Eurozone Industrial Production For December Will Miss The Consensus

On Monday, Eurostat will release the first estimate of Eurozone Industrial Production (IP) for December. According to the Bloomberg consensus, on a MoM basis, Eurozone IP is expected to decrease by 0.8%e (v +2.5% in November). Regional surveys and my proxies suggest that the consensus looks optimistic.


1- French and Italian IP retraced in December

🇫🇷 According to Insee, “output decreased in the manufacturing industry for the first time since April 2020 (−1.7%, after +0.7% in November). In the whole industry, output decreased for the second consecutive month (−0.8%, after −0.7%).”

🇮🇹 Over the same period, Istat highlighted “the seasonally adjusted industrial production index decreased by 0.2% compared with the previous month. The change of the average of the last three months with respect to the previous three months was -0.8%.


2- Most of downward surprise will come from Ireland

🇮🇪 In the meantime, the Central Statistics Office of Ireland reported that industrial production declined 24.8 percent monthly in December, after a 50.7 percent rise in the previous month. As a result, Ireland contribution to the Eurozone headline should be ~-1.5%.




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