E Economics

Eurozone Industrial Production For December Will Miss The Consensus

14 February, 2021
Eurozone IP Preview for December



On Monday, Eurostat will release the first estimate of Eurozone Industrial Production (IP) for December. According to the Bloomberg consensus, on a MoM basis, Eurozone IP is expected to decrease by 0.8%e (v +2.5% in November). Regional surveys and my proxies suggest that the consensus looks optimistic.

 

1- French and Italian IP retraced in December

According to Insee, “output decreased in the manufacturing industry for the first time since April 2020 (βˆ’1.7%, after +0.7% in November). In the whole industry, output decreased for the second consecutive month (βˆ’0.8%, after βˆ’0.7%).”

Over the same period, Istat highlighted “the seasonally adjusted industrial production index decreased by 0.2% compared with the previous month. The change of the average of the last three months with respect to the previous three months was -0.8%.

 

2- Most of downward surprise will come from Ireland

In the meantime, the Central Statistics Office of Ireland reported that industrial production declined 24.8 percent monthly in December, after a 50.7 percent rise in the previous month. As a result, Ireland contribution to the Eurozone headline should be ~-1.5%.

 

 


 

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