Even after today’s US Q3 GDP beat, equities are still trading on a 1.6X market cap/GDP ratio, 14% higher than Dot-com peak levels & still in the 100th percentile of its historical distribution over 70Y. Valuations this extreme generally imply more downside for equities vs. bonds. pic.twitter.com/Gxh40frJNG
— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) October 29, 2020
One of my most important Models (updated).
The Active model was a key theme of my OCT 12 report – so far has played out in ideal C-wave behavior.
But the decline seems far from over. Too many imbalances remain, and could take time to clear.
Will update this soon – stay nimble. pic.twitter.com/BHlbYRkJhd
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) October 29, 2020
The stock market is now a derivative of the options market pic.twitter.com/XGBZFv8Z5p
— Christopher Cole (@vol_christopher) October 29, 2020
Service sector lockdowns hitting restaurants hard: ex. Ireland pic.twitter.com/4kzfhDshzP
— Jeffrey Kleintop (@JeffreyKleintop) October 29, 2020
🇪🇺 *#ECB LAGARDE: DON'T KNOW YET IF ECONOMY WILL SHRINK IN 4Q – BBG
➡ In my opinion, there is no doubt that:
*Bloomberg consensus is too optimistic
*4Q GDP will contract pic.twitter.com/30BVgxyD7e
— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) October 29, 2020