U.S. High Frequency Indicators Confirm Economic Recovery Has Stalled since Late June

U.S. high frequency indicators have continued to flash red since late June, suggesting that another round of fiscal stimulus is more than necessary to avoid a downward surprise in 3Q. Yesterday, Bloomberg highlighted that the Census Bureau’s weekly Household Pulse Survey showed that “The number of employed Americans declined by about 6.7 million from mid-June through mid-July, including a 4.1 million plunge from the first to the second week of July”.

 

 

Earlier this week, CNBC cited data from Homebase that showed “six states have seen the number of employees going to work at small- and medium-sized businesses decline by at least 5% from early June to mid-July”. “Areas that have seen a spike in coronavirus cases are seeing declines in business activities, although the declines are not as steep as during the first wave of cases”, the firm said in a report.

 

 

In addition, the NY Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI), an index of ten daily and weekly indicators of real economic activity, is turning negative again. The index fell to -6.86 last week (down from -6.08 prior). Finally, according to Axios, other real-time data trackers from Goldman Sachs, Jefferies and Oxford Economics have all seen similar downtrends. Among others, TSA data showed the first weekly downturn in travelers passing through checkpoints since April.

 

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