Daily Archives: October 22, 2020




 

On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will release the Existing Home Sales (EHS) report for September. According to the Bloomberg consensus, EHS should increase by 5.0% MoM to 6.30M SAAR.

→ My proxies confirm that EHS will beat expectations*:

→ Local/state data and different reports also point to a jump of median home sales price (largest ever on a YoY basis) amid an ongoing decline in inventory.

 


 

1. Buyers continued to benefit from favorable market conditions with mortgage rates recently reaching the lowest level on record

Fundamentals kept on improving with a significant decline of mortgage rates. According to Freddie Mac, the average for a 30-year fixed-rate loan reached 2.81% last week, the lowest level ever.
 

The avg. 30-Yr FRM hits record low at 2.81% https://t.co/Cj2GH9Tofy

Chief Economist @TheSamKhater: "This week, mortgage rates have dropped to the lowest level we have experienced in the 50-year history of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey."

— Freddie Mac (@FreddieMac) October 15, 2020

 

2. Local/state reports confirm that sales kept accelerating on a YoY basis in September

Local/state figures suggest that national existing home sales (non-seasonally adjusted: NSA) are likely to have jumped on a YoY basis in September (third straight rise). The pace of increase (NSA) would probably exceed 20% YoY, partly boosted by higher business day count this September. In addition, there is evidence that many households chose to relocate due to coronavirus pandemic with some of them prefering suburbs due to demand for spacious homes. Using my sample of local/state data and a seasonal adjustment factor higher than last year (less favorable), I expect September EHS to beat the consensus of +5.0% MoM (seasonally adjusted: SA).

 

3. Another increase in Existing Home Sales would be coherent with the bounce in Pending Home Sales

As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) noted, “The Pending Home Sales Index (PHS), a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing-Home Sales by a month or two.” Therefore, It would be coherent if EHS catch up with PHS as suggested by the chart below.
 

 

4. Median home sales price skyrocketed amid an ongoing decline in inventory

Local/state reports also pointed to a sharp drop of single-family home inventory in September. As a result, the deficit of supply relative to demand supported prices for single-family home sales, which would result in the largest increase on record (YoY) for median price. As a reminder, the mix of home sales is skewed toward single family home sales, which mechanicaly boosts the median. This view perfectly fits with the latest Redfin report, “ which showed that the national median home price rose 14.4% year over year to $333,900 in September, the biggest annual increase of any month” since data are recorded (2012). Finally, yesterday, the Beige Book highlighted that “The inventory of homes for sale dropped by double-digit percentages from a year ago in all reporting markets except Boston condos. In Massachusetts and New Hampshire, the inventory of single family homes decreased by over 55 percent. The median sale price rose in all markets, with double-digit increases for single family homes.


 

*I perfectly forecasted the level of EHS in July and August.

 

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, all European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.

 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Oct. 21st)

 

#Greece sees record daily rise in COVID-19 cases – AA
*Northern city of Kastoria to have lockdown imposed as of Fridayhttps://t.co/W3GnWacusV

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 22, 2020

 

#Czech government shuts shops, curbs movement to stem COVID-19 surge – Reutershttps://t.co/bnHtSv2qUo

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 21, 2020

 

#Eurozone: Latest Restrictions Linked To #Covid_19 (An Update)
*Daily Summary: https://t.co/3IC6J5lxlbhttps://t.co/yMbqqvdOOn

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 18, 2020

 

1/21. Oct 22 to Oct 28 – #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries/territories.
21 countries analyzed in the thread.
Data: @ECDC_EU or https://t.co/lsAJmfF616 or https://t.co/YgpOxMJcyy
Dashboard: https://t.co/YTRsgEESvy
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience pic.twitter.com/XantQxNtgY

— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) October 21, 2020

 

Germany (data)

New German coronavirus cases rise by more than 10,000 for first time – RKI – Reuters
*Link: https://t.co/lSDYx1Xwrv pic.twitter.com/s8682MHT7w

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 22, 2020

 

Spain (data)

Datos por comunidades 21/10/2020:

⚠️Hoy hay 16.973 nuevos positivos

– Evolución IA= Incidencia acumulada (indica cuantos casos, proporcional a 100.000 hab)
– Razón de tasas
– Situación global y número de casos, compara con IA de 7 y 14 días

Sigue hilo pic.twitter.com/HYBfbPttrD

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) October 21, 2020

➡️Gráficas de casos notificados por día y acumulados en 14 y 7 días.

Hoy hay 16.973 casos nuevos. El miércoles pasado fueron 11.970. Hace 2 miércoles fueron 10.491. Hace 3 miércoles 11.016. pic.twitter.com/nELObwsQJk

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) October 21, 2020

DATOS COVID-19 ESPAÑA

POSITIVOS PCR
✔️ +16.973 total
✔️ 6.114 día previo

156 FALLECIDOS

13.698 HOSP. [+410 ]
1.930 UCI [+19 ]

* País Vasco no actualiza
(ha informado de 819 casos)

⚠️ —> + +

HILO pic.twitter.com/z50v3Q8npE

— Miguel Ángel Reinoso (@mianrey) October 21, 2020

Sigue creciendo el número de personas hospitalizadas por coronavirus en España respecto a los valores de ayer:

12.011 HOSPITALIZADOS
[+267 ]
17 crecen
2 decrecen

1.752 UCI
[+17 ]
12 crecen
4 sin cambios
3 decrecen pic.twitter.com/5iUaSl62r7

— Miguel Ángel Reinoso (@mianrey) October 21, 2020

 

France (data)

Moyenne des cas #COVIDー19 détectés (Source bilan SPF by @Fabien_L)

➡️26676 cas (18,08% vs j-7)
➡️Moyenne à 25480 (47,06% vs j-7⬇️)

PS : les bilans SPF pointent les cas à réception du résultat du test alors que SIDEP prend en compte la date du prélèvement. SIDEP a 3j de retard. pic.twitter.com/GWT4KyW3Mg

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 21, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du 21/10 (18/10 pour les tests) : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU @EricBillyFR @Le___Doc #COVID19france pic.twitter.com/1BKGjF8bye

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 21, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (18/10). Première estimation de la S42 complète (semaine dernière). Suivre l'évolution avec les données disponibles dans les prochains jours : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU pic.twitter.com/xVe9xKHyDI

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 21, 2020

[THREAD]#MétéoCovidFrance du 21 octobre

Hospitalisations

France Métropolitaine :
1743 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (1116)
Moyenne 1323,14 ⬆️ J-1 (1233,57)

DOM :
11 entrées ⬇️ J-7 (17)
Moyenne 16,00 ⬇️ J-1 (16,86)

Graph sur toute la période et les 120 derniers jours

La suite ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/7eiTcyP2Is

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 21, 2020

Mise à jour région par région du nombre total de personne hospitalisé et en Réanimation en France Métropolitaine + DOM.

13162 Hospitalisations
[+727 ]
12 en hausse
1 stable
5 en baisse

2239 Réanimations
[+71 ]
11 en hausse
3 stable
4 en baisse pic.twitter.com/WMCPeDvcmw

— Fabien_L (@Fabien_L) October 21, 2020

[GRAPH PREDICTIF]
Moyenne glissante 7 jours :
Nouveaux cas 70 à 89 ans
Entrées à l'hôpital (décalé 10 jours)
Décès (décalé 17j – échelle gauche)

L'augmentation des hospitalisations devraient continuer à accélérer vers les 2000 par jour ainsi que les décès (vers les 300). pic.twitter.com/Kl1jZWaigp

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 21, 2020

#France | More French regions will have to impose curfew: government – Reutershttps://t.co/cEZdM9jG2g

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 21, 2020

 

Italy (data)

#ITALY REPORTS 15,199 NEW #CORONAVIRUS CASES (New Record) VS 10,874 TUESDAY – BBG

*ITALY'S CONTE: CANNOT RULE OUT OTHER REGIONAL CURFEWS pic.twitter.com/xFi7HVK9oE

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 21, 2020

Coronavirus in Italia, il bollettino di oggi 21 ottobre: 15.199 nuovi casi e 127 morti https://t.co/P8SZtamQ3U

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) October 21, 2020


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

New German coronavirus cases rise by more than 10,000 for first time – RKI – Reuters
*Link: https://t.co/lSDYx1Xwrv pic.twitter.com/s8682MHT7w

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 22, 2020

Good Morning from #Germany where the second corona wave w/record new infections shows first negative consequences in the real-time data. Germany is the biggest faller among the big4 European econs this week. Economic activity dropped 4ppt to 73% of normal levels. (via Jefferies) pic.twitter.com/8wiwNN6Yh1

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 22, 2020

#GERMANY NOV GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -3.1 V -3.0E (4-month low)
– Prior revised lower from -1.6 to -1.7 pic.twitter.com/7KFJrepsxK

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 22, 2020

Germans’ demand for toilet paper is once again on the rise https://t.co/QzKUF28RaN

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 22, 2020

Half of Europe’s Smaller Businesses Risk Bankruptcy Within Year – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/bCZiYExMBf pic.twitter.com/07dPTY1YyQ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 22, 2020

Americas

Investors combed through quarterly results from Tesla, Chipotle, Snap and Netflix as Wall Street failed to hear of any progress on economic stimulus talks in Washington. More here: https://t.co/c8kaEQ0lEz pic.twitter.com/5IO2Xd1tQF

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 22, 2020

Tesla reported its fifth consecutive quarterly profit on record revenue of $8.8 billion, boosted by an uptick in vehicle deliveries and sales of environmental regulatory credits to other automakers https://t.co/91fIuiDaly $TSLA

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 22, 2020

#Electric-Vehicle Startups Are Wall Street’s Hot New Thing. No Revenue? No Problem. – WSJhttps://t.co/Fvo9ZLbPLZ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 22, 2020

Pelosi, Mnuchin to Talk Stimulus Thursday With Senate Skeptical – Bloomberghttps://t.co/KQql99vgPf

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 22, 2020

As U.S. election odds narrow, market analysts factor in higher risks https://t.co/tQzJ7UFAVe pic.twitter.com/aeMFnPxwbZ

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 21, 2020

US designates 6 more Chinese media companies as foreign missions.https://t.co/CxQNccEYLn

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) October 22, 2020

US moves ahead with $1.8bn in potential arms sales to Taiwan.https://t.co/dFZdR7UB5l

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) October 22, 2020

Asia

Asian shares drop as U.S. stimulus talks drag on https://t.co/GsUMLqVf7Y pic.twitter.com/vVe2ehfudW

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 22, 2020

Rebounding Chinese economy will expand this year: top officials.https://t.co/NZ3nTfDGUx

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) October 22, 2020

#JAPAN'S AMARI: CERTAIN THERE WILL BE A THIRD EXTRA BUDGET – BBG
*JAPAN'S AMARI: THIRD EXTRA BUDGET TO COME AROUND DEC 14-15

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 22, 2020

Japan will compile another extra budget this year, adding to two earlier supplementary ones, says the ruling party's tax chief https://t.co/NsrQ8SC5S7

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 22, 2020

Japan's latest greenhouse gas emissions goal to be as ambitious as Europe's.https://t.co/fagxV3PXmy

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) October 22, 2020

China Foreign Ministry: On US State Dpt Approving Potential Arms Sales To Taiwan
Says It Severely Violates China Internal Affairs
China Urges US To Stop Arms Sales

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 22, 2020

Europe

A spectacular 1986 goal still inspires the debate about BOE policy
Covid is a dress rehearsal for Brexit for UK companies
It's rate decision day in Turkey, Ukraine, Israel
Here's a rundown of your top economic news today https://t.co/9sbv2hoYlF

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 22, 2020

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (October 22nd)

*Focus on #Germany, #Spain, #France and #Italy

HT @FLAHAULT, @ngbpadel2, @mianrey, @gforestier, @starjoin, @Fabien_L, @Corriere https://t.co/r7iX0bpEHH

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 22, 2020

#Eurozone: Latest Restrictions Linked To #Covid_19 (An Update)
*Daily Summary: https://t.co/3IC6J5lxlbhttps://t.co/yMbqqvdOOn

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 18, 2020

Good Morning from #Germany where the second corona wave w/record new infections shows first negative consequences in the real-time data. Germany is the biggest faller among the big4 European econs this week. Economic activity dropped 4ppt to 73% of normal levels. (via Jefferies) pic.twitter.com/8wiwNN6Yh1

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 22, 2020

#GERMANY NOV GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -3.1 V -3.0E (4-month low)
– Prior revised lower from -1.6 to -1.7 pic.twitter.com/7KFJrepsxK

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 22, 2020

En octobre 2020, le climat des affaires en France et celui de l’emploi se replient, sous l’effet des services en…https://t.co/tCzW5WkXgG

— Insee (@InseeFr) October 22, 2020

Bank of England policy makers still have plenty of headroom to expand asset purchases if need, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden says https://t.co/I0xAsO1kxz

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 22, 2020