Daily Archives: October 5, 2020

Summary Key Macro Events

Brexit: EU’s chief negotiator to hold talks with Merkel on Monday. (5)

ISM Services for September (5)

The second meeting of the so-called Quad will take place in Tokyo, with the foreign ministers of Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. meeting in person. (6)

While in Tokyo, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will be Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s first high-level diplomatic visitor. (6)

Treasurer Josh Frydenburg will submit Australia’s federal budget to parliament on Tuesday, after a five-month delay. (6)

The Reserve Bank of Australia is broadly expected to keep its rates on hold at 0.25 per cent at its meeting on Tuesday. (6)

UK prime minister Boris Johnson will have a chance to stabilise his premiership at the Conservative annual conference, which will be a virtual event due to the ban on social gatherings. (6)

Investors will be expecting some clarity from the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s mid-September meeting on monetary policy, which will be published on Wednesday. (7)

Vice-president Mike Pence will face Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in a debate on Wednesday. (7)

Minutes of the ECB’s September meeting will be published Thursday. (8)

UK gross domestic product, trade and industrial product details are due on Friday. (9)

 


 

Workers of World Unite in Crisis Gloom for Their Jobs: Eco Week – Bloomberg
*Fed, ECB set to publish minutes of latest policy meetings.
*Link: https://t.co/LrSrQVJSqt pic.twitter.com/7hRHajEYsj

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 4, 2020

Your Week in Asia
— Pompeo visits Japan
— Indonesia labor strikes
— BTS agency IPOhttps://t.co/AZPv0Y5HdN

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) October 4, 2020

Trump’s prognosis, PMI data, Johnson seeks party unity https://t.co/iAokhZwUqF

— FT Economics (@fteconomics) October 4, 2020

Trump's health and fiscal stimulus fight will steer the markets in the week ahead https://t.co/PuDeEf1iXx pic.twitter.com/MQu4GJgGCp

— Patti Domm (@pattidomm) October 2, 2020

MARKETS WEEK AHEAD:

– TRUMP'S HEALTH CONDITION TO DRIVE SENTIMENT
– FISCAL STIMULUS TALKS CONTINUE
– FED CHAIR POWELL SPEECH

⚠️ @JESSECOHENINV BREAKS DOWN WHAT TO WATCH ON WALL STREET THIS WEEK$DIA $SPY $QQQ $VIX pic.twitter.com/gLW6USIp3E

— Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 4, 2020

#Brexit Negotiators Brace for a Summit Showdown as Talks Lurch On – Bloomberghttps://t.co/dEjFKVm86v

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 5, 2020

Eurozone Deflation Will Push #ECB To Act As Soon As Decemberhttps://t.co/5dfjZC90RC

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 3, 2020

 


 

Focus on Economic Calendar

Schedule for Week of October 4, 2020 https://t.co/VIMmVNqVfz Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on the Economic Outlook on Tuesday.

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) October 3, 2020

In this week’s economic news, U.S. service-sector activity is expected to have expanded as businesses reopened https://t.co/tNyWpDqhy7

— Real Time Economics (@WSJecon) October 4, 2020

 


 

Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Previous Week – w40

⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w40 ⚠ https://t.co/j4wn4vvfHy

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 4, 2020

 

What happened in the World Economy last Week – in charts – w40 (Bloomberg)

The week in the global economy – in charts https://t.co/6uY93z5Buh

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 3, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, all European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.

 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Oct. 4th)

 

1/21. Oct 05 to Oct 11 – #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU https://t.co/lsAJmfF616 https://t.co/YgpOxMJcyyhttps://t.co/YTRsgEESvy

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience pic.twitter.com/8XJ0nqaJrd

— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) October 4, 2020

 

Germany (data)

RKI: Germany Reports 300619 Confirmed Covid-19 Cases (+1382)
-9534 Covid-19 Deaths (+5)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 5, 2020

 

Spain (data)

Esto me encaja bastante bien con números muy bajos de positivos que hemos recibido el martes y sobre todo el jueves de Cataluña (por debajo del volumen habituales en la situación actual) pic.twitter.com/9Tls8m2aCI

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) October 4, 2020

 

France (data)

Moyenne des cas #COVIDー19 détectés (Source bilan SPF by @Fabien_L)

⬆️12565 cas (+12,96% vs j-7)
⬆️Moyenne à 11517 (-7,15%⬆️)

PS : les bilans SPF pointent les cas à réception du résultat du test alors que SIDEP prend en compte la date du prélèvement. SIDEP a 3j de retard. pic.twitter.com/K7Djy72noK

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 4, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du 04/10 (01/10 pour les tests) : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU @EricBillyFR @Le___Doc #COVID19france pic.twitter.com/O859PyDvZO

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 4, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (01/10). Seules les données des 28-29-30/09 01/10 sont disponibles pour la S40 (cette semaine). Suivre l'évolution avec les données disponibles dans les prochains jours : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU pic.twitter.com/tlBaTGXeBl

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 4, 2020

[THREAD]#MétéoCovidFrance du 04 octobre

Hospitalisations

France Métropolitaine :
402 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (233)
Moyenne 578,29 ⬆️ J-1 (554,14)

DOM :
16 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (8)
Moyenne 30,86 ⬆️ J-1 (29,71)

Graph sur toute la période et les 120 derniers jours

La suite ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/ZW01MxzTWE

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 4, 2020

Mise à jour région par région du nombre total de personne hospitalisé et en Réanimation en France Métropolitaine + DOM.

6964 Hospitalisations
[+224 ]
15 en hausse
2 stable
1 en baisse

1335 Réanimations
[+46 ]
12 en hausse
4 stable
2 en baisse pic.twitter.com/aHaoHANs4r

— Fabien_L (@Fabien_L) October 4, 2020

#France to Close Paris Bars as #Covid_19 Cases Spike, AFP Says – Bloomberghttps://t.co/FlVxgDOvu5

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 5, 2020

 

Italy (data)

Il bollettino di oggi: 2.578 nuovi casi e 18 morti. Boom Campania. Ma 26mila tamponi in meno https://t.co/dRix9Nm0JJ

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) October 4, 2020


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Americas

U.S. stock futures rise on Trump's health progress https://t.co/7BfRSy3irh pic.twitter.com/UJyyQk4imU

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 5, 2020

Simultaneous outbreaks of flu and #COVID19 could drain the state's health care resources.

That's why it is crucial that Californians take the proper precautions to protect themselves and their families by getting a flu shot. #FightFluTogether pic.twitter.com/1N15YnaVlf

— Office of the Governor of California (@CAgovernor) October 4, 2020

#NYC Mayor De Blasio says schools, non-essential businesses in 9 zipcodes to close due to spike in coronavirus cases – MarketWatchhttps://t.co/Tp07Xf1Req

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 5, 2020

pic.twitter.com/0Bm9W2u1x7

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 4, 2020

U.S. House Speaker Pelosi says making progress on coronavirus relief legislation – Reutershttps://t.co/AF2GK82gMb

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 5, 2020

The U.S. government has taken an equity stake in a battery-metals company in a move that undercuts dependence on China for a key material used in electric vehicles https://t.co/hYg8eDFRRO

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 5, 2020

Asia

-Australia stocks rise more than 2%
-Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea stocks ⬆️
-U.S. futures ⬆️
-Oil ⬆️ to $37.98 a barrelhttps://t.co/h7ONWrA4aa pic.twitter.com/eJVOAwUgwZ

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 5, 2020

BOJ's Kuroda warns pandemic to keep economic uncertainty 'very high' https://t.co/x8iXRlPhT7 pic.twitter.com/8z1V9kRasI

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 5, 2020

SMIC Says U.S. Is Placing Export Restrictions on Suppliers – Bloomberghttps://t.co/uQutEWi6ZU

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 5, 2020

Indian Prime Minister Modi's key economic reforms are stalling during the nation’s worst crisis in decades https://t.co/TNTztP1rAw

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 5, 2020

Singapore’s budget will likely feel the virus strain for a number of years, the deputy prime minister says https://t.co/2rFZm0vWSj

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 5, 2020

Europe

Covid hastens an overdue reckoning for the UK economy
ECB has a messaging problem as Lagarde-Lane dynamic muddies view
Spain’s toxic politics, health woes have got Merkel worried
Here's a rundown of your top economic news today https://t.co/vYttvP3u2m

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 5, 2020

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (October 5th)

*Focus on #Germany, #Spain, #France and #Italy

HT @FLAHAULT, @LiveSquawk, @ngbpadel2, @starjoin, @gforestier, @Fabien_L, @Corrierehttps://t.co/p5jqivZPmc

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 5, 2020

#France to Close Paris Bars as #Covid_19 Cases Spike, AFP Says – Bloomberghttps://t.co/FlVxgDOvu5

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 5, 2020

#SPAIN SEPT SERVICES PMI: 42.4 V 46.4E (2nd straight contraction and lowest since May 2020)
– Composite PMI: 44.3 v 47.7e (2nd straight contraction)
*Markit: Rising #COVID-19 infections served to undermine activity in the services sector.
*Link: https://t.co/NXFhi48YPv pic.twitter.com/atTqbTKEdV

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 5, 2020

The German economy is gaining strength while many other European economies show little sign of life https://t.co/kngxV1zFBx

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 5, 2020

UK's Sunak warns of economic and social impact of lockdowns: The Sun https://t.co/aB6xrez9rn pic.twitter.com/clHT9GeT18

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 5, 2020

#Brexit Negotiators Brace for a Summit Showdown as Talks Lurch On – Bloomberghttps://t.co/dEjFKVm86v

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 5, 2020

UK car sales fall for a second straight month, erasing hopes of a quick recovery https://t.co/aN0zWkKoUH

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 5, 2020

#BOC #BOE #BOJ #ECB #FED | Latest data confirmed #G7 CBs combined balance sheet (BS) kept climbing in September (but at slowest pace since February 2020).
*#G7 CBs combined BS has grown by more than $7T since February. pic.twitter.com/MJqHLb6IZK

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 5, 2020

The number of unemployed Americans actively searching for work for at least 27 weeks jumped 781K in Sep. to 2.4M – Bloomberg
*This group of so-called long-term unemployed helped boost the median duration of joblessness to 17.8 weeks, the highest since 2012. pic.twitter.com/PaLoVpt24B

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 5, 2020

Interesting chart from J.P. Morgan: Rising odds of a #Biden win coincides with Emerging Asia outperformance. #Trump #USElections2020 pic.twitter.com/DOYlM3loEa

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) October 5, 2020

Great chart from Morgan Stanley, showing that in 2016 election uncertainty kept the US 10-year Treasury #yield low until the it spiked once the result came in.

2020 looks very much like 2016 so far… pic.twitter.com/Rxd358KYaX

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) October 5, 2020

#Credit always wins the "who is right" game. pic.twitter.com/nvK8Y5tZYB

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) October 5, 2020