Daily Archives: November 2, 2020

Summary Key Macro Events

EU and British Brexit negotiators will continue talks in Brussels on Monday and until around mid-week (2)

ISM Manufacturing for October (2)

Hong Kong’s embattled leader, Chief Executive Carrie Lam, will begin a three-day trip to Beijing to discuss plans to revive the financial hub’s economy – Nikkei (3)

In Australia, investors expect the central bank will cut rates on Tuesday, coupled with the introduction of further quantitative easing, though the they are unsure of the exact mix – FT (3)

Americans will vote on Tuesday to decide whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden will be president of the US (3)

ISM Services for October (4)

Ant Group makes its much-anticipated stock market debut in Hong Kong and Shanghai after successfully concluding the world’s largest initial public offering (5)

The Bank of England announces its policy decision on Thursday after a meeting where the latest lockdown announcement over the weekend will have loomed large – FT (5)

The Federal Reserve will hold its meeting a day later than usual because of the election, with a policy announcement due at 2pm on Thursday (5)

Employment Report for October (6)

 


 

Earnings

This Week's Most Notable #Earnings (via @eWhispers)

*Mon: $PYPL $CLX $ANET $SEDG
*Tues: $W $RACE $HUM
*Wed: $QCOM $HLT $H $WEN $MTCH $MELI $PAYC
*Thurs: $SQ $BABA $PTON $UBER $GM $PZZA $ROKU $NET $EA $TTWO $GOLD $SPCE $AZN $BMY $CRON $TTD
*Fri: $CVS $IMGN $MAR $VIAC$SPY $QQQ pic.twitter.com/JtrpYaR0EA

— Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) November 1, 2020

#earnings for the week https://t.co/lObOE0dgsr $PYPL $SQ $BABA $CLX $ROKU $W $PTON $QCOM $WING $SWKS $CVS $GOLD $NET $SPCE $GM $HZNP $LL $MPC $AZN $WM $TTD $EL $DBX $AYX $ON $ZNGA $CWH $AMCX $MELI $SEDG $REGN $CPE $LDOS $AMRN $UBER $BMY $KPTI $LITE $HUM $WEN $BHC $MCK $CPLP pic.twitter.com/HukZHD8G6u

— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) October 31, 2020

 


 

U.S. Faces Biggest Week of 2020 With Election, Fed, Jobs Report – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/iYi3wtawc1 pic.twitter.com/xAMXoY7Yiu

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 1, 2020

US election, Fed and BoE meetings, American jobs data https://t.co/oAGKdszyEt

— FT Economics (@fteconomics) November 1, 2020

Your Week in Asia
— Trump vs Biden
— Ant Group debut
— TikTok in courthttps://t.co/0bxhACfHqj

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) November 1, 2020

*Here are https://t.co/HMaYPuSux7's #Top5ThingsToWatch this week:

* #PresidentialElection
*Wall Street volatility
*Fed meeting
* #NonFarmPayrolls
*BoE meetinghttps://t.co/9f1AdO7946

— Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 1, 2020

UK and EU officials are zeroing in on a solution to break the 8-month-long deadlock over one of the biggest obstacles to their planned trade deal https://t.co/UiHnk6xiTR

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 1, 2020

The U.S. central bankers are widely expected to hold fire on any additional stimulus measures in the midst of the election. Powell may though leave the door open to adjusting Fed bond purchases at a later meeting, perhaps as soon as December https://t.co/lrLANaV4Ab pic.twitter.com/zzwvd0pbyQ

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 1, 2020

The Bank of England looks certain to unleash another burst of monetary stimulus this week as new coronavirus lockdowns shock the economy and put yet more pressure on government finances (via @_DavidGoodman & @lucy_meakin) https://t.co/dFsWNVoMgg

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 2, 2020

 


 

Focus on Economic Calendar

Schedule for Week of November 1, 2020 https://t.co/vdjuLmopr1 The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday.

The FOMC meets on Wednesday and Thursday this week, and no change in policy is expected.

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) October 31, 2020

Note: October Employment Report Will Show a Decrease of 147,000 Temporary Census Workers https://t.co/E5HQgaRZPF

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) October 27, 2020

U.S. ECONOMIC DATA THIS WEEK:

*ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (MON.)
*PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (TUES.)
*ADP NONFARM PAYROLLS (WED.)
*ISM SERVICES PMI (WED.)
*FED DECISION (THURS.)
*JOBLESS CLAIMS (THURS.)
*NONFARM PAYROLLS (FRI.)
*UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (FRI.)

⚠️ https://t.co/zssQozcKnb$SPY pic.twitter.com/c2GE27of2N

— Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 1, 2020

 


 

Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Previous Week – w44

⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w44 ⚠

HT @jsblokland, @TaviCosta, @BittelJulien, @jessefelder, @vol_christopher, @dlacalle_IA, @fwred, @JeffreyKleintophttps://t.co/WfQwMDwSZD

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 2, 2020

 

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, all European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 50 per 100,000 inhabitants.

 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Nov. 1st)

 

Blog | Coronavirus, l'impatto della prima ondata sulla mortalità in Europa – Info Data https://t.co/rPrS1eCZC3 pic.twitter.com/ZzyUCqbWPq

— IlSole24ORE (@sole24ore) November 1, 2020

 

Swiss Try Light Touch #Virus Curbs in Effort to Keep Economy Open – Bloomberghttps://t.co/c7lrV5krLj

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 1, 2020

 

New Covid lockdown in England: Gove warns that restrictions could be extended – Times
*England’s four-week national lockdown could be extended beyond December 2, Michael Gove has warned as scientists said it could last for longer than the first one.https://t.co/N7jM9IFTZU

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 2, 2020

 

#Eurozone: Latest Restrictions Linked To #Covid_19 (An Update – November 1st)https://t.co/yMbqqvdOOn

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 1, 2020

 

1/21. Nov 02 to Nov 08 – #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries with new risk maps.
Data: @ECDC_EU or https://t.co/lsAJmfF616 or https://t.co/YgpOxMJcyy

Dashboard: https://t.co/xJNfRM6DJZ

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience pic.twitter.com/6dJhDOLHP0

— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) November 1, 2020

 

Germany (data)

Germany reports 12,097 new coronavirus cases as 'lockdown light' begins today https://t.co/AUxbydOFdc

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) November 2, 2020

 

Spain (data)

2/2) ÉVOLUTION DE #COVID19 À #BARCELONA, publiée aujourd'hui, 01/11 à 11h32, correspondant hier (3 derniers jours provisoires). Données des 10 derniers jours. Oubreak Risk, CFR, R-eff et décès, descente. Occupations des hôpitaux et USI, augmentation. Source : @salutcat pic.twitter.com/1Lo67Qn3mU

— Ramon Fornos (@ramonfornose) November 1, 2020

En el último día en los hospitales de la Comunidad de Madrid se han producido 206 ingresos COVID nuevos en planta y 21 en UCI, además han fallecido 30 personas y se han dado 104 altas pic.twitter.com/k6Mx3sO1lm

— Miguel Ángel Reinoso (@mianrey) November 1, 2020

 

France (data)

#FRANCE REPORTS 46,290 NEW #CORONAVIRUS CASES IN PAST 24 HOURS (V 35,641 PRIOR AND 52,010 LAST SUNDAY)
*Positivity Rate: 20.4%❗ (v 20.2% prior and 17.0% last Sunday).
*Santé Publique France: https://t.co/bZLT3Rguuz pic.twitter.com/pCTpsEpymW

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 1, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du 01/11 (29/10 pour les tests) : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU @EricBillyFR @Le___Doc #COVID19france pic.twitter.com/uwTj4b2w5J

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) November 2, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (29/10). Seules les données des 26-27-28-29/10 sont disponibles pour la S44 (semaine dernière).

Cartes de chaleur d'incidence et de positivité disponibles pour chaque département ici : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU pic.twitter.com/ogVnFkjMe8

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) November 2, 2020

[THREAD]#MétéoCovidFrance du 01 novembre

Hospitalisations

France Métropolitaine :
1870 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (1286)
Moyenne 2471,29 ⬆️ J-1 (2387,86)

DOM :
13 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (12)
Moyenne 21,57 ⬆️ J-1 (21,43)

Graph sur toute la période et les 120 derniers jours

La suite ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/KhatqncKCD

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) November 1, 2020

Mise à jour région par région du nombre total de personne hospitalisé et en Réanimation en France Métropolitaine + DOM.

24008 Hospitalisations
[+995 ]
13 en hausse
3 stable
2 en baisse

3358 Réanimations
[+126 ]
10 en hausse
5 stable
3 en baisse pic.twitter.com/TuoosNggKp

— Fabien_L (@Fabien_L) November 1, 2020

#PrevisionCovid
Nouveaux cas 70 à 89 ans
Entrées à l'hôpital (décalé 10 jours)
Décès (décalé 17j – échelle gauche)

La courbe des hospi continue de décrocher. En revanche, ce n'est pas le cas (encore ?) des décès. pic.twitter.com/IKoSQEthdF

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) November 1, 2020

 

Italy (data)

#ITALY REPORTS 29,907 NEW #CORONAVIRUS CASES VS 31,758 SATURDAY – BBG pic.twitter.com/1J6cdbf7MX

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 1, 2020

L’andamento dell’epidemia: la mappa, i dati e le tendenze https://t.co/c2cU09HZW4 pic.twitter.com/CY0Cp82aUM

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) November 1, 2020

In Italia 29.907 nuovi casi e 208 morti in 24 ore. In terapia intensiva più di 1900 persone https://t.co/T7S8rKtB1D

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) November 1, 2020

#Italy has 48 hours to approve new #COVID_19 restrictions: Health Minister – Reutershttps://t.co/iTIutWewMB

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 1, 2020

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Is #value investing dead? Biggest value drawdown since 1826. Chart by @FT pic.twitter.com/LInpzSyDTz

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) October 26, 2020

Frothy. pic.twitter.com/uYpKPXIXbZ

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 28, 2020

Even after today’s US Q3 GDP beat, equities are still trading on a 1.6X market cap/GDP ratio, 14% higher than Dot-com peak levels & still in the 100th percentile of its historical distribution over 70Y. Valuations this extreme generally imply more downside for equities vs. bonds. pic.twitter.com/Gxh40frJNG

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) October 29, 2020

'The 10 largest stock markets represent 78.8% of the global stock market value. The top two—the NYSE and Nasdaq—capture 46%.' https://t.co/GR9lJJnnXB by @VisualCap pic.twitter.com/QUP4Lby2lU

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) October 30, 2020

The stock market is now a derivative of the options market pic.twitter.com/XGBZFv8Z5p

— Christopher Cole (@vol_christopher) October 29, 2020

ICYMI! : Cash levels in the US have risen by USD 4 trillion since March. pic.twitter.com/ApckrmLihf

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) November 1, 2020

European earnings: The downgrade cycle resumes… pic.twitter.com/UehDuTsR5U

— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) October 27, 2020

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: long-term expectations have stabilised both for inflation and GDP, although I suspect that real expectations are more like ¯_(ツ)_/¯. pic.twitter.com/J925pV6RkS

— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) October 30, 2020

Service sector lockdowns hitting restaurants hard: ex. Ireland pic.twitter.com/4kzfhDshzP

— Jeffrey Kleintop (@JeffreyKleintop) October 29, 2020

More evidence underpinning a deterioration in EUR/USD. The spread in US vs. EZ consumer confidence ticked higher in Oct amid a growing number of Covid cases across Europe. A bout of further rel. strength would be a headwind. Divergences tend to close via EUR/USD closing the gap. pic.twitter.com/j5wJDfuNKV

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) October 30, 2020

News

White House Slams Fauci After Critical Comments on Pandemic – Bloomberghttps://t.co/6O7RIkdFcB

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 2, 2020

At least 31 states set their one-day #coronavirus case records in October – CNNhttps://t.co/6nm2Ggg098

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 2, 2020

Google searches for COVID symptoms rising across the United States, but surging particularly fast in the Midwest (in line with what we're seeing in tests). Via @DataArbor pic.twitter.com/1V9BtlYOY8

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) November 2, 2020

Florida adds 4,865 coronavirus cases Sunday as total death toll nears 17,000 https://t.co/UCAyisovzV

— Tampa Bay Times (@TB_Times) November 2, 2020

BREAKING: Utah counts 10 more COVID-19 deaths, hospitalizations jump in maxed healthcare system.https://t.co/aZbuxDgDaW

— KUTV2news (@KUTV2News) November 1, 2020

North Carolina reports 1,994 new COVID-19 cases after 3-day streak of case increases over 2K https://t.co/JZ8ksn5A5H pic.twitter.com/uG96cAPjrF

— WTKR News 3 (@WTKR3) November 1, 2020

On Friday, Oregon set a record for a single-day jump in coronavirus cases, and Saturday the state tied the previous high for reported COVID-19 deaths. https://t.co/eLeYKWY7X7

— KATU News (@KATUNews) November 2, 2020

 

National data (CDC)

November 1 COVID-19 Test Results https://t.co/owluZBydZI Bad News. pic.twitter.com/dAr9wyW4Xo

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 2, 2020

Our daily update is published. States reported 1.1 million tests and 74k cases, almost 10k more than last Sunday. 48k people are currently hospitalized with COVID-19. Today's death toll was 388. pic.twitter.com/MrwVMHvCA5

— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) November 2, 2020

U.S. coronavirus cases keep rising in grim march to Election Day https://t.co/6C0aWnhCCr pic.twitter.com/SMCIm2Mr6V

— Reuters (@Reuters) November 2, 2020

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases

 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Americas

United States #Covid_19: Daily Summary (November 2nd)

HT @TB_Times, @KUTV2News, @WTKR3, @KATUNews, @Reuters, @calculatedrisk, @COVID19Tracking https://t.co/o0VM4aOYMY

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 2, 2020

Coronavirus latest: US disease control agency pledges to help revive cruise ship sector https://t.co/NOzfHSG8qs

— Financial Times (@FT) November 1, 2020

BofA: 'The overall composition of the Senate is unlikely to be determined until sometime in January due to election rules in Georgia which stipulates the race goes to a runoff if no candidates garners 50% majority."

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 1, 2020

#Philadelphia Expects to Need Several Days to Count Mail Ballots – Bloomberghttps://t.co/UMgyVlvqpc

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 2, 2020

Biden begins two-day campaign sprint in battleground Pennsylvania https://t.co/ZyJ3hZfSya pic.twitter.com/J8XSFedvAs

— The Hill (@thehill) November 2, 2020

Poll: Biden opens up 10-point lead over Trump nationwide https://t.co/mECTql1oVZ pic.twitter.com/x7jXk13YYN

— The Hill (@thehill) November 2, 2020

Potential stock winners and losers from Tuesday's U.S. election https://t.co/5InGJvimSo pic.twitter.com/8QOiFkEn0S

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) November 2, 2020

Asia

Asia stocks climbed buoyed by upbeat China factory activity in volatile start to crucial week spanning US election & Fed meeting, events that could set tone for markets for rest of 2020. Bonds gain w/US 10y at 0.85%. Oil tumbled to 5mth low. Gold & Bitcoin unch at $1882 & $13.7k. pic.twitter.com/mzXZgPmJZa

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) November 2, 2020

#CHINA OCT CAIXIN PMI #MANUFACTURING: 53.6 V 52.8E (highest since Jan 2011, 6th month of expansion)
*Link: https://t.co/l84L65Vvmp pic.twitter.com/bF7gVPerlq

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 2, 2020

#China regional GDP data shows growing economic divide, exacerbated by #coronavirus – SCMPhttps://t.co/ycQMhe2x9D

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 2, 2020

Japan’s car sales surged in October, rising at the fastest pace in more than 8 years as the economy continues to bounce back https://t.co/Un8zuWlxmT

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 2, 2020

Australian home prices rose for the first time in 6 months in October, with gains in every state capital except Melbourne https://t.co/fqFcm0DkXE

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 2, 2020

EXCLUSIVE: China-Australia relations: import ban on Australian copper, sugar expected after blocks on lobster, timber, barley, reports @SuLin_Tan #Australia #China #china #lobster #copper #timber #sugar #barley https://t.co/YZAtIkpBei pic.twitter.com/abET6Fwtvy

— SCMP Economy (@scmpeconomy) November 2, 2020

China presses ahead with smaller import fair amid pandemic https://t.co/HQFJJ1cnQY pic.twitter.com/TFvR9NHeNs

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) November 2, 2020

Europe

Here's a rundown of your top economic news today https://t.co/hPqUXDFcly

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) November 2, 2020

Oil prices drop as new lockdowns hit economic outlook https://t.co/QgXvsrTPUV

— Financial Times (@FT) November 2, 2020

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (November 2nd)

*Focus on #Germany, #Spain, #France and #Italy

HT @sole24ore, @FLAHAULT, @ForexLive, @ramonfornose, @mianrey, @gforestier, @starjoin, @Fabien_L, @Corrierehttps://t.co/cOpNu7GnFw

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 2, 2020

#EUROZONE OCT FINAL #MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.8 V 54.4E (confirms 4th month of expansion and highest reading since Aug 2018)
*Link: https://t.co/tRUBBbUuN2 pic.twitter.com/bNGX7qLqEL

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 2, 2020

As I expected ⚠ https://t.co/K1e5XN1gbL ⚠ ⬇

#Eurozone economic forecasts slashed as fresh lockdowns imposed – FT
*The eurozone economy is now expected to shrink by 2.3% in 4Qhttps://t.co/MrXcRvsXOu

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 1, 2020

European authorities could “do anything” to help boost the economy, says Fabio Panetta, a member of the ECB’s executive board https://t.co/SlbZ75tYOQ

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 2, 2020

Analysts look divided concerning U.S. new vehicle sales in October after they rebounded by 90.4% MoM since April (Wards data). According to the Bloomberg consensus, they should rise to 16.50m(e) SAAR, up from 16.34m in September.

 

 

However, two out of four specialists I’m following closely, are betting on a sharp downward surprise in a context where the federal government’s CARES Act programs for the most part expired at the end of July and a new wave of coronavirus hit several states in cooler regions.

 

1- ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,307,998 units in October 2020, down 6.1% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15.7 million units.

 

2- In the meantime, Industry consultants J.D. Power and LMC Automotive saidthe seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new vehicle sales is expected to be 15.9 million units, down 0.8 million units from 2019, the smallest year-over-year decline since the pandemic began.

 

3- At the opposite, Cox Automotive notedthe seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales is expected to finish near 16.4 million, up slightly from September’s surprisingly strong 16.3 million rate but down from last year’s 16.8 million level

 

4- Finally, Wards Intelligence expects sales to reach 16.8 million SAAR.

'Speculative investors boosted bullish wagers on the U.S. stock market to the highest level in almost two years.' https://t.co/xlCud9lbET pic.twitter.com/xyMJ6ZVjuS

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 2, 2020

Smart Money Confidence was only at 31%. This is usually closer to 60% after pullbacks.https://t.co/iy1ggEh9bG pic.twitter.com/lBP3pmMp78

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) November 2, 2020

With 75% of companies reported, Q3 S&P 500 GAAP earnings down 5% over the last year, S&P 500 Sales down 3.7%. $SPX pic.twitter.com/04Dmwb4BU7

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) November 2, 2020

Every ISM component higher except customer inventories pic.twitter.com/EgI7nsU8c3

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 2, 2020

Going back to Truman, Trump is the only President who has never topped 50% Gallup Approval rating. https://t.co/ffNSfZRtHV pic.twitter.com/re88WOYo0U

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 2, 2020