Daily Archives: October 11, 2020


According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, all European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.


Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Oct. 10th)


European Leaders Impose Targeted Restrictions in New Virus Surge – Bloomberghttps://t.co/7mOb7a65HE

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 10, 2020


A 4Q GDP Contraction Will Become Soon the Base Case Scenario In Several European Countrieshttps://t.co/IOYpTfT2Ud

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 10, 2020


1/21. Oct 11 to Oct 17 – #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU https://t.co/lsAJmfF616 https://t.co/YgpOxMJcyyhttps://t.co/YTRsgEESvy

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience pic.twitter.com/9brMqKMabt

— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) October 10, 2020


Germany (data)

#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 3,483 to 322,864 – RKI – Reutershttps://t.co/UaxqXxLL6E

— Macro Brief (@macroandfinance) October 11, 2020


Spain (data)

Datos de fallecidos a 09/10:
1⃣ Fallecidos por CCAA en 14 días por 100.000 habitantes
2⃣ Fallecidos en 14 días en valor absoluto
3⃣ Fallecidos semanales

Últ. 14 días: 124,7 fallecidos/día

*Los fallecidos tardan hasta 7 días en incluirse. En días recientes suele aumentar. pic.twitter.com/ai2cCgR9RV

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) October 10, 2020

Spanish PM urges end to COVID feud as far-right protests – Reutershttps://t.co/iPAwmvswrI

— Macro Brief (@macroandfinance) October 11, 2020


France (data)

*Positivity Rate: 11.0% (v 10.4% prior).
*Santé Publique France: https://t.co/bZLT3Rguuz pic.twitter.com/RWchmQxFTw

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 10, 2020

Moyenne des cas #COVIDー19 détectés (Source bilan SPF by @Fabien_L)

➡️26896 cas (58,47% vs j-7)
➡️Moyenne à 16035 (38,54% vs j-7⬆️)

PS : les bilans SPF pointent les cas à réception du résultat du test alors que SIDEP prend en compte la date du prélèvement. SIDEP a 3j de retard pic.twitter.com/Om88RZwWtg

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 10, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du 10/10 (07/10 pour les tests) : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU @EricBillyFR @Le___Doc #COVID19france pic.twitter.com/zv0EnMoZKt

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 10, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (07/10). Seules les données des 05-06-07/10 sont disponibles pour la S41 (cette semaine). Suivre l'évolution avec les données disponibles dans les prochains jours : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU pic.twitter.com/vFoT2Blo6x

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 10, 2020

[THREAD]#MétéoCovidFrance du 10 octobre


France Métropolitaine :
665 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (498)
Moyenne 688,57 ⬆️ J-1 (664,71)

29 entrées ⬇️ J-7 (34)
Moyenne 25,57 ⬇️ J-1 (26,29)

Graph sur toute la période et les 120 derniers jours

La suite ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/f3P9YyCThb

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 10, 2020

Mise à jour région par région du nombre total de personne hospitalisé et en Réanimation en France Métropolitaine + DOM.

7976 Hospitalisations
[+133 ]
12 en hausse
0 stable
6 en baisse

1456 Réanimations
[+17 ]
7 en hausse
5 stable
6 en baisse pic.twitter.com/z0jPhu4kg2

— Fabien_L (@Fabien_L) October 10, 2020

Moyenne (7j) des nouveaux cas de 70 à 89 ans
Moyenne (7j) des entrées à l'hôpital en métropole (échelle des cas décalée de 10 jours)

Si ce graphique voit juste, nous serons autour des 750 hospitalisations moyenne par jour dans 2 à 4 jours pic.twitter.com/7Mc97mJ30N

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 10, 2020


Italy (data)

#Italy’s new cases ⬆ for a 5th day, reaching 5,724, the most since late March – Bloomberg
*That’s well above the previous 7-day average of 3,409. *Daily testing hit a new record and the positivity rate kept climbing to 4.3%, the highest since April.https://t.co/plRb1iuMGt

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 10, 2020

Coronavirus in Italia, il bollettino di oggi 10 ottobre: 5.724 nuovi casi e 29 morti https://t.co/p6Cvu5cNR0 pic.twitter.com/EVH0nvDksX

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) October 10, 2020


Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)

*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).


Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)


Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)


Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)


Nombre de décès (fréquence journalière; moyenne mobile à 7 jours)

S&P EPS will be unchanged from 2018 until at least the end of 2021: three years of no profit growth pic.twitter.com/XqMZq0KB96

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 11, 2020

Biden Will Hike The Top Capital Gains Tax Rate To 39.6%: What That Means For Markets https://t.co/Ve5EpYv07d

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 10, 2020

My guess is that JP estimates look very optimistic:

1/ It would be the largest increase in U.S. history (from 23.8% to 39.6%)

2/ Top earners now hold more stocks than ever.

3/ Valuations aren't attractive.https://t.co/aBcgCfgVh2

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

#Gold vs #realyields – levels. pic.twitter.com/yNI4N1inJl

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) October 11, 2020

Here's the set up.

ZERO big gold discoveries in the last 3 years.

Then add:

-Deficits exploding
-Monetary dilution up the wazoo
-Historic debt imbalances everywhere

This has to be the largest demand-supply mismatch in the history of gold.

h/t @crescatkevin pic.twitter.com/WOH9WKzjtf

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 10, 2020


Pelosi rejects increased US stimulus offer – FThttps://t.co/ephyjkOZhH

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 10, 2020

Trump's stimulus proposal draws opposition from congressional Democrats and Republicans https://t.co/eF2F1YxDm3 pic.twitter.com/kT0SCzE54K

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 10, 2020

Pelosi Calls Trump Plan ‘One Step Forward, Two Steps Back’ – Bloomberghttps://t.co/udqS6RjxaH

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 10, 2020

JPMorgan estimates there could be tax-related equity selling of about $200 billion around a prospective increase in the capital gains rate, impacting U.S. stocks by about 5% — similar to what was seen in late 1986 and 2012 – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/nN9Ow9cUCo pic.twitter.com/I5YSxmnM7X

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

President Trump is no longer considered a coronavirus transmission risk to others, his physician says https://t.co/nKrrnW6On5

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 11, 2020

Feds may target #Google’s #Chrome browser for breakup – Politicohttps://t.co/nUgszLbw3F

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

Inside the US campaign to cut #China out of the tech supply chain – Nikkei
*#Apple, #Google and others shift production to prepare for 'decoupled' global market
*Link: https://t.co/ARSHpjPBqM pic.twitter.com/cBD72GROEZ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020


India closes in on US as coronavirus cases cross 7-million mark https://t.co/46aw6VCJYI

— SCMP News (@SCMPNews) October 11, 2020

Asian emerging markets must brace for coming wave of ratings downgrades – and debt defaults – CNBChttps://t.co/rQJid52mnS

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

The Philippines and China foreign ministers reaffirmed the “continuing vitality” of their countries’ relations amid recent tensions in the South China Sea https://t.co/OxsFHu1zhT

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 11, 2020

North Korea displayed what appeared to be its largest-ever intercontinental ballistic missile during a nighttime military parade in Pyongyang on Saturday, but it was not immediately clear if the missile would work or was for show.https://t.co/g1uoKDeWAv

— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 11, 2020

North Korea unlikely to fire new 'monster' ICBM before US election.https://t.co/oQCUSBAerV

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) October 11, 2020


#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (October 11th)

*Focus on #Germany, #Spain, #France and #Italy

HT @FLAHAULT, @macroandfinance, @ngbpadel2, @starjoin, @gforestier, @Fabien_L, @Corrierehttps://t.co/HAW7xqW57t

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

Here’s the latest on the coronavirus pandemic https://t.co/uHm7mRqO7Z

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 10, 2020

Seven in 10 Britons Support Local Lockdowns: Ipsos MORI Survey – Bloomberghttps://t.co/NZZNErq1h4

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2020

A 4Q GDP Contraction Will Become Soon the Base Case Scenario In Several European Countrieshttps://t.co/IOYpTfT2Ud

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 10, 2020

The end of the V-shaped recovery? Economists are beginning to lower their Q4 forecasts due to resurgence in Covid-19 cases. Increased govt restrictions could lead to a contraction in Eurozone GDP in Q4 even in the case that national lockdown measures are avoided, RBC says. pic.twitter.com/FIOT47pys9

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 11, 2020

The Italian economy will contract 10% in 2020 and make a partial recovery next year with growth of 4.8%, Confindustria says https://t.co/YpYABwEcPD

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 10, 2020

UK urges businesses to prepare for end of Brexit transition https://t.co/mIT3DzgOCa pic.twitter.com/GHQudBL5Vt

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 11, 2020

Lithuanians are voting in a general election that’s shaping up to be the most unpredictable in years https://t.co/f2UrUg5NU9

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 11, 2020

#BOC #BOE #BOJ #ECB #FED | Latest data confirmed #G7 CBs combined balance sheet (BS) kept climbing in September (but at slowest pace since February 2020).
*#G7 CBs combined BS has grown by more than $7T since February. pic.twitter.com/MJqHLb6IZK

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 5, 2020

Velocity of money pic.twitter.com/ZQvvKnk6BU

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 5, 2020

US 31 trillion (yes trillion) in negative real-yielding #debt in one chart… pic.twitter.com/6EPK157gTk

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) October 9, 2020

Gold vs 10Y real rates – an update pic.twitter.com/VLd9yOiVxo

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 10, 2020

#Gold vs #realyields – levels. pic.twitter.com/yNI4N1inJl

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) October 11, 2020

#Gold | Global holdings in bullion-backed #ETFs have never been bigger. The worldwide total expanded in Aug. and Sep. even as prices backtracked, and it hit a fresh record on Monday, according to preliminary data from Bloomberg. pic.twitter.com/Iouv3aHrjY

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 6, 2020

Rising economic surprises & EPS upgrades generally move together. With the peak in global economic momentum firmly behind us now following a record move to 116 (4.3 standard deviations), we should be prepared for a 3-6 month window of negative economic surprises & EPS downgrades. pic.twitter.com/Wvc7YBBKVg

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) October 6, 2020

This chart neatly shows that US household savings got a massive boost in April because of government transfer payments, but also that they have been coming down since. With new #stimulus postponed consumer spending will likely slow if not turn negative. pic.twitter.com/YqmDW3lio6

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) October 8, 2020

An Avalanche Of Bankruptcies Is Coming In The U.S.https://t.co/xmq1Io3gy6

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 8, 2020

Climate change facts: Chinese CO2 emissions are more than double those of the US, and greater than US and EU combined. pic.twitter.com/ZpJCoPaUjB

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 6, 2020

U.S. Economy

Tuesday (October 12th)

CPI for September – Bloomberg consensus: 0.2%(e) v 0.4% prior
Several proxies showed that retail gasoline prices were broadly stable in September. Using seasonal adjustment, it would translate into a slight decline.


Friday (October 16th)

Retail Sales for September – Bloomberg consensus MoM: +0.8%(e) v +0.6% prior
Once again, auto sales are expected to support the headline. According to Wards data, U.S. New vehicle sales increased by 7.6% MoM, reaching 16.34M SAAR in September (7-month high).


U.S. New Vehicle Sales Rose to 7-Month High in September, Getting Close to Pre-Crisis Levelhttps://t.co/clMy3iSpSl

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2020


Industrial Production for September – Bloomberg consensus MoM: +0.6%(e) v +0.4% prior
“Utilities” production (10.42% of the index) is likely to drop as hot August temperatures normalized downward in September (less demand for air conditioning) while multiple power outages in California also weighted negatively.


On the positive side, “Mining” production (14.24% of the index) should rebound after storm-related curtailments affected oil and gas-related activities in August.