Eurozone Industrial Production For October Will Surprise Upward

On Monday, Eurostat will release the first estimate of Eurozone Industrial Production (IP) for October. According to the Bloomberg consensus, on a MoM basis, Eurozone IP is expected to increase by 2.0%e (v -0.4% in September). Regional surveys and my proxies suggest that the consensus is a bit pessimistic.

1- Most of regional surveys were already released and showed that IP rebounded or accelerated in several countries:

(including construction) Germany IP MoM: +3.2% v +2.3% prior

Italy IP MoM: +1.3% v -5.1% prior

Portugal IP MoM: +0.7% v -3.4% prior

2- In addition, regional data also pointed to an upward revision for September.