Eurozone Industrial Production For November Will Beat Expectations

Today, Eurostat will release the first estimate of Eurozone Industrial Production (IP) for November. According to the Bloomberg consensus, on a MoM basis, Eurozone IP is expected to increase by 0.2%e (v +2.1% in October). Once again, regional surveys and my proxies suggest that the consensus looks very pessimistic.

1- German figures will support the headline

According to Destatis, on a seasonally adjusted basis, total industrial output (including production in manufacturing, energy and constructio) rose 0.9% MoM from October (7th straight increase). Germany is still benefiting from a global manufacturing boom.

December Global #Manufacturing PMI: 53.8 v 53.8 prior
*New Export Order: 51.1 v 51.7 prior
*Link: https://t.co/MLBfsvWbh3 pic.twitter.com/JGc14KUs1P

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) January 4, 2021

2- Most of upward surprise will come from Ireland

In the meantime, the Central Statistics Office of Ireland reported that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, total industrial production rebounded by 52.9% MoM in November (the largest increase on record). The bounce came after 3 months of contraction. In addition, Irish manufacturing firms saw a boost to business in both November and December ahead of a potential Hard Brexit.

For September-November 2020, quarter-on-quarter production increased by 4.7% compared to the previous three-month periodhttps://t.co/HUhOUp6VOc #CSOIreland #Ireland #IrishBusiness #BusinessStatistics #IndustrialProduction #Manufacturing #IndustrialTurnover #Business pic.twitter.com/0k2hhXKnX7

— Central Statistics Office Ireland (@CSOIreland) January 12, 2021