F Forecasts

Eurozone Industrial Production For October Will Surprise Upward

13 December, 2020
eurozone industrial production


On Monday, Eurostat will release the first estimate of Eurozone Industrial Production (IP) for October. According to the Bloomberg consensus, on a MoM basis, Eurozone IP is expected to increase by 2.0%e (v -0.4% in September). Regional surveys and my proxies suggest that the consensus is a bit pessimistic.


1- Most of regional surveys were already released and showed that IP rebounded or accelerated in several countries:

(including construction) Germany IP MoM: +3.2% v +2.3% prior

Italy IP MoM: +1.3% v -5.1% prior

Portugal IP MoM: +0.7% v -3.4% prior


2- In addition, regional data also pointed to an upward revision for September.