’s Martin says https://t.co/ONr63OHXZR via @livfletcher_ @suzannelynch1 @jenniduggan pic.twitter.com/XetcLGFvhE

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 3, 2026

Giorgia Meloni enters the history books, pursued by Italy’s far right https://t.co/sKk0yaHcjP via @donatopmancini pic.twitter.com/SQuQquh3OG

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 4, 2026

*Focus on German state election this weekend

🇩🇪 In an AfD Stronghold, #Germany Confronts Its Political Future – Bloomberghttps://t.co/5dodkEM0ty pic.twitter.com/2diznpYemX

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 31, 2026

Germany's Anti-Immigration AfD Party Reaches Record Support Days Before Pivotal State Election https://t.co/j2JhoePB60

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 4, 2026

Alternative for Germany is well placed to take power in a German state.

If it happens, it will raise questions about how chancellors such as Angela Merkel and Friedrich Merz failed to stop large parts of the east from veering toward the far right.

🔗 https://t.co/VV9PVYdeV2 pic.twitter.com/lauLC9J8u2

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) September 3, 2026

Other Areas And Global Economy

⚠ #WeekAhead #Preview: Week 36 (2026) ⚠

🌎 #G20 Ministers Gathering
🇨🇦 🇳🇿 #BoC and #RBNZ Meetings
🇺🇸 #Fed Beige Book
🇺🇸 🇨🇦 U.S. and Canada Employment Reports
🇪🇺 🇰🇷 #Eurozone, #Switzerland and #SouthKorea CPIs
…https://t.co/rKnvpYBKit

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 30, 2026