F Forecasts

Eurozone Industrial Production For September Will Surprise Downward

12 November, 2020
eurozone industrial production

On Thursday, Eurostat will release the first estimate of Eurozone Industrial Prdoction (IP) for September. According to the Bloomberg consensus, on a MoM basis, Eurozone IP is expected to increase by 0.6%e (v +0.7% in August). Regional surveys and my proxies suggest that the consensus remains very optimistic.


1/ Most of regional surveys were already released and showed that IP contracted sharply in several countries:

Italy IP MoM: -5.6% v +7.4% prior

Ireland IP MoM: -4.9% v -15.5% prior

Portugal IP MoM: -3.8% v +10.4% prior


2/ It seems that countries which outperformed recently experienced a downward normalization in September, amplified by the first signs of virus resurgence. Using estimates from other countries, a drop can’t be excluded.