E Economics

Eurozone Industrial Production For November Will Beat Expectations

13 January, 2021
European markets


Today, Eurostat will release the first estimate of Eurozone Industrial Production (IP) for November. According to the Bloomberg consensus, on a MoM basis, Eurozone IP is expected to increase by 0.2%e (v +2.1% in October). Once again, regional surveys and my proxies suggest that the consensus looks very pessimistic.


1- German figures will support the headline

According to Destatis, on a seasonally adjusted basis, total industrial output (including production in manufacturing, energy and constructio) rose 0.9% MoM from October (7th straight increase). Germany is still benefiting from a global manufacturing boom.


2- Most of upward surprise will come from Ireland

In the meantime, the Central Statistics Office of Ireland reported that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, total industrial production rebounded by 52.9% MoM in November (the largest increase on record). The bounce came after 3 months of contraction. In addition, Irish manufacturing firms saw a boost to business in both November and December ahead of a potential Hard Brexit.