Daily Archives: October 12, 2020

Summary Key Macro Events

The U.S. State Department has until Monday to submit to Congress a report on foreign individuals, entities and financial institutions that contribute to China’s curtailing of Hong Kong’s autonomy. (12)

Senior military commanders of India and China meet on Monday to discuss ways to disengage from a monthslong standoff along their disputed border in the Himalayas. (12)

The IMF and the World Bank annual meetings kick off on Monday in a virtual setting with panellists including central bankers, chief executives and government officials. (12)

Prime minister Boris Johnson is set to announce in the House of Commons a new set of rules for local lockdowns with areas graded in three tiers: medium, high and very high risk. (12)

Brexit alks to resume on Monday ahead of key EU summit on Thursday (12) & (15)

The central body of China’s National People’s Congress will meet this week to finalize revisions of several bills, including the National Flag Law and the National Emblem Law. (13)

The IMF is set to release its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, which is expected to dissect the economic impact of lockdowns and revise its growth projections for 2021 that were outlined in June. (13)

CPI for August (13)

Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairmen Richard Clarida and Randal Quarles are scheduled to speak Wednesday and Thursday at an Institute of International Finance event that takes place on the virtual sidelines of the IMF meetings. (14) & (15)

The European Council summit is due to start on Thursday. (15)

The US Senate will hold the final hearing on the Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett on Thursday. (15)

Retail Sales for September (16)

Industrial Production for September (16)

 


 

Earnings

Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Wells Fargo will report on Wednesday (14)

Morgan Stanley reports on Thursday, followed by Bank of New York Mellon the day after. (15) & (16)

 


 

#IMF Meets With Global Economy in Historic Recession: Eco Week – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/dYDgb8hTVY pic.twitter.com/oReX9XEUGW

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

Apple 5G iPhone, China-India talks, New Zealand election — Your Week in Asiahttps://t.co/geIs3FIWf7

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) October 11, 2020

IMF meetings, Wall St bank results, US retail data https://t.co/RIbs38mQ2S

— FT Economics (@fteconomics) October 11, 2020

⚠️Here's What To Expect In The Week Ahead:

*High Volatility On Stimulus Hopes To Continue After Equity Rally

https://t.co/n4t5CcFa19$DIA $SPY $QQQ $USD $GC_F $CL_F #OOTT pic.twitter.com/wLjadfIWIy

— Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 11, 2020

A trade deal between the UK and European Union is still hanging in the balance after a weekend of intense diplomacy saw Boris Johnson call the leaders of Germany and France https://t.co/tQeuV8sWoF

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 11, 2020

 


 

Focus on Economic Calendar

Tips From Top Forecaster: U.S. Economic Calendar (w42) | CPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Productionhttps://t.co/VyUaJwsM8R

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

Schedule for Week of October 11, 2020 https://t.co/Mlp4eGj0pp The key economic reports this week are September CPI and Retail Sales.

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) October 10, 2020

 


 

Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Previous Week – w41

⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w41 ⚠

HT @zerohedge, @jsblokland, @BittelJulienhttps://t.co/5XDG4peM5K

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

 

What happened in the World Economy last Week – in charts – w41 (Bloomberg)

What happened in the world economy this week – in charts https://t.co/2bCfTmr989

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 10, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, all European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.

 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Oct. 11th)

 

#Coronavirus Can Persist for Four Weeks on Banknotes, Study Finds – Bloomberghttps://t.co/QZ3FjonjiV

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

 

1/3 – “Le lavage intensif des mains prévient environ 15% des transmissions, selon une méta-analyse de 25 essais randomisés.” https://t.co/8utw4a3oXm

— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) October 11, 2020

 

1/21. Oct 12 to Oct 18 – #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU https://t.co/lsAJmfF616 https://t.co/YgpOxMJcyyhttps://t.co/YTRsgEESvy

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience pic.twitter.com/ayBXSlDcv6

— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) October 11, 2020

 

Germany (data/a>)

#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 2,467 to 325,331: RKI – Reutershttps://t.co/gWO4C6hnXj

— Macro Brief (@macroandfinance) October 12, 2020

 

Spain (data)

#Spain's #Catalonia, Navarre tighten #COVID measures as cases rise – Reutershttps://t.co/7PLH0lYKDq

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2020

 

France (data)

Moyenne des cas #COVIDー19 détectés (Source bilan SPF by @Fabien_L)

➡️16101 cas (28,14% vs j-7)
➡️Moyenne à 16541 (40,71% vs j-7⬆️)

PS : les bilans SPF pointent les cas à réception du résultat du test alors que SIDEP prend en compte la date du prélèvement. SIDEP a 3j de retard. pic.twitter.com/mKoGA8BVPm

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 11, 2020

+ 16 101 cas positifs remontés dans SI-DEP en 24h.

Je rappelle que ce chiffre correspond aux pers majoritairement prélevées les 2/3j précédents, donc logiquement plus faible qu'hier (labos fermés le samedi/dimanche). (c'était +12 565 le 4/10 dimanche dernier) pic.twitter.com/hoj6iqAJNp

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 11, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du 11/10 (08/10 pour les tests) : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU @EricBillyFR @Le___Doc #COVID19france pic.twitter.com/FPfzGtSazQ

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 11, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (08/10). Seules les données des 05-06-07-08/10 sont disponibles pour la S41 (cette semaine). Suivre l'évolution avec les données disponibles dans les prochains jours : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU pic.twitter.com/sPwgeV2VoO

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 11, 2020

[THREAD]#MétéoCovidFrance du 11 octobre

Hospitalisations

France Métropolitaine :
482 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (402)
Moyenne 700,00 ⬆️ J-1 (688,57)

DOM :
21 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (16)
Moyenne 26,29 ⬆️ J-1 (25,57)

Graph sur toute la période et les 120 derniers jours

La suite ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/wLYzsdsZyF

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 11, 2020

Mise à jour région par région du nombre total de personne hospitalisé et en Réanimation en France Métropolitaine + DOM.

8231 Hospitalisations
[+255 ]
15 en hausse
3 stable
0 en baisse

1483 Réanimations
[+27 ]
9 en hausse
7 stable
2 en baisse pic.twitter.com/1AyzFPJ0mW

— Fabien_L (@Fabien_L) October 11, 2020

Moyenne (7j) des nouveaux cas de 70 à 89 ans
Moyenne (7j) des entrées à l'hôpital en métropole (échelle des cas décalée de 10 jours)

Si ce graphique voit juste, nous serons autour des 750 hospitalisations moyenne/jour dans 1 à 2 jours & à 1000 dans moins d'1 semaine. pic.twitter.com/V0ntrtoB2M

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 11, 2020

#France | #Toulouse and #Montpellier placed on #Covid_19 'maximum alert' – BFM TV
*Link (French): https://t.co/Tq8P7j9sZe

https://t.co/IOYpTfT2Ud

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

 

Italy (data)

Coronavirus in Italia, il bollettino di oggi 11 ottobre: 5.456 nuovi casi e 26 morti https://t.co/jBEf1PfLJA pic.twitter.com/CSvCw43VL5

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) October 11, 2020


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

 

Nombre de décès (fréquence journalière; moyenne mobile à 7 jours)

Americas

Listen to POLITICO Dispatch daily for quick, digestible analysis of the latest news on Covid-19, from the campaign trail, Capitol Hill, and more. Subscribe today.https://t.co/DPUpEFlsul pic.twitter.com/iaT714tuXL

— POLITICO (@politico) October 11, 2020

‘It does give you immunity,’ Donald Trump told Fox News on Sunday, a claim not supported by scientists, ahead of a string of planned rallies https://t.co/gQ40mmN7Ma

— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 12, 2020

White House pushes to hold next week's canceled debate https://t.co/wSOto8kaOm pic.twitter.com/0YtwNbOQ0H

— The Hill (@thehill) October 12, 2020

Nancy Pelosi says in Dear Colleague letter today that coronavirus relief negotiations are at an “impasse” until “serious issues are resolved,” particularly on funding for testing. pic.twitter.com/Ca5k5rgZQG

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig (@josephzeballos) October 11, 2020

In a Sunday letter to colleagues, @SpeakerPelosi lays out the differences in agreement between Dems & the White House on a stimulus package

"Until these serious issues are resolved, we remain at an impasse," she says pic.twitter.com/zLGcfLkgPe

— Alayna Treene (@alaynatreene) October 11, 2020

Republicans have been asking for this for months. For months, democrats have said no. https://t.co/qehOuFUqgR

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 11, 2020

Kudlow says Trump may offer larger stimulus than Democrats' proposal – Axioshttps://t.co/GHQ3kHosPU

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

FT Exclusive: The US has blocked Hong Kong residents from accessing at least two federal government websites that provide economic data https://t.co/9EPYLNVY7h pic.twitter.com/qF2GXvXHK5

— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 12, 2020

Could China & US go to #war over #Taiwan? Watch this video by @KathrinHille & @JKynge who have a fantastic amount of experience with, and knowledge, about China.https://t.co/Rys18ep2em via @FT @ftvideonews @FinancialTimes

— Demetri Sevastopulo (@Dimi) October 8, 2020

Asia

-South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, China stocks ⬆️
-Japan stocks ⬇️
-Yuan falls as much as 0.7% lower against the dollar after policy makers acted to restrain its strength by making it easier to bet against
-Oil ⬇️1%
-Gold ⬇️https://t.co/qVRt4zVdZb pic.twitter.com/wrceTJFI3i

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 12, 2020

#Coronavirus latest:
-India’s cases top 7 million
-China records its first locally transmitted infections in 17 days
-South Korea confirms 97 more cases
-Singapore and Indonesia will start a reciprocal green lane for travelhttps://t.co/k9i2t3BTnm

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 12, 2020

JUST IN: India reports 66,732 new coronavirus cases, bringing total infections to 7.12 million https://t.co/faLREJzitO pic.twitter.com/PCdWVcyaP2

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 12, 2020

China ends virus-free streak as cluster in port city emerges https://t.co/4ebxttHkqe

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 12, 2020

#China’s Xi Expected to Push Greater Bay Plan in #Shenzhen Trip – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ny3PS2HNhz

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2020

#China | #Yuan Gain May Be Capped After #PBOC Cuts Shorting Costs – Bloomberghttps://t.co/SofEHjfPRe

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2020

#Japan | #BOJ’s Swelling Asset Pile Complicates Future Exit From Stimulus – Bloomberg
*The central bank’s growing pile of assets has now reached the equivalent of 137% of GDP, according to a Bloomberg calculation based on official data
*Link: https://t.co/UMt0YT504n pic.twitter.com/BIRA1tXOaQ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2020

Japan's machinery orders extend gains as business spending stabilises https://t.co/HEXd1FiIlo pic.twitter.com/DIk9gaivC8

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 12, 2020

*#JAPAN, #UK TO SIGN #TRADE AGREEMENT ON OCT. 23: KYODO

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2020

Worsening Sino-U.S. ties huge risk to China's financial network – PBOC vice head https://t.co/YlGRT0ubSV pic.twitter.com/0ywr4tVAoV

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 12, 2020

Europe

BOE asks commercial banks for views on negative interest rates
ECB doubters rebuff green loan proposal despite Lagarde interest
UK risks losing its most robot-proof jobs
Here's a rundown of your top economic news today https://t.co/N1ZCGwFDes

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 12, 2020

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (October 12th)

*Focus on #Germany, #Spain, #France and #Italy

HT @FLAHAULT, @macroandfinance, @starjoin, @gforestier, @Fabien_L, @Corrierehttps://t.co/oEMFvms7Uy

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2020

In Europe, governments in several countries including the U.K., Italy, Spain and the Czech Republic are prepared to tighten restrictions as infections and hospital admissions rose – Bloomberghttps://t.co/6pcPPpNXki

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

#FRANCE'S PRIME MINISTER JEAN CASTEX SPEAKS ON FRANCE INFO RADIO – BBG
*FRANCE'S CASTEX: VIRUS SECOND WAVE IS 'VERY STRONG

*PM CASTEX: WE COULD TAKE STRICTER MEASURES ON COVID IF THE SITUATION CONTINUES TO WORSEN, NO OPTIONS RULED OUT – RTRS

https://t.co/mcUoYUwXc3

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2020

Boris Johnson is set to step up efforts to contain the spread of coronavirus on Monday, announcing a new tiered system of alert levels that would see millions of Britons subject to more stringent curbs on their everyday lives https://t.co/YQ9OaqunAv

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 11, 2020

A trade deal between the UK and European Union is still hanging in the balance after a weekend of intense diplomacy saw Boris Johnson call the leaders of Germany and France https://t.co/tQeuV8sWoF

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 11, 2020

Top Official Signals #ECB Would Allow Inflation to Overshoot – WSJhttps://t.co/we5DSkS8pw

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

Inflation situation in euro area won’t improve this year and needs to be assessed in medium-term horizon. ECB Governing Council member and Slovak central bank chief Peter Kazimir says in interview for Hospodarske Noviny daily published online.

https://t.co/zxTFxBqLNE

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

Letter from Sam Woods ‘Information request: Operational readiness for a zero or negative Bank Rate’ – BOEhttps://t.co/IRgIw3xgCQ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2020

TURKISH CENTRAL BANK SAYS RAISES REMUNERATION RATE APPLIED TO LIRA REQUIRED RESERVES TO 7% FROM 5% – RTRS

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2020

EU targets Big #Tech with ‘hit list’ facing tougher rules – FThttps://t.co/5dfknItcAf

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2020

The Danish government’s plan to fund early retirement for some workers by introducing an extra tax on the financial industry has gained enough support among opposition parties to be turned into law next year https://t.co/3lzS2S2h7k

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 12, 2020

Both speculators and institutional accounts now hold modest net long positions in 10-year Treasury futures, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — the smallest gap in three years – Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/PmvRNUQiPX

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2020

As promised, here is my newest report:

A Major update on the most important Themes, Signals and Ideas I'm watching. Have a great week!

Halfway There and Back Again: Thoughts on Year-End and 2021

New from Macro Charts blog:https://t.co/GrIgDURsNd pic.twitter.com/eNUmtRa7Nz

— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) October 12, 2020

Monetary & fiscal disorder in one chart.

Currency debasement written all over it. pic.twitter.com/RE63EkTxlz

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 12, 2020

The global economy has managed only a fragile recovery from coronavirus, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index https://t.co/dj2ODmeoc3 pic.twitter.com/ffkvHe5OnE

— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 12, 2020

No wonder #MMT is getting more and more followers all over the world. Will found a receptive audience even in #Italy. The more Italy owes, the less it costs, Chart by DB highlights. While Italy's debt-to-GDP to hit fresh All-Time High this year, 10y yields have hit All-Time Low. pic.twitter.com/rCqf0V1a5J

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 12, 2020