Daily Archives: November 16, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, all European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 50 per 100,000 inhabitants.

 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Nov. 15th)

 

Fresh #Covid_19 vaccine reports are on the horizon, with drugmakers including Pfizer Inc. expected to obtain more trial data as early as this week – Bloomberg

*Moderna is expected to release crucial data in coming days – CNBChttps://t.co/Am1Ektse3v

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2020

 

#Eurozone: Latest Restrictions Linked To #Covid_19 (An Update)https://t.co/yMbqqvdOOn

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

 

1/21. Nov 16 to Nov 22 – #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries with risk maps
Data: @ECDC_EU or https://t.co/lsAJmfF616 or https://t.co/YgpOxMJcyy

Dashboard: https://t.co/oQTM2049s9

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience pic.twitter.com/7QYs8raXNi

— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) November 15, 2020

 

Germany (data)

Germany reports 10,824 new coronavirus cases in latest update today https://t.co/JbPpcNhhlu

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) November 16, 2020

Merkel, German states consider tougher #COVID-measures: document – Reutershttps://t.co/EPzfYPxFIx

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2020

 

Spain (data)

2/4) ÉVOLUTION DE #COVID19 À #BARCELONE, publiée aujourd'hui 15/11 à 08h33 correspondant hier (3 derniers jours provisoires) des 14 derniers jours. Oubreak Risk, CFR, R-eff et décès, descente. Hospitalisation et CFR à 30 jours légère augmentation (USI lire 4/4). Source: @salutcat pic.twitter.com/qQ63s2E7PR

— Ramon Fornos (@ramonfornose) November 15, 2020

4/4) #USI : À partir du 6/11, les données sur les admissions en USI sont les informations des centres du Système de Santé Intégral Public avec centres privés. Données seulement du global de la Catalogne : descente à 580 cas actif. R-eff Catalogne : 0.80. Source : @salutcat pic.twitter.com/hNMqtNtzIT

— Ramon Fornos (@ramonfornose) November 15, 2020

Spain's general medical council calls for Covid health chief to be fired https://t.co/8Ff9OJwhu0

— The Guardian (@guardian) November 15, 2020

 

France (data)

#COVIDー19 détectés

Source (15/11 – date de réception des tests)
⬇️27228 cas (-29,50% vs j-7)
⬇️Moyenne à 27786 (-44,02% vs j-7)

Source (12/11 – date de prélèvement)
34313 cas (-25,56% vs j-7)
Moyenne à 26993 (-39,77% vs j-7) pic.twitter.com/fKkdMVXnTY

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) November 15, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données de la S46 (cette semaine) pic.twitter.com/FdKJsTXuXk

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) November 15, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (12/11). Seules les données des 09-10-11-12/11 sont disponibles pour la S46 (cette semaine).

Cartes de chaleur d'incidence et de positivité disponibles pour chaque département ici : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU pic.twitter.com/21F8zKYgnZ

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) November 15, 2020

[THREAD]#MétéoCovidFrance du 15 novembre

France Métropolitaine :
1562 entrées ⬇️ J-7 (1805)
Moyenne 2469,43 ⬇️ J-1 (2504,14)

DOM :
12 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (9)
Moyenne 18,29 ⬆️ J-1 (17,86)

2ème graph sur les 120 derniers jours

La suite ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/eWlKeanitg

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) November 15, 2020

Mise à jour région par région du nombre total de personne hospitalisé et en Réanimation en France Métropolitaine + DOM.

32648 Hospitalisations
[+582 ]
13 en hausse
3 stable
2 en baisse

4855 Réanimations
[+25 ]
10 en hausse
2 stable
5 en baisse pic.twitter.com/ij8s5EJTXQ

— Fabien_L (@Fabien_L) November 15, 2020

 

Italy (data)

Italy reports 33,979 new coronavirus cases in 24-hours, 546 deaths https://t.co/Oirxd3tnf3 pic.twitter.com/skp6GCVWW2

— Reuters (@Reuters) November 15, 2020

In Italia 33.979 nuovi casi e 546 morti in un giorno Il bollettino https://t.co/xzROgjzQuW

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) November 15, 2020

L’andamento dell’epidemia: la mappa, i dati e le tendenze https://t.co/c2cU09HZW4 pic.twitter.com/wPpFJLstgu

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) November 15, 2020


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Speaking of money printing.….

Capex estimates for the S&P 500 only improved 2.5% from their lows.

Still down 16% YoY.

If the pandemic keeps deteriorating….. one would wonder….

How much more monetary & fiscal stimulus to cover this hole? pic.twitter.com/l1ru6xTghw

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) November 16, 2020

S&P looks a tad overvalued
pic.twitter.com/KMgPaoDHEX

— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) November 15, 2020

Rising protests of #COVID19 restrictions in Europe may be an indicator for the U.S. in the months ahead. The US has had fewer restrictions compared to Europe so far this fall, but new cases are similarly rising and restrictions are looking more likely. h/t https://t.co/ccX3iggaLL pic.twitter.com/nxBqX53RLX

— Jeffrey Kleintop (@JeffreyKleintop) November 16, 2020

This type of signal typically results in either a period of consolidation (e.g. like June 2009) or major pullback (incl. Jan 2018 & July 1987/warming up for Oct '87). pic.twitter.com/KuCBZ31KOb

— chris watling (@LongviewEcon) November 16, 2020

'A recovery in global oil demand over the next two years could trigger a turnaround in energy stocks.' https://t.co/0cjWrBGbta via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/kER5MMRhqp

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 16, 2020

News

Fresh #Covid_19 vaccine reports are on the horizon, with drugmakers including Pfizer Inc. expected to obtain more trial data as early as this week – Bloomberg

*Moderna is expected to release crucial data in coming days – CNBChttps://t.co/Am1Ektse3v

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2020

Heads of Northeast #Ohio hospitals take out full page ad in Sunday Plain Dealer, urging Ohioans to remain vigilant as #coronavirus cases rise ⬇https://t.co/19Trr6EXRf

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 15, 2020

Adm. Brett Giroir, the assistant secretary of health and human services, acknowledged on the ABC program “This Week,” that “limiting bars and restaurants” would be crucial to limiting the virus’s spread.https://t.co/v38NxFuvc4

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 15, 2020

Think of your Thanksgiving dinner like Russian roulette. Lots of people (higher chance of an infected person being present), no masks, insufficient ventilation in most homes, long exposure time = HIGH RISK! Better to wait, so that everyone can enjoy many more Thanksgivings. https://t.co/57tAN6EYb2

— Linsey Marr (@linseymarr) November 15, 2020

 

Restrictions (NYT Compilation)

BREAKING: Gov. Whitmer announces measures to stop the spread of COVID-19.

This is effective Wednesday for three weeks. pic.twitter.com/DfiNL31uU9

— Megan Smedley (@Megan_WNDU) November 15, 2020

#Michigan to Impose a Three-Week Partial Lockdown to Fight Virus – Bloomberghttps://t.co/LXpBY0omdt

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2020

#Washington, Ground Zero for U.S. Outbreak, Reinstates Curbs – Bloomberghttps://t.co/xDQYFG9esZ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2020

 

Regional Data

The test positivity rate in the focus areas under NY's Micro-Cluster strategy is 4.05%.

The statewide positivity rate excluding these focus areas is 2.45%.

We continue to take strong action to respond to outbreaks and to stop the spread.

Mask Up.

— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) November 15, 2020

Today’s indicators are similar to yesterday:

• 117 patients admitted to the hospital
• 937 new cases
• The test positivity 7-day average is 2.57%

Thankfully, schools will remain open on Monday, but we have to keep fighting back with everything we’ve got.

— Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) November 15, 2020

NEW JERSEY #COVID19 UPDATE:
➡️4,540 new positive cases
➡️279,274 cumulative total cases
➡️18 new confirmed deaths
➡️14,765 total deaths

These numbers are ALARMING and continue to rise. Take this seriously. Wear a mask. Social distance. Stay safe.
https://t.co/JW1q8awGh7 pic.twitter.com/gdjREnqJyn

— Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) November 15, 2020

Today's #COVID19 update:

– 1,180 new cases, totaling 63,171 cases statewide

– 10 additional deaths, totaling 1,208 deaths statewide

– 480 current COVID-19 hospitalizations across the state

Stay home. Slow the spread. Save lives.

More info here: https://t.co/TuuEhkXpU7 pic.twitter.com/sH1RMvaRnx

— Michelle Lujan Grisham (@GovMLG) November 14, 2020

 

National data (CDC, Covid Tracking Project, Johns Hopkins University, New York Times)

November 15 COVID-19 Test Results https://t.co/PXgzcvfGrP pic.twitter.com/8E1K0VnO6O

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 16, 2020

Our daily update is published. States reported 1.5M tests, 139K cases, and 583 deaths. 69k people are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 in the US. Texas has not reported its data yet today. pic.twitter.com/KD0j5Qe8bJ

— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) November 16, 2020

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases

 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Americas

*MODERNA: PHASE 3 STUDY #VACCINE EFFICACY OF 94.5% – BBG

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2020

United States #Covid_19: Daily Summary (November 16th)
➡ Regional/national data
➡ Latest Restrictions: #Michigan, #Washingtonhttps://t.co/adPe3nYKaR

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2020

US sees 1 Million new coronavirus cases in one week https://t.co/Y24hmao8Iv pic.twitter.com/h6ZZlgZtnh

— The Hill (@thehill) November 16, 2020

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will make remarks on the U.S. economy on Monday https://t.co/YPPQTzQ7SZ

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 15, 2020

Scoop: #Trump plans last-minute #China crackdown – Axioshttps://t.co/AnrtSMpVlC

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2020

Qualcomm receives U.S. permission to sell 4G chips to Huawei in exception to ban https://t.co/9EvZaRb6fq pic.twitter.com/skBUjIPfJx

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) November 14, 2020

Canada’s online food-retail boom is set to endure (via @Marcy_Nicholson) https://t.co/T9k03IkUI3

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 15, 2020

 

Asia

Australia's stock exchange to not reopen on Monday after data issue https://t.co/BJkz5Kl3fx pic.twitter.com/qP5EbAP7zc

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) November 16, 2020

Coronavirus latest: Australia back on alert as state reports jump.

Read the latest news on COVID-19 at Nikkei Asia's free blog:https://t.co/dweQ8oPhB8

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) November 16, 2020

Japanese Industrial Production (M/M) Sep F: 3.9% (prev 4.0%)
– Industrial Production (Y/Y) Sep F: -9.0% (prev -9.0%)
– Capacity Utilisation (M/M) Sep: 6.4% (prev 2.9%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 16, 2020

Japanese GDP SA (Q/Q) Q3 P: 5.0% (exp 4.4%; R prev -8.2%)
– GDP Annualised SA (Q/Q) Q3 P: 21.4% (exp 18.9%; R prev -28.8%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 15, 2020

Japanese ForMin Motegi: Will Likely Take Two Years For Japan Economy To Fully Recover From Coronavirus Impact – RTRS

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 16, 2020

#China | Latest data confirmed that authories kept supporting economic activity through public spending:

*October Public FAI YTD YoY: +4.9% (highest since Dec. 2019) v +4.0% prior
*October Private FAI YTD YoY: -0.7% v -1.5% prior pic.twitter.com/7KyUMr7vuf

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2020

China’s marginal RCEP gains will not offset trade war impact on economy, studies show, reports @fbermingham #China #china #RCEP https://t.co/n2PFGTABNZ pic.twitter.com/D5N1Nm2uue

— SCMP Economy (@scmpeconomy) November 16, 2020

Which countries are in Asia's new #RCEP trading bloc?
Read more: https://t.co/vuXdxBbgq4 pic.twitter.com/NdhM9SBlCR

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) November 16, 2020

Japan' Suga and IOC's Bach agree Olympics to take place in summer https://t.co/QzsBCY6YN5

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) November 16, 2020

 

Europe

The winners and losers in 8 months that ravaged the UK economy
BOE's worst policy leak of the 21st century tests its regime of secrecy
China's recovery strengthens as consumer spending picks up
Here's a rundown of your top economic news today https://t.co/OtVZgkLsGU

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 16, 2020

Fresh #Covid_19 vaccine reports are on the horizon, with drugmakers including Pfizer Inc. expected to obtain more trial data as early as this week – Bloomberg

*Moderna is expected to release crucial data in coming days – CNBChttps://t.co/Am1Ektse3v

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2020

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (November 16th)

*Focus on #Germany, #Spain, #France and #Italy

HT @FLAHAULT, @ForexLive, @ramonfornose, @guardian, @gforestier, @starjoin, @Fabien_L, @Reuters, @Corriere
https://t.co/dex2rJrXtX

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2020

EU Regulators Seek Solution To Post-Brexit Derivatives Rule Clash – FT https://t.co/Ze8OJ3Ohu7

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 16, 2020

Asking prices for U.K. homes slipped this month as owners sought to get sales agreed in time to benefit from a temporary tax cut https://t.co/Sr7xwjpZyC

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 16, 2020

What a vaccine does… pic.twitter.com/Ux39K4gnCW

— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) November 10, 2020

85% of stocks > 200-day moving averages, most since Aug 2013.
One consequence of rotation to Value & small-caps is improvement in broad breadth gauges. Watching Growth & large-caps. If they break down (absolute, not relative), then so does the bullish breadth case. @NDR_Research pic.twitter.com/4MFGVad5dP

— Ed Clissold (@edclissold) November 11, 2020

Big money chasing Stock ETFs this week…$SPY took in +$10B, pushing 1M inflows over +$15B, very stretched short-term.

Context matters though – sellers dominated all year… and SPY still lost -$20B YTD even *with* this buying.

Glass half full? Time will tell… HAGW! pic.twitter.com/mIMUL34g0Z

— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) November 13, 2020

There have been 17 weeks with bigly jumps in optimism among mom-and-pop survey-takers + ETF traders.

If you used this kind of thing to short stocks and hold for a few months, you would have won about 18% of the time.

But hey, you nailed the peak in 2007! pic.twitter.com/FUDBqaIDu0

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) November 13, 2020

while they're piling in insiders are piling out pic.twitter.com/agpKn15u6V

— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) November 14, 2020

Goldman's 4,600 SPX price target for 2022 is based on a 22.1x PE fwd multiple pic.twitter.com/dqMZRNQ7Om

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 11, 2020

People who read #Investopedia are really #bullish on stocks expecting a 10% return or higher over the next year. #Contrarian pic.twitter.com/ni4H58Km5s

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) November 12, 2020

The 2-Positioning & #Risk gauges we supply to https://t.co/GuMbelEaff subscribers each week are also starting to suggest caution. https://t.co/2aPeq1ZUJi pic.twitter.com/RaT7FQo2Fl

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) November 14, 2020

FYI:

Russell 3000 P/E just hit all-time highs.

31x earnings.

Prior peaks:

1) Tech bubble, near record prices with low earnings.
2) Post GFC, low prices with depressed earnings.

Today:

Record prices with depressed earnings. pic.twitter.com/2PwkO8f9XK

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) November 10, 2020

Valuation dispersion beyond 01 wides. W/ leads accelerating throughout 2021 gap likely fades. Anything with a ticker vs tech. pic.twitter.com/eFCDSecsZI

— Teddy Vallee (@TeddyVallee) November 15, 2020

Summary Key Macro Events

The US Senate is preparing to vote as early as this week to confirm Judy Shelton, Mr Trump’s nominee to the Federal Reserve board and a fierce critic of the US central bank – FT (from 16)

Brexit talks will resume in Brussels with Mr Johnson still playing it tough as Thursday’s EU leaders videoconference summit — seen by many as the final deadline for sealing a draft Brexit trade deal — nears – FT (16)

President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will speak Monday on their plans for a post-Covid economic recovery and longer-term growth (16)

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison will be the first head of state to meet his Japanese counterpart Yoshihide Suga when he arrives in Tokyo on Tuesday – Nikkei (17)

Russia will host the 12th annual BRICS leaders’ summit to discuss the impact of COVID on member states – Nikkei (17)

Retail Sales for October (17)

Industrial Production for October (17)

Housing Starts and Building Permits for October (18)

The EU leaders summit will also discuss the next steps in response to coronavirus, while the European Commission is due to publish its recommendations to EU states on plans to use Covid-19 rapid antigen tests and on quarantine rules this week – FT (19)

Existing Home Sales for October (19)

 


 

Earnings

#earnings scheduled for the week https://t.co/lObOE0dgsr $NIO $NVDA $JD $WMT $HD $SE $TGT $LOW $TSN $PANW $BIDU $KSS $SDC $CODX $BJ $M $SOHU $VBLT $NEPT $TJX $CSIQ $BILI $FL $MARK $MGIC $WDAY $IQ $CSPR $NTES $SOGO $ACM $CLSN $AVYA $VERO $SR $NTWK $AZUL $INTU $BOXL $ARMK $LODE pic.twitter.com/Yb2EihkJMZ

— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) November 14, 2020

 


 

Previews

U.S. Likely to Show Snapshot of Resilience in Retail: Week Ahead – Bloomberghttps://t.co/yMxZEwzP2w

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 15, 2020

Your Week in Asia
— IOC chief in Tokyo
— APEC Summit
— US-Taiwan ministershttps://t.co/nuDmqDETkF

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) November 15, 2020

Boris Johnson energy speech, Turkey sets rates, US retail sales https://t.co/TCyO1l1Bkr

— FT Economics (@fteconomics) November 15, 2020

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will make remarks on the U.S. economy on Monday https://t.co/YPPQTzQ7SZ

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 15, 2020

 


 

Focus on Economic Calendar

Schedule for Week of November 15, 2020 https://t.co/HIayUf1ocu

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 14, 2020

 


 

Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Previous Week – w46

⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w46 ⚠

HT @dlacalle_IA, @edclissold, @MacroCharts, @sentimentrader, @NorthmanTrader, @zerohedge, @LanceRoberts, @TaviCosta, @TeddyValleehttps://t.co/B9wdFKvmdX

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2020

 

What happened in the World Economy last Week – in charts – w46 (Bloomberg)

The week in the global economy, through charts https://t.co/P6gXgSf148

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 13, 2020