M — Morning Briefs

Morning Brief: Focus on U.S. Employment Report; Global Credit Market Starts to Sputter; Tokyo Inflation Acceleration; Eurozone CPI Beat Expectations

02 octobre, 2026
Morning Brief

Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

Options traders seem unperturbed by the US midterm elections, creating a potentially precarious setup for a stock market already dealing with a rout in bonds and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. https://t.co/UHgYQ5bO9H

— Bloomberg (@business) October 2, 2026

🇺🇲 Citadel Securities’ Rubner Sees Retail Cash Reloading on Stocks – Bloomberghttps://t.co/EN9Q6IU8ao pic.twitter.com/UOe0ZDqIe6

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2026

While the S&P 500 is less than 2% from a record, everything from interest-rate sensitive small-cap stocks to banks and utility companies are getting battered https://t.co/fNmQnExwcI

— Bloomberg (@business) October 1, 2026

MSFT, NVDA, AAPL and META alone added about 300 points to the S&P in Q3, more than 200% of the index's total gain. The other 499-ish stocks together subtracted about 150 points: Citadel

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2026

*Focus on AI

Source: https://t.co/EvPfZ2lFtD

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2026

*AMAZON SEEKS TO OFFLOAD $8B NVIDIA CHIPS TO INVESTORS: FT

SPV sale leaseback. More off-balance sheet gimmicks

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

ISM Sees Manufacturing Remaining Robust, Pushing Up Input Prices

ISM Manufacturing Index indicates expansion for a ninth month — the longest streak since 2022 — but prices paid jump 6.8 points to the highest since May.https://t.co/yUGqQFlXCz https://t.co/kdnb09uYCD pic.twitter.com/XYiYvRnxhL

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) October 1, 2026

Initial Jobless Claims Remain Near 57-Year Lows; Continuing Claims a 3-Year Low

Initial unemployment claims held below 200,000 for a third straight week (only ninth week since 1969), while continuing claims dropped to their lowest since March 2023.https://t.co/x3JrZN8MSK https://t.co/VUa7H2Rc4U pic.twitter.com/oF22sQtdnv

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) October 1, 2026

US Initial Jobless Claims Sep 26: 197K (est 200K; prev 197K; prev R 198K)
– Continuing Claims Sep 19: 1.701M (est 1.725M; prev 1.719M; prev R 1712K)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 1, 2026

*Focus on U.S. Employment Report

September Jobs Preview And How To Trade It: Beware A Bond Squeeze As August Seasonals Reverse https://t.co/KANK8NCrCE

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2026

Little drama seen in final report before midterm elections https://t.co/pDrirdx6Rn

— Bloomberg (@business) October 2, 2026

Monetary Policy

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan says the Fed likely will need to raise rates by at least another 50 bps to ensure inflation doesn’t settle above the central bank’s 2% goal.

Logan said those additional increases, together with September’s, would merely reverse the three cuts the…

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 1, 2026

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson signals officials may want more time before raising rates again, echoing NY Fed's John Williams. Two of the Fed's top leaders are now obliquely casting doubt on an October hike that had been increasingly priced by investors a few days ago.
 
From… https://t.co/X10vhmJvat

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 1, 2026

🇺🇸 Jefferson Says #Fed May Need More Time to Weigh Next Move – Bloomberghttps://t.co/kanY7ZpF0R

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2026

Fed's Kashkari: 'I Don't Have A Strong View' About October Rate Hike
– Is Open-minded About How Fast Fed Should Raise Interest Rates
– Says His September Rate Projections Were For One More Hike This Year, another In 2027
– Doesn't See Meaningful Tightening In Financial Conditions…

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 1, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

🛢️ 🇺🇲🇪🇺 US TELLS FRANCE AND GERMANY TO RELEASE EMERGENCY DIESEL STOCKS OR FACE POSSIBLE US DIESEL EXPORT BAN, SAY THREE SOURCES CLOSE TO THE DISCUSSIONS – RTRS
*US WANTS THE EU TO RELEASE 120 MILLION BARRELS OF DIESEL IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS, ONE OF THE SOURCES SAID

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 1, 2026

Donald Trump’s threat to halt U.S. diesel exports could leave Europe’s truckers facing another sharp rise in fuel costs — and consumers paying more for goods.https://t.co/rixISvSl6j

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) October 2, 2026

EXCLUSIVE: US tells France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face US export ban, sources say https://t.co/fntycdbWkh https://t.co/fntycdbWkh

— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2026

EXCLUSIVE: US slows aircraft-part exports to China as Trump seeks leverage in trade negotiations, sources say https://t.co/rQBA3koIZv https://t.co/rQBA3koIZv

— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2026

US won't 'sit there and take' overproduction from China: USTR Greer https://t.co/h8f3LVUnrg

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) October 1, 2026

South Korea to build 8 nuclear power plants in US, invest $120bn

Seoul says it will only invest in commercially viable projectshttps://t.co/bB5Nqyxd0b

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) October 1, 2026

EXCLUSIVE: US sees Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely next year despite 2027 timeline, sources say https://t.co/HIXnztLIP9 https://t.co/HIXnztLIP9

— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2026

Focus on Middle East conflict

🇺🇲🇮🇷 US Adds Carrier and 10,000 Troops to Mideast, Official Says – Bloomberghttps://t.co/4rkakbRTgm

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2026

🇮🇷🇺🇲 Iran Offers to Allow Nuclear Inspectors If Sanctions Are Eased – Bloomberghttps://t.co/1fnREALkFr

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2026

🇺🇲 🇮🇷 *TRUMP SEES RAMPING UP BOMBING IRAN AFTER MIDTERMS POSSIBLE:TIMEhttps://t.co/wiLhdbqYUf

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 1, 2026

US Sent More Patriots To Protect Saudi, Qatari Energy Sites – Axioshttps://t.co/cth1LxZQmY

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 2, 2026

Trump Explains Why He's Okay With North Korea Having Nukes, But Not Iran https://t.co/ciWqu7PpvP

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2026

Asia/Middle East

Markets

Hong Kong’s stock benchmark led losses in Asia as trading resumed after a holiday, pressured by a surge in US yields and disappointment over China’s latest stimulus measures https://t.co/RjKxWOI21b

— Bloomberg (@business) October 2, 2026

Japan’s bond market selloff is intensifying:

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield is up 7 basis points to 3.12%, its highest level since 1996.

The 30-year yield is also up 7 basis points to 4.19%, near its highest level on record.

The pressure comes as markets weigh further… pic.twitter.com/8bRbzUuFpC

— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) October 1, 2026

🌎 Global Credit Market Starts to Sputter as Jumbo Deals Drag – Bloomberghttps://t.co/PSM6FirOPG pic.twitter.com/ELBOX2dYnk

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2026

A Chinese financing company owned by several local government entities has funded the purchase of restricted Nvidia chips, according to documents filed with Beijing regulators https://t.co/x2V9vJtgkK

— Bloomberg (@business) October 2, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

🇯🇵 #Tokyo #Inflation Acceleration Will Keep #BOJ Alert for Overshoot – Bloomberghttps://t.co/Z4hp7D1W51 pic.twitter.com/ZZYiPyJQRr

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2026

Tokyo Core Inflation Jumps In Sep, Bolstering Case For Further BoJ Hikes – RTRShttps://t.co/3NsEbkvXW1

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 2, 2026

Japan Jobless Rate Aug: 2.5% (est 2.4%; prev 2.4%)

– Job-To-Applicant Ratio: 1.18 (est 1.18; prev 1.18)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 1, 2026

South Korea September inflation eases to 2.9% y/y, matches forecast https://t.co/u33HsZ8MM8

— Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) October 2, 2026

Monetary Policy

🇯🇵 #Japan Minister Declines to Elaborate on Remarks at BOJ Meeting – Bloomberghttps://t.co/h2YXgd8TSP

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2026

BOJ debated more rate hikes to adjust 'accommodative' conditions: opinion summary https://t.co/54EZESXZrw

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) October 1, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Chinese refiners suspend October fuel exports, one cancels cargoes, sources say https://t.co/KmNRAmJ7aK https://t.co/KmNRAmJ7aK

— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2026

Philippines sends largest ship, aircraft to drive away Chinese vessel in waters near Taiwan https://t.co/ng5iTQRTi4 https://t.co/ng5iTQRTi4

— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2026

Europe

Markets

Volvo Cars Withdraws Full Year 2026 Outlook On Volume And Cash Flow
– Q3 26 Global Sales Fall 10.7% Y/Y To 141,609 pic.twitter.com/ceNhnKVcUx

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 2, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

🇪🇺 #EUROZONE CPI YOY FLASH ACTUAL 3.8% (FORECAST 3.7%, PREVIOUS 3.2%) https://t.co/UVi5PXFUdNhttps://t.co/vIWKKICAdN pic.twitter.com/bjqSzxIkTC

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2026

🇪🇺 Euro-Zone Inflation Tops Estimates to Hit Three-Year High – Bloomberghttps://t.co/WTAlBt9XN2 pic.twitter.com/aIcevK080K

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2026

Eurozone CPI Estimate (Y/Y) Sep P: 3.8% (est 3.7%; prev 3.2%)
– CPI Core (Y/Y): 2.5% (est 2.5%; prev 2.4%)
– CPI (M/M): 0.6% (est 0.5%; prev 0.4%)
– CPI (Y/Y): 3.8% (est 3.7%; prev 3.2%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 2, 2026

Italy Retail Sales (Y/Y) Aug: 0.5% (prev 0.8%)
– Retail Sales (M/M): 0.3% (prev -0.4%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 2, 2026

Spain Unemployment Change Sep: 23.6K (prev 44.4K)
– Employment Net Change (M/M): 108.8K (prev 83.8K)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 2, 2026

UK DMP 1 Year CPI Expectations Sep: 3.3% (est 3.3%; prev 3.1%)
– 3M Output Price Expectations: 3.7% (est 3.8%; prev 3.8%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 2, 2026

UK Prelim Sept. New Car Registrations Rise 12.1% From Year Ago

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 2, 2026

🌎 Fuel Subsidies May Top $1 Trillion As Iran War Drags, UN Says – Bloomberghttps://t.co/dPpQzFTmZV pic.twitter.com/wRHlBhMIzK

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2026

World FAO World Food Price Index Sep: 136 (prev 133.3; prev R 134.0)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 2, 2026

Housing

Europe's Housing Crisis Is An Immigration Crisis, Berlin Data Confirms https://t.co/2ikAjD7Skb

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2026

Monetary Policy

ECB's Rehn: Higher Energy Prices Bring Us Closer To The ECB’s Adverse Scenario For Inflation
– ECB Projections Subject To Very High, Pervasive Uncertainty
– Rise In Long-Term Interest Rates Will Slow Growth And Reduce The Pass-Through Of Energy Shock To Prices, Wages
– One…

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 2, 2026

🇪🇺 #ECB's Rehn says soaring yields may curb inflation impact of expensive energy – Reutershttps://t.co/ms3jPPESIq

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2026

Fiscal Policy

Le Pen says she would give France a ‘golden rule’ to slash its deficit https://t.co/M7eWG9FUDm via @WHorobin pic.twitter.com/TU3XYC487J

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 2, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

France Has Proposed Plan To Release 50 M Barrels Of Diesel From Europe And 50 M Barrels Of Crude Oil Across IEA Members – RTRS Cites Source Familiar With Details Of The Discussion
– Any Agreement On Stock Releases Should Include US Commitment To Avoid Unilateral Diesel Export Ban

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 2, 2026

🇪🇺 🇨🇳 ‘Tough’ talks with China have yet to deliver, EU trade chief says – Politicohttps://t.co/JiAHBYpBFnhttps://t.co/QEVhi87ACV

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2026

ICYMI | Burnham Leaving The Door Open To Snap General Election In May 2027 – IPaperhttps://t.co/p91Q8B4bkH

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 2, 2026

Putin Has Told Military Leaders To Abandon Rules Of War, Zelenskyy Says – FThttps://t.co/LmyxeGdpoD

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 2, 2026

Russia Expels Hungarian Diplomats In Stunning Break With Orban Era https://t.co/FonQVtSZPK

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2026

Defunct US-Russia Arms Control Talks Should Have Started 'Yesterday': Kremlin https://t.co/6P0NYq90jJ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2026

Other Areas And Global Economy

⚠ #WeekAhead #Preview: Week 40 (2026) ⚠️

🇺🇸 U.S. #Jobs Report
🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇦🇺 🇰🇷 🇯🇵 U.S., Eurozone, Australia, SK and Tokyo #Inflation Reports
🇦🇺 #RBA Meeting
🌎 Central Bank Speeches from the #Fed, #ECB, and #BOE
…https://t.co/W0nfzJtUnm

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 27, 2026

🌎 World #food prices rose in September to their highest in ​nearly four years as logistics disruptions and weather concerns ‌affected crop markets, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said.
*Link: https://t.co/DtgXa4jnfe pic.twitter.com/qxw6OqzO29

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2026