Daily Archives: November 12, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, all European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 50 per 100,000 inhabitants.

 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Nov. 11th)

 

Moderna Poised to Take #Vaccine Spotlight With Data Due – Bloomberghttps://t.co/SBkRPJW8Xq

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

 

Un résumé de la gestion de la crise Covid par les autorités suédoises, avec cette sempiternelle promesse que ça ira mieux demain grâce à une immunité magique qui ne s'est jamais matérialisée. https://t.co/lvTCGN1Hce

— Vincent Glad (@vincentglad) November 11, 2020

 

#Greece tightens night time curfew as #COVID_19 infections surge – Reutershttps://t.co/HhBAnEKdYU

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 11, 2020

 

#Eurozone: Latest Restrictions Linked To #Covid_19 (An Update)https://t.co/yMbqqvdOOn

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

 

1/21. Nov 12 to Nov 18 – #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries with new risk maps.
Data: @ECDC_EU or https://t.co/lsAJmfF616 or https://t.co/YgpOxMJcyy

Dashboard: https://t.co/xJNfRM6DJZ

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience pic.twitter.com/d4cmLIL2J6

— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) November 11, 2020

 

Germany (data)

Germany reports 21,866 new coronavirus cases in latest update today https://t.co/5aouQcTRGF

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) November 12, 2020

 

Spain (data)

➡️Gráficas de casos notificados por día y acumulados en 14 y 7 días.

Hoy hay 19.096 casos nuevos. El miércoles pasado fueron 25.042 Hace 2 miércoles fueron 19.765. Hace 3 miércoles 16.973. pic.twitter.com/bvZbTl8yNM

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) November 11, 2020

DATOS COVID-19 ESPAÑA

CASOS NUEVOS
✔️ +19.096 total
✔️ 8.943 día previo

349 FALLECIDOS

21.051 HOSP. [+108 ]
3.093 UCI [+29 ]

⚠️ —> + + +

HILO pic.twitter.com/LEpGqHDNd3

— Miguel Ángel Reinoso (@mianrey) November 11, 2020

Se reduce el número de personas ingresadas por coronavirus en España, pero aumenta en UCI:

18.461 HOSPITALIZADOS
[-170 ]
6 crecen
1 sin cambios
12 decrecen

2.967 UCI
[+32 ]
8 crecen
3 sin cambios
8 decrecen pic.twitter.com/sOa9AvJsuN

— Miguel Ángel Reinoso (@mianrey) November 11, 2020

3/4) ÉVOLUTION DE #COVID19 EN #CATALOGNE, publiée aujourd'hui, 11/11 à 07h53 (3 derniers jours provisoires). Graphiques des cas depuis le 26/07, avec les différentes phases et des cas par âges à 7, 14 et 30 jours. « 12 JOURS D'AMÉLIORATION DURABLE ». Source : @salutcat pic.twitter.com/irttf1IZjk

— Ramon Fornos (@ramonfornose) November 11, 2020

 

France (data)

Nouveaux cas #COVIDー19 détectés

Source SPF (date de réception des tests)
⬇️35879 cas (-11,54% vs j-7)
⬇️Moyenne à 46031 (8,54% vs j-7)

Source SIDEP (date de prélèvement)
07/11
⬇️16369 cas (-14,37% vs j-7)
⬇️Moyenne à 41182 (-14,37% vs j-7)

08/11
⬇️3902 cas
⬇️Moyenne à 40775 pic.twitter.com/7hTqmpnOtj

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) November 11, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du 11/11 (08/11 pour les tests) : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU

⚠️un jour férié peut avoir un impact sur les remontés hospitalières (comme les week-ends) @EricBillyFR @Le___Doc #COVID19france pic.twitter.com/oAaUlVfsI0

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) November 11, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (08/11). Première estimation de la S45 complète (semaine dernière).

Cartes de chaleur d'incidence et de positivité disponibles pour chaque département ici : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU pic.twitter.com/Tvd01jt6Vk

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) November 11, 2020

Regardons les incidences par âge (pour rappel, l'incidence est le nombre de cas rapportés à la population de cette tranche d'âge).

➡️L'incidence des 90+ a bcp augmenté.
➡️Les 0-9 ans restent à une incidence très faible pic.twitter.com/NrnNTLRhy3

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) November 12, 2020

[THREAD]#MétéoCovidFrance du 11 novembre

Hospitalisations

France Métropolitaine :
2569 entrées ⬇️ J-7 (3659)
Moyenne 2668,29 ⬇️ J-1 (2824,00)

DOM :
19 entrées ⬇️ J-7 (22)
Moyenne 21,29 ⬇️ J-1 (21,71)

Graph sur toute la période et les 120 derniers jours

La suite ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/XsWnzqa0At

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) November 11, 2020

#FRANCE COVID-19 ICU OCCUPATION RATE 94.7% VS 93.6% DAY EARLIER – BBG

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 11, 2020

Le pic d'avril est quasiment atteint à l'hôpital, mais il y a un tiers de patients en moins en réanimation. "On a beaucoup appris de la première vague, la prise en charge est cette fois très différente, plus précoce." #Covid19
https://t.co/sB3URonV5q@le_Parisien pic.twitter.com/J1grwuJT61

— Nicolas Berrod (@nicolasberrod) November 11, 2020

Mise à jour région par région du nombre total de personne hospitalisé et en Réanimation en France Métropolitaine + DOM.

31918 Hospitalisations
[+379 ]
14 en hausse
1 stable
3 en baisse

4789 Réanimations
[+53 ]
10 en hausse
3 stable
4 en baisse pic.twitter.com/FAsyIuOPGi

— Fabien_L (@Fabien_L) November 11, 2020

Pour rappel :
➡️Les chiffres hospitaliers d'aujourd'hui sont les chiffres d'un jour férié donc prudence.
➡️Les données Sidep sont ceux du dimanche 8 novembre (en baisse de 40% avant régule quand même).
➡️Le SPF a un rattrapage non négligeable d'un labo.https://t.co/PCOLKcyYVv

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) November 11, 2020

#PrevisionCovid
Nouveaux cas 70 à 89 ans
Entrées à l'hôpital (décalé 10 jours)
Décès (décalé 17j – échelle gauche)

On voit bien l'effet du jour férié ! pic.twitter.com/CWlLus1bDY

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) November 11, 2020

EN DIRECT – Covid-19: Jean Castex fera un point sur le confinement ce jeudi à 18hhttps://t.co/fstV1kQBiz pic.twitter.com/TvjXWW3lqI

— BFMTV (@BFMTV) November 12, 2020

EN DIRECT – Covid-19: que va annoncer Castex ce soir? A priori, ni assouplissement ni durcissement:

➡️ Un point sur le télétravail, les transports et le soutien aux commerces fermés

➡️ Reste à trancher la question de l'éventuelle fermeture des lycéeshttps://t.co/fstV1kQBiz pic.twitter.com/ddHAHpKwlG

— BFMTV (@BFMTV) November 12, 2020

Quel est l'impact des vacances et des mesures sur l'épidémie de #Covid19 ?

Ça fait un moment que je m'intéresse au sujet et suite au très bon graph d'@eorphelin montrant une "situation" chez les enfants par rapport aux adultes. J'ai décidé de me pencher plus en détail
La suite pic.twitter.com/Ly1PqOnwGz

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) November 12, 2020

Impact des deux confinements sur les déplacements des français à partir des données Google Mobility pic.twitter.com/yOay2w7UOZ

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) November 11, 2020

 

Italy (data)

In Italia superato il milione di casi dall’inizio dell’epidemia. In 24 ore 623 mort… https://t.co/rQZ4uoEHbP pic.twitter.com/LXvpkwPFcg

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) November 11, 2020

L’andamento dell’epidemia: la mappa, i dati e le tendenze https://t.co/c2cU09HZW4 pic.twitter.com/ZfGLjyuJ3O

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) November 11, 2020

#Coronavirus, il numero dei ricoverati è salito oltre il picco di aprile. 23.248 i soggetti attualmente positivi con 623 nuove vittime. Tutte le statistiche sull'emergenza sanitaria si possono consultare sulla mappa interattiva di #Lab24 ➡️https://t.co/9WGpFk9ges pic.twitter.com/FC3Zo6QXl0

— IlSole24ORE (@sole24ore) November 11, 2020

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

News

Moderna Poised to Take #Vaccine Spotlight With Data Due – Bloomberghttps://t.co/SBkRPJW8Xq

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

The U.S. Economy Will Crash Before Year’s End Amid New #Coronavirus Wavehttps://t.co/pfsD4SC06n

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 11, 2020

Deploying additional resources to El Paso and Lubbock to help combat #COVID19 and bring hospitalization rates down in these communities.

More information ⬇️https://t.co/8bXnyiwl85

— Gov. Greg Abbott (@GovAbbott) November 11, 2020

 

Restrictions

NYS is taking action to stop the spread in response to rising COVID numbers.

Any establishment with a state liquor license, including bars and restaurants, must close at 10pm.

Gyms must also close at 10pm.

These new statewide rules will take effect Friday, 10pm.

— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) November 11, 2020

We are reissuing Ohio’s mask order w/ three new provisions. ⬇ The first violation of this order will bring about a written warning and a second violation will bring about closure of the store for up to 24 hours. pic.twitter.com/mZccGPevXq

— Governor Mike DeWine (@GovMikeDeWine) November 11, 2020

Ohio ramps up mask rules and may close bars, restaurants. https://t.co/RNoCZ908aH pic.twitter.com/jr9p3QOiUH

— WPXI (@WPXI) November 12, 2020

 

Regional Data

The test positivity rate in the focus areas under NY's Micro-Cluster strategy is 4.96%.

The statewide positivity rate excluding these focus areas is 2.58%.

We continue to take strong action to respond to outbreaks and to stop the spread.

Mask Up.

— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) November 11, 2020

NEW JERSEY #COVID19 UPDATE:

➡️3,078 new positive cases
➡️263,495 cumulative total cases

➡️15 new confirmed deaths
➡️14,676 total deaths

The numbers are rising. Take this seriously, folks. Wear a mask. Social distance. Stay safe.
https://t.co/JW1q8awGh7 pic.twitter.com/V3xHbEzKMA

— Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) November 11, 2020

Texas is the first state in the nation to report a million COVID-19 cases. Statewide there were nearly 11,000 new cases yesterday — the most in a single day.​ https://t.co/j3yBTKNFHg

— FOX 4 NEWS (@FOX4) November 11, 2020

Kansas sets COVID-19 records; counties struggle with tracing https://t.co/ZBOdkt4ZLI pic.twitter.com/HA9Nyvh2gI

— News 4 San Antonio (@News4SA) November 11, 2020

The state health department reports 1,248 hospitalizations Wednesday to surpass the previous record of 1,055 set last Thursday. https://t.co/WYndnG3tUA

— 5NEWS (@5NEWS) November 11, 2020

 

National data (CDC, Covid Tracking Project, Johns Hopkins University, New York Times)

This #Covid Surge Is America’s Longest—and It’s Getting Longer – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/ZiI6LnPqXu pic.twitter.com/P3xC5688PP

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

November 11 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Record Hospitalizations https://t.co/znXBNauCRO Records falling every day. Be careful!!! pic.twitter.com/06xwXI8aV6

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 12, 2020

On a per capita basis, more people are now dying across the Midwest than even at the peak of the summer surge in the South. pic.twitter.com/nZ7CIIzG22

— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) November 12, 2020

Hospitalizations are now rising very quickly. The last three days standout, but across all of November, we're averaging 1,636 more current hospitalizations each day. pic.twitter.com/caL1lZIYPi

— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) November 12, 2020

 


 

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases

 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

eurozone industrial production

On Thursday, Eurostat will release the first estimate of Eurozone Industrial Prdoction (IP) for September. According to the Bloomberg consensus, on a MoM basis, Eurozone IP is expected to increase by 0.6%e (v +0.7% in August). Regional surveys and my proxies suggest that the consensus remains very optimistic.

 

1/ Most of regional surveys were already released and showed that IP contracted sharply in several countries:

Italy IP MoM: -5.6% v +7.4% prior

Ireland IP MoM: -4.9% v -15.5% prior

Portugal IP MoM: -3.8% v +10.4% prior

 

2/ It seems that countries which outperformed recently experienced a downward normalization in September, amplified by the first signs of virus resurgence. Using estimates from other countries, a drop can’t be excluded.

 

Americas

Unwinding the COVID-19 trade could get messy. Pfizer’s vaccine announcement sent stocks up overall but battered some lockdown-friendly firms. This reversal may scramble traditional equity classifications, says @Three_Guineas https://t.co/h9QPaWdwHE https://t.co/h9QPaWdwHE

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) November 12, 2020

United States #Covid_19: Daily Summary (November 12th)
*Focus on regional/national data and restrictions ⚠https://t.co/hInUTvKONe

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

The U.S. Economy Will Crash Before Year’s End Amid New #Coronavirus Wavehttps://t.co/pfsD4SC06n

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 11, 2020

My contribution to @MKTWgoldstein | #Coronavirus worries offset #vaccine optimism to pressure European stocks and Dow futures – @MarketWatch https://t.co/HfEw5XapWi

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

NEW: Senate majority battle snags Biden Cabinet hopefuls https://t.co/UPqsv9hoj5 pic.twitter.com/wtHbpfNcfr

— The Hill (@thehill) November 12, 2020

Biden may take months to decide what to throw out from Trump’s trade playbook. But he may keep a lot (via @sdonnan & @jendeben) https://t.co/KQb8y1wk6s

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 12, 2020

 

Asia

#Japan to Step Up #Coronavirus Counter-Cluster Measures – NHK
*Japan confirmed at least 1,546 new cases nationwide Wednesday, topping 1,500 for the first time since Aug. 8.https://t.co/ZrFxNkFbbC

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

#RCEP nations to sign Asian trade megadeal Sunday, with clause for India – Nikkeihttps://t.co/qfVeNgIcT1

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

Japan eyes US-style law to sanction Uighur human rights abuses – Nikkeihttps://t.co/3CBBnz3coE

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

China says the actions and words of Australia’s government and some people in the country are to blame for the worsening relations between the two nations https://t.co/h1gZb3dWCf

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 12, 2020

#China aims to have 50% of all new auto vehicles with partial self-driving #tech by 2025 – Sina https://t.co/gh9kF73YXf

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

India’s government expanded its rescue package to support an economy clobbered by the coronavirus pandemic https://t.co/3WdytRG98P

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 12, 2020

 

Europe

#Europe #Covid_19 – Nov. 12th

*Focus on #Germany, #Spain, #France and #Italy

HT @vincentglad, @FLAHAULT, @ForexLive, @ngbpadel2, @mianrey, @ramonfornose, @gforestier, @starjoin, @Fabien_L, @nicolasberrod, @BFMTV, @Corriere, @sole24orehttps://t.co/5Q1JU8Nxvp

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

Merkel Warns of Tough Winter Ahead Even With Glimpse of Vaccine – Bloomberghttps://t.co/gJ36oab8EI

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

#ECB Lagarde Says Next Stimulus to Rely on Emergency QE, Loans – Bloomberghttps://t.co/3EJ574rdMe

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

#EUROZONE SEPT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.4% V +0.6%E; Y/Y: -6.8% V -5.8%Ehttps://t.co/2qn5Jpv31k

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2020

Britain will attempt to reassure nervous business leaders that it appreciates the need for clarity on rules outside of the European Union by setting up a task force to discuss challenges 50 days before the transition period ends https://t.co/2R81Vt0aK5

— Reuters UK (@ReutersUK) November 12, 2020

Exclusive: A group of 165 companies and industry bodies have called on EU antitrust enforcers to take a tougher line against Google, saying the U.S. tech giant unfairly favors its own services on its web searches https://t.co/YP6UL0NAau by @FooYunChee

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) November 12, 2020

Big change in Stock market sentiment this week…

AAII BULLS spiking to 56% – top decile in history (33 years), *Top 6* since MAR 2009 and largest weekly increase in 10 years.

BULL-BEAR Spread at 31% – top 5% in history.

Both series are now at the highest since JAN 2018. pic.twitter.com/G1TDvqOa1S

— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) November 12, 2020

Stampede!

Bulls are out in force.

This week’s AAII survey saw a sharp rise in the Bull-Bear spread, up to 31% – the highest lvl since Jan ‘18.

The change in sentiment over 3M has been dramatic, up 46% – only 8X since 2014 >=30%.

Sentiment & positioning is very one-sided. pic.twitter.com/dWb35QGiuk

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) November 12, 2020

People who read #Investopedia are really #bullish on stocks expecting a 10% return or higher over the next year. #Contrarian pic.twitter.com/ni4H58Km5s

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) November 12, 2020

Notre carte animée permettant de visualiser l'évolution de la tension en réanimation depuis le début de la première vague jusqu'à la deuxième #Covid_19 https://t.co/EnE0mHoItc – via @humeursdevictor @le_Parisien pic.twitter.com/fWG11I8MzM

— Nicolas Berrod (@nicolasberrod) November 11, 2020

Latest Google update shows large declines in mobility in Germany, Italy and other major economies, pulling the Eurozone weighted average to early-May levels. The timing and level of the bottoming out will provide some insight into the scale of the double dip in Q4.@C_Barraud https://t.co/I3YzpBmhgx pic.twitter.com/s8rMuo1kCi

— Daniel Kral (@DanielKral1) November 12, 2020