Eurozone Industrial Production For November Will Beat Expectations


Today, Eurostat will release the first estimate of Eurozone Industrial Production (IP) for November. According to the Bloomberg consensus, on a MoM basis, Eurozone IP is expected to increase by 0.2%e (v +2.1% in October). Once again, regional surveys and my proxies suggest that the consensus looks very pessimistic.


1- 🇩🇪 German figures will support the headline

According to Destatis, on a seasonally adjusted basis, total industrial output (including production in manufacturing, energy and constructio) rose 0.9% MoM from October (7th straight increase). Germany is still benefiting from a global manufacturing boom.


2- 🇮🇪 Most of upward surprise will come from Ireland

In the meantime, the Central Statistics Office of Ireland reported that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, total industrial production rebounded by 52.9% MoM in November (the largest increase on record). The bounce came after 3 months of contraction. In addition, Irish manufacturing firms saw a boost to business in both November and December ahead of a potential Hard Brexit.


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