Daily Archives: October 10, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, all European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.

 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Oct. 9th)

 

#Covid_19: PM to detail new measures to MPs on Monday – BBChttps://t.co/PZIKpG5j1o

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 10, 2020

1/2 – “Coïncidence ou non, des villes avec un retour massif [du travail] en présentiel – selon une étude par Morgan Stanley datant du 30 septembre, 86 % des employés en Ile-de-France et 68 % à Madrid – connaissent une flambée de l’incidence de #covid19.” https://t.co/TRiqVcz63W

— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) October 9, 2020

 

1/21. Oct 10 to Oct 16 – #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU https://t.co/lsAJmfF616 https://t.co/YgpOxMJcyyhttps://t.co/YTRsgEESvy

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience pic.twitter.com/KgxQUBDs4O

— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) October 9, 2020


 

Germany (data)

#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 4,721 to 319,381 – RKI pic.twitter.com/PLmoVSwaJz

— Macro Brief (@macroandfinance) October 10, 2020

 

Spain (data)

Datos por comunidades 09/10/2020:

⚠️Hoy hay 12.788 nuevos positivos.

– Evolución IA= Incidencia acumulada (indica cuantos casos, proporcional a 100.000 hab)
– Razón de tasas
– Situación global y número de casos, compara con IA de 7 y 14 días

Sigue hilo pic.twitter.com/X8KdFQTjqb

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) October 9, 2020

➡️Gráficas de casos notificados por día y acumulados en 14 y 7 días.

Hoy hay 12.788 casos nuevos. El viernes pasado fueron 11.325. Hace 2 viernes fueron 12.209. Hace 3 viernes 14.389. pic.twitter.com/csnBrF62FB

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) October 9, 2020

 

France (data)

Moyenne des cas #COVIDー19 détectés (Source bilan SPF by @Fabien_L)

➡️20339 cas (67,43% vs j-7)
➡️ Moyenne à 14618 (32,72% vs j-7)

PS : les bilans SPF pointent les cas à réception du résultat du test alors que SIDEP prend en compte la date du prélèvement. SIDEP a 3j de retard. pic.twitter.com/2iXsbCnI1F

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 9, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du 09/10 (06/10 pour les tests) : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU @EricBillyFR @Le___Doc #COVID19france pic.twitter.com/lWu0CUA1kU

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 9, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (06/10). Seules les données des 05-06/10 sont disponibles pour la S41 (cette semaine). Suivre l'évolution avec les données disponibles dans les prochains jours : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU pic.twitter.com/baEVA15wKC

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 9, 2020

[THREAD]#MétéoCovidFrance du 09 octobre

Hospitalisations

France Métropolitaine :
820 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (678)
Moyenne 664,71 ⬆️ J-1 (644,43)

DOM :
28 entrées ⬇️ J-7 (43)
Moyenne 26,29 ⬇️ J-1 (28,43)

Graph sur toute la période et les 120 derniers jours

La suite ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/Zx0qpd9Ecs

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 9, 2020

Mise à jour région par région du nombre total de personne hospitalisé et en Réanimation en France Métropolitaine + DOM.

7843 Hospitalisations
[+240 ]
12 en hausse
1 stable
5 en baisse

1439 Réanimations
[+21 ]
11 en hausse
1 stable
6 en baisse pic.twitter.com/ufLabzI9F9

— Fabien_L (@Fabien_L) October 9, 2020

Moyenne (7j) des nouveaux cas de 70 à 89 ans
Moyenne (7j) des entrées à l'hôpital (échelle des cas décalée de 10 jours)

Si ce graphique voit juste, nous serons autour des 750 hospitalisations moyenne par jour dans 5 jours pic.twitter.com/7qahH1DRfn

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 9, 2020

 

Italy (data)

Coronavirus in Italia, il bollettino di oggi 9 ottobre: 5.372 nuovi casi e 28 morti https://t.co/G3P0aS9C0D

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) October 9, 2020


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

 

Nombre de décès (fréquence journalière; moyenne mobile à 7 jours)

Sky is the limit, folks…

“Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste”

– Jay Powell pic.twitter.com/vmCFgN245n

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 9, 2020

That persistently high VIX put/call ratio has given us the highest reading I've ever seen in the 21 dma pic.twitter.com/nsXNcGOQng

— Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) October 10, 2020

Fed purchases of bonds and ETFs pic.twitter.com/UKVXPXDF49

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 9, 2020

Gold vs 10Y real rates – an update pic.twitter.com/VLd9yOiVxo

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 10, 2020

Bond Speculators remain stubbornly Short one of the largest positions in history.

Extreme Bond AND Dollar positioning could be a big source of instability here – impacting all risk assets.

And critically, Stocks trade ok for now, but key Macro catalysts remain FAR from certain. pic.twitter.com/OaHTY3D0iz

— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) October 10, 2020

Americas

U.S. stocks rose on Friday and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq registered their biggest weekly percentage gains since July as optimism over more federal fiscal aid grew. More here: https://t.co/moap9DU2ai pic.twitter.com/ePue0m1Ru1

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 10, 2020

#Trump raises coronavirus stimulus offer to $1.8 trillion, about $400 billion less than Dems’ bill – CNBChttps://t.co/lQQ6Dumo81

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 9, 2020

We'll see if Democrats are overconfident and ready to a sign a deal Trump needs to push markets higher and boost his chances of being re-elected.https://t.co/LiW9bh7xJk

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 9, 2020

#Trump | Do not forget that a few days before the election, 3Q GDP figures could show a jump of more 30% QoQ Annualized.https://t.co/mIREvOByVu

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 9, 2020

— THE WHITE HOUSE’S top-line number is $1.8 trillion. The line the GOP can’t cross is $2 trillion. All depends on the details, but this is now significantly higher than the GOP’s previous top line, which was $1.5 trillion.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 9, 2020

SCOOP: Senate GOP sources tell me and @LJMoynihan latest stimulus proposal being floated by @larry_kudlow @stevenmnuchin1 @realDonaldTrump @SpeakerPelosi still faces stiff resistance in GOP senate and as of now @senatemajldr does not have the votes for a $1.8 trillion package

— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) October 9, 2020

Meanwhile, two sources close to Senate leadership said Trump is desperate, has zero leverage to push them to support a bill crafted by Pelosi & congressional Republicans aren’t inclined to wrap themselves any tighter to a sinking ship

w/ @jonathanvswan

— Alayna Treene (@alaynatreene) October 9, 2020

#Trump Says He Now Wants Bigger Stimulus Than Democrats Offering – Bloomberghttps://t.co/SisuEgjd0t

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 10, 2020

Biggest U.S. Banks Keep Assets at Safest Level in 35 Years – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/mu8UB8wt3v pic.twitter.com/XVCV58a9Vi

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 10, 2020

Asia

Japan August machinery orders seen falling as coronavirus hits investment: Reuters poll https://t.co/SNwDW0t8AD pic.twitter.com/iZAJytM8Av

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 10, 2020

China will maintain “normal” monetary policy for as long as possible, according to the People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang https://t.co/97d4d9nWY1

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 10, 2020

India’s central bank and the federal government have urged the nation’s Supreme Court to reject pleas by borrowers to extend a loan repayment holiday, sources say https://t.co/bDftBUKfEB

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 10, 2020

North Korea staged a predawn military parade that appeared to be its biggest in two years https://t.co/JpdpnVU59m

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 10, 2020

China has deployed tens of thousands of soldiers on India’s Northern border, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said https://t.co/KtDak2AWtE

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 10, 2020

Europe

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (October 10th)

*Focus on #Germany, #Spain, #France and #Italy

HT @FLAHAULT, @macroandfinance, @ngbpadel2, @starjoin, @gforestier, @Fabien_L, @Corrierehttps://t.co/tBXJuFrMWl

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 10, 2020

#Europe’s Record Cash Pile Set to Prime Next Stage of Bond Rally – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/BtCATlAymf pic.twitter.com/OZxXPHp0oe

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 10, 2020

Britain and the EU will continue discussions and pursue smaller agreements if wider trade talks fail next week https://t.co/QPYIAWI5bF

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 10, 2020

Spain is prepared to extend its furlough program beyond January https://t.co/ybrdkWh5ak

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 10, 2020

As I expected, most of European countries kept implementing restrictive measures over the past few weeks. Unfortunately, worst is probably coming with potential local lockdowns (as we saw in Madrid) in a context where latest statistics confirm that the Covid-19 is spreading quickly.

 

In France, earlier this week, the Local reported “the metropole areas of Lille, Lyon, Grenoble and Saint-Etienne have joined Paris and its suburbs and the Aix-Marseille area on maximum alert.” It added “the new designations will take place from Saturday morning and will see the closure of all bars in those areas, although restaurants can remain open under strict new conditions.” In addition, two other areas, namely Toulouse and Montpellier, were described as “worrying” by Health minister Olivier Véran, in his weekly briefing on Thursday evening. The ministry reported more than 20,000 new infections on Friday (highest since methodology changed in May and tests increased significantly) but most importantly, new cases for people aged above 69, a good leading indicator to forecast hospitalizations, kept increasing sharply.

 

Moyenne (7j) des nouveaux cas de 70 à 89 ans
Moyenne (7j) des entrées à l'hôpital (échelle des cas décalée de 10 jours)

Si ce graphique voit juste, nous serons autour des 750 hospitalisations moyenne par jour dans 5 jours pic.twitter.com/7qahH1DRfn

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 9, 2020

 

In Spain, Bloomberg highlighted that “the Madrid region extended travel restrictions Saturday to four communities that hadn’t been covered by the national government’s state of emergency for the capital the day before. The order forbids inhabitants of those zones to leave except for essential activities such as traveling to work, school or visiting a doctor.” Authories moved quickly ahead of a holiday weekend, with Spaniards celebrating their national day on Monday.

 

In Germany, AP noted Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday held talks with the mayors of Germany’s 11 biggest cities. Merkel said she and the mayors “have agreed on measures to slow the spread of the virus by ensuring that social distancing and hygiene rules are respected and contact tracing can continue — despite the growing number of infections Germany is now experiencing.

 

Elsewhere, Bloomberg (citing Dutch news agency ANP) underlined “the Netherlands reported 6,504 cases, a daily record and rising above 6,000 for the first time“. In this context, the Dutch government is meeting Sunday to discuss stricter measures to combat the spreading of the virus. Yet, the Daily Mail already flagged that “government warned it would be forced to impose tighter restrictions by the end of the weekend if infections did not start to drop.

 

Wear a mask, or face lockdown: Dutch PM gives ultimatum as Holland records 6,500 Covid cases https://t.co/qYiPfZcRJi

— Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline) October 10, 2020

 

In the U.K., ministers are mulling new restrictions in areas of northern England where the coronavirus is spreading fastest. BBC reported that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is likely to announce a three-tier local lockdown system as soon as Monday.

 

As a result, I expect several EU countries to experience a GDP decline in 4Q especially those who already faced a contraction in the services sector in September, such as France and Spain. The deterioration seen in Markit PMIs is also coherent with high frequency data that I’m looking for in the hospitality sector, which confirmed a downturn since mid-August. Therefore, I think that the Bloomberg consensus for 4Q GDP looks very optimistic for several European countries including France (+1.5%) and Spain (+2.6%) and will probably turn negative before year-end.