Daily Archives: November 5, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, all European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 50 per 100,000 inhabitants.

 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Nov. 4th)

 

PM to announce second lockdown for #Greece, sources say – ekathimerinihttps://t.co/ko9am9gIPn

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

 

1/21. Nov 05 to Nov 11 – #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries with new risk maps.
Data: @ECDC_EU or https://t.co/lsAJmfF616 or https://t.co/YgpOxMJcyy

Dashboard: https://t.co/xJNfRM6DJZ

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience pic.twitter.com/ACxQz2T2J4

— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) November 4, 2020

 

Germany (data)

Germany posts record daily coronavirus infections of nearly 20,000 cases https://t.co/vf8TAvZnw8

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) November 5, 2020

 

Spain (data)

➡️Gráficas de casos notificados por día y acumulados en 14 y 7 días.

Hoy hay 25.042 casos nuevos. El miércoles pasado fueron 19.765 Hace 2 miércoles fueron 16.973. Hace 3 miércoles 11.970. pic.twitter.com/baFKrZDC56

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) November 4, 2020

DATOS COVID-19 ESPAÑA

CASOS NUEVOS
✔️ +25.042 total
✔️ 8.924 día previo

1.623 FALLECIDOS

20.325 HOSP. [+382 ]
2.786 UCI [+32 ]

⚠️ —> + + +

HILO pic.twitter.com/HnetuU929w

— Miguel Ángel Reinoso (@mianrey) November 4, 2020

Sigue aumentando el número de personas ingresadas por coronavirus en España:

17.859 HOSPITALIZADOS
[+330 ]
14 crecen
5 decrecen

2.601 UCI
[+7 ]
8 crecen
1 sin cambios
10 decrecen pic.twitter.com/utQqDS2Tud

— Miguel Ángel Reinoso (@mianrey) November 4, 2020

2/3) ÉVOLUTION DE #COVID19 À #BARCELONE, publiée aujourd'hui, 04/11 à 08h08, correspondant hier (3 derniers jours provisoires). Données des 10 derniers jours. Oubreak Risk, CFR, R-eff, occupations des hôpitaux et décès, descente. USI, légère augmentation. Source : @salutcat pic.twitter.com/eHkuwBJKgK

— Ramon Fornos (@ramonfornose) November 4, 2020

 

France (data)

Moyenne des cas #COVIDー19 détectés (Source bilan SPF by @Fabien_L)

➡️40558 cas (11,31% vs j-7)
➡️Moyenne à 44027 (16,46% vs j-7⬇️)

PS : les bilans SPF pointent les cas à réception du résultat du test alors que SIDEP prend en compte la date du prélèvement. SIDEP a 3j de retard pic.twitter.com/6MFI1k6d3R

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) November 4, 2020

+40 558 cas confirmés dans les dernières 24h.

⚠️Prudence : "Le nb de nouveaux cas de COVID-19 déclarés ce mercredi est un chiffre minimal et non consolidé en raison de difficultés identifiées dans la remontée des résultats de tests vers SPF."

source : https://t.co/4OdltF97TL pic.twitter.com/S8AnG9FSpf

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) November 4, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du 04/11 (01/11 pour les tests) : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU

⚠️Prudence dans les interpretations des données des tests, il semblerait qu'il y ait des retards importants dans la remontée des données.@EricBillyFR @Le___Doc #COVID19france pic.twitter.com/mUcjCXXyqF

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) November 4, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (01/11). Première estimation de la S44 complète (semaine dernière).

⚠️Prudence dans les interpretations, il semblerait qu'il y ait des retards importants dans la remontée des données. Suivez attentivement les prochains jours. pic.twitter.com/yvECUxVEv1

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) November 4, 2020

[THREAD]#MétéoCovidFrance du 04 novembre

Hospitalisations

France Métropolitaine :
3659 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (2790)
Moyenne 2674,29 ⬆️ J-1 (2550,14)

DOM :
22 entrées ⬇️ J-7 (31)
Moyenne 20,86 ⬇️ J-1 (22,14)

Graph sur toute la période et les 120 derniers jours

La suite ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/npoxwNc6Hc

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) November 4, 2020

1/ Répartition des patients actuellement hospitalisés avec diagnostic COVID-19 par région et classes d'âges au 04/11/2020 pic.twitter.com/uAX4z7PFSv

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) November 4, 2020

Mise à jour région par région du nombre total de personne hospitalisé et en Réanimation en France Métropolitaine + DOM.

25711 Hospitalisations
[+1269 ]
14 en hausse
0 stable
4en baisse

4080 Réanimations
[+211 ]
12 en hausse
4 stable
2 en baisse pic.twitter.com/8G0x9nZ08w

— Fabien_L (@Fabien_L) November 4, 2020

#PrevisionCovid
Nouveaux cas 70 à 89 ans
Entrées à l'hôpital (décalé 10 jours)
Décès (décalé 17j – échelle gauche)

Les hospi repartent à la hausse… Un mercredi… Pourquoi ? Les données hospitalières seraient-elles, elles aussi, affectées par des retards de traitement? pic.twitter.com/HyEdiwxw8Y

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) November 4, 2020

 

Italy (data)

Coronavirus in Italia, il bollettino di oggi 4 novembre: 30.550 nuovi casi e 352 morti https://t.co/srbkypEEXe

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) November 4, 2020

#Italy Targets #Milan, #Turin in Clampdown to Slow Virus Surge – Bloomberghttps://t.co/hpVnRvse1Y

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

News

JUST IN: Denver officials are considering imposing a curfew in the city to combat the rising cases of COVID-19 and hopefully avoid another stay-at-home order, which many fear would devastate the local economy https://t.co/LZFsTKBz6o

— The Denver Post (@denverpost) November 4, 2020

The latest forecast from UT Southwestern shows a 122% jump in Dallas County hospitalizations and a 130% jump in Tarrant County since late September.​ https://t.co/ny3XKvatpN

— FOX 4 NEWS (@FOX4) November 5, 2020

Wisconsin reports record-breaking total for COVID cases, hospitalizations and positiviy rate. There are 5,900 new cases and 54 deaths. They come as the country tops more than 100,000 cases in one day for the first time. — via @SCarson_News https://t.co/watO9AkAF2

— Patrick Marley (@patrickdmarley) November 4, 2020

Michigan has once again set a new daily record of confirmed COVID-19 cases with 4,101 reported Wednesday. https://t.co/iZNRdmyaGX

— The Detroit News (@detroitnews) November 4, 2020

Daily News | Pa., NJ see biggest one-day increase in COVID-19 cases | Coronavirus Newsletter https://t.co/jJA6k9tyiC

— Philly Daily News (@PhillyDailyNews) November 4, 2020

 

National data (CDC, Covid Tracking Project, Johns Hopkins University)

Note that hospitalizations were over 52,000 today. We will probably see record hospitalizations in the next week or two.

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 5, 2020

Hospitalization numbers peaked in 16 states today. 20 states have over 1,000 people currently hospitalized with COVID-19. pic.twitter.com/9vpAkVNoZb

— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) November 5, 2020

There are 34 states reporting over 1,000 cases — a new record. pic.twitter.com/FcnZ02qXvC

— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) November 5, 2020

U.S. sets new record for increase in #COVID_19 cases day after election – Reutershttps://t.co/h5rkCQpg5u

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

 

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases

 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Americas

Biden’s Wins in #Michigan, #Wisconsin Put Him on Brink of Victory – Bloomberghttps://t.co/RWrobItIYW

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

#Trump Team Pursues Contradictory Strategy as U.S. Counts Votes – Bloomberghttps://t.co/3Rpto2wHLI

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

A Joe Biden victory would likely mean a gridlock presidency, with faint hopes of achieving liberal policy aspirations https://t.co/9ZcCHDsx9G

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) November 5, 2020

Senate leader McConnell says wants coronavirus aid bill by year's end – Reutershttps://t.co/nDbj8adcOd

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

Gridlocked Washington Would Force #Fed to Do More for Economy – Bloomberghttps://t.co/S0m6K8b05E

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

U.S. Imposes Duty on Vietnam Tires, Cites ‘Undervalued’ Dong https://t.co/yW7B68r2IW

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) November 5, 2020

Asia

#China considers 5% annual GDP growth target for next five years: sources – Reutershttps://t.co/Ga2HsUoEql

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

Xi Seeks to Ease Concerns That #China’s Economy Is Turning Inward – Bloomberghttps://t.co/F6rciXRa3x 7

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

Aussie QE Program Scale Seen Nearing Fed’s as Buying Begins – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/EofD9po91V pic.twitter.com/tKN9M6zbAi

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

BOJ's Kuroda says no plan to review ETF purchases, shrugs of policy critics https://t.co/JvCATIM0gn pic.twitter.com/DChttPBhjO

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) November 5, 2020

Singapore re-opening plan ditches quarantine for tests, ratios https://t.co/IxTRQjQQ19

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) November 5, 2020

Europe

BOE delivers bigger-than-expected QE boost for slumping economy
Europe’s 2nd lockdown wave risks double-dip recessions
Fed to stay on the sidelines today amid election drama
Here’s a rundown of your top economic news today https://t.co/ocF6QEDeg3

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 5, 2020

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (November 5th)

*Focus on #Germany, #Spain, #France and #Italy

HT @FLAHAULT, @ForexLive, @ngbpadel2, @mianrey, @ramonfornose, @gforestier, @starjoin, @Fabien_L, @Corrierehttps://t.co/to5ITJU3oC

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

#Eurozone: Latest Restrictions Linked To #Covid_19 (An Update)https://t.co/yMbqqvdOOn

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

#BOE Monetary Policy Summary
*Link: https://t.co/Tn2t2cudGe pic.twitter.com/48BHb8NcMC

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

*EU NEGOTIATORS CLEAR KEY RECOVERY FUND HURDLE – BBG
*EU PRESIDENCY SPOKESMAN: PRELIM. RULE OF LAW AGREEMENT REACHED

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

German factory orders continued to recover before new Covid wave https://t.co/hpuDiayFub

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 5, 2020

#BOC #BOE #BOJ #ECB #FED | Latest data confirmed #G7 CBs combined balance sheet (BS) kept climbing in October.
*#G7 CBs combined BS has grown by more than $7.5T since February. pic.twitter.com/rY1qi1zYx6

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

Bloomberg proxy of Global Money Supply also skyrocketed from March and kept rising in October pic.twitter.com/REzvE4FRyd

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

Futures indicated at 169% market cap to GDP. This accounts for the Q3 GDP bounce. Yesterday's close shows again a record disconnect between asset prices vis a vis the economy. pic.twitter.com/3aw0vl4nJC

— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) November 5, 2020

Breadth almost made history yesterday:$SPX gained over +2% while <50% of Stocks advanced.

That's a lot of weakness but not necessarily Bearish – *unless* it persists (see '99-00, '07-08).

Will be critical to watch if Breadth expands or narrows from here.

h/t @bespokeinvest pic.twitter.com/HCNAkJ2DLG

— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) November 5, 2020

When Nasdaq surges but the S&P 500 equal weighted index barely budges?

Only happened two other times in history.

Both in April 2000.
Right at the peak of the tech bubble.

Sound familiar? pic.twitter.com/pUOV6irMVz

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) November 5, 2020

As I flagged, U.S. New Vehicle Sales surprised to the downside in October. According to Wards data, they decreased by 0.8%, reaching 16.21M SAAR and coming below the Bloomberg consensus of 16.50Me. It was the first drop since April. The decline in sales was concentrated in the light truck segment while sales of passenger vehicles were resilient.

 

The October’s fall is a negative sign in a context where the federal government’s CARES Act programs for the most part expired at the end of July and a new wave of coronavirus recently hit several states in cooler regions. The trend is likely to deteriorate further in the coming months with coronavirus spreading through the entire country while uncertainty linked to the election could spark uncertainty.

 

FUNDSTRAT: Daily COVID cases “are now becoming parabolic. Total USA cases surged past 100,000 for the first time. For the foreseeable future, daily cases will keep rising. .. And 3 of the 4 wave 2 states, FL, CA, TX .. are in the top 10 again.” @fundstrat pic.twitter.com/gfTYClcpSm

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) November 5, 2020

 

In this context, the auto sector could weigh negatively on October retail sales that will be released on November 17th. It confirms my view that, at best, 4Q GDP growth will slow dramatically compared to 3Q while another GDP contraction looks credible at this stage. The fact is the rapid spread of Covid-19 will force more states to implement restrictive measures in the coming weeks.

Before starting, it’s important to remember that the U.S. employment report presents statistics from two major surveys, the Current Population Survey (CPS; household survey) and the Current Employment Statistics survey (CES; establishment survey). The most important thing is that, according to the BLS, “For both surveys, the data for a given month relate to a particular week or pay period. In the household survey, the reference period is generally the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month. In the establishment survey, the reference period is the pay period including the 12th, which may or may not correspond directly to the calendar week.”

 

Using a new set of data, Homebase “indicated a more pronounced decline across their three metrics beginning in the first week of October.” It added that “Northern states in cooler climates saw sharper declines than their southern counterparts.”

 

Northern states in cooler climates saw sharper declines than their southern counterparts, reinforcing our hypothesis from last month that dropping temperatures will slow down small business activity. pic.twitter.com/PqRVa8V7FU

— homebase_data (@homebase_data) October 30, 2020

 

Signals from monthly surveys were also disappointing. ADP reported Wednesday that private payrolls increased by just 365k, well below the Bloomberg consensus of 643k, and also below prior figure of 753k in September. In the meantime, although the ISM Manufacturing survey shows the employment component improved in October (53.2 v 49.6 prior), the ISM Services points to some weakness in October (50.1 v 51.8 prior).

 

The U.S. job market slowed very sharply last month, per @ADP. “Employment growth is continuing to slow and the new wave of virus cases is only likely to exacerbate that trend.” https://t.co/S1N0Y7QfUE via @economics pic.twitter.com/UPxhAeSqOv

— Steve Matthews (@SteveMatthews12) November 4, 2020

 

Hard data for October also flagged potential for a downward surprise with new auto sales dropping for the first time since April.

 

U.S. New Vehicle Sales Fell For The First Time Since April, Flashing GDP Slowdownhttps://t.co/YETG3kW4Eh

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2020

 

Looking at specific factors, in a post, Bill McBride suggested that “Brick and Mortar retailers could be more cautious this year, and retail might decline SA in October.” His analysis looks coherent in a context where the current wave of coronavirus has gained traction since September.

 

October Employment Preview https://t.co/PetIUullHJ Temp Census hiring will subtract 147K Jobs. Also seasonal retail hiring will be something to look at. pic.twitter.com/s77TD2cDRc

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 5, 2020


 

Finally, the Census Bureau released an update on 2020 Census Paid Temporary Workers, which shows that the employment report will subtract 147,311 temporary jobs.
 

 

All in all, it seems that most of indicators (surveys, high frequency and hard data) and technical factors point to a downside surprise for Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus of 585k).