Several Charts Suggest That U.S. Stock Bulls Should Be More Cautious In August

I/ Positioning (Contrarian Signal)

*Retailers look extremly active and bullish

 

*Positions seem to be concentrated in Tech stocks

 

*Shorts have capitulated

 

II/ Seasonal Patterns

*Usually, seasonal pattern isn’t supportive in August

 

*It’s the same case for U.S. presidential cycle…

 

*… Especially if the incumbent party loses the Elections

 

III/ Liquidity (Volatility Multiplier)

*Liquidity remains particularly low

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