Daily Archives: October 3, 2020

As I expected, Eurozone HICP contracted more than expected in September. Flash estimate showed a decline of 0.3% YoY. If confirmed, it will be the second consecutive drop and the the largest decline since April 2016.

 

 

Even if this drop can be partly explained by downward pressures in energy (-8.2% YoY v -7.8% YoY in August), it also reflected a sharp slowdown in core inflation (ex food and energy), which increased by only 0.2% YoY (the slowest pace ever recorded).

 

 

 

This trend can be mainly explained by a temporary cut in German VAT and a persistent weakness in hospitality sector that have affected transportation prices such as airfares and also hotels/restaurants. In a context where this situation is likely to persist and oil prices kept declining recently, Eurozone HICP should remain in negative territory or close to 0% until at least year-end (confirming that the coronavirus shock has been deflationary). Therefore, as flagged by Frederik Ducrozet, latest ECB forecasts (released in September) already look optimistic.

 

Now on headline inflation, ECB staff projections had +0.1% in Q3-20 (vs -0.02% realised) and -0.2% in Q4, which is likely to be revised lower as well. pic.twitter.com/QZKmwgiM1y

— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) October 2, 2020

Everyone’s favourite ECB chart. #glwt pic.twitter.com/wesPQMpsTS

— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) October 2, 2020

 

In addition, looking at growth prospects, September data suggest that economic recovery lost momentum especially in services’ sector. Markit September flash PMI showed a decline to 47.6, a print below the expansion threshold of 50 and a 4-month low. Furthermore, high frequency data that I’m looking for in the hospitality sector flagged a downturn since mid-August. New restriction measures in Spain, France and Germany also imply a further deterioration in the coming weeks.

 

Therefore, the ECB is likely to revise downward both its inflation and growth estimates in December, when it will update its forecasts. In case there is no positive confidence shock (vaccine, treatment, etc.), the ECB should be tempted to take new measures in order to limit deflationary risks in the short term. Concretely, the ECB could review its inflation target or increase the size of its asset purchases program. This scenario is even more likely if the euro bounces around 1.20 against the dollar, a threshold from which many policymakers spoke in an attempt to contain upward pressures.

 

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 30 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.

 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Oct. 2nd)

 

1/21. Oct 03 to Oct 09 – #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU https://t.co/lsAJmfF616 https://t.co/YgpOxMJcyy
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatasciencehttps://t.co/GPy76bI44N pic.twitter.com/YjCrTAr3bM

— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) October 2, 2020

 

Germany (data)

#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 2,563 (v 2,673 prior) – RKI pic.twitter.com/iFBR9d7mQB

— Macro Brief (@macroandfinance) October 3, 2020

 

Spain (data)

Datos por comunidades 02/10/2020:

⚠️Hoy hay 11.325 nuevos positivos.

– Evolución IA= Incidencia acumulada (indica cuantos casos, proporcional a 100.000 hab)
– Razón de tasas
– Situación global y número de casos, compara con IA de 7 y 14 días

Sigue hilo pic.twitter.com/sUjetBkRAD

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) October 2, 2020

➡️Gráficas de casos notificados por día y acumulados en 14 y 7 días.

Hoy hay 11.325 casos nuevos. El viernes pasado fueron 12.209. Hace 2 viernes fueron 14.389. Hace 3 viernes 12.183. pic.twitter.com/qp4KvZ48pb

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) October 2, 2020

DATOS COVID-19 ESPAÑA

POSITIVOS PCR
✔️ +11.325 total
✔️ 3.722 día previo

113 FALLECIDOS

10.372 HOSP. [-495 ]
1.566 UCI [+5 ]

⚠️ —> + +

HILO pic.twitter.com/tbemilT60A

— Miguel Ángel Reinoso (@mianrey) October 2, 2020

Esta última semana la incidencia de la C. Madrid ha empezado a descender con fuerza.

Como venía ascendiendo aún con algo de ritmo, a muchos nos ha sorprendido y hecho dudar. Es humano y cuestionarse las cosas es bueno. pic.twitter.com/Zlsy6YAYHn

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) October 2, 2020

#Europe's worst infection hotspot #Madrid heads for lockdown – Reutershttps://t.co/0ieMWG5Hmy

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2020

 

France (data)

Moyenne des cas #COVIDー19 détectés (Source bilan SPF by @Fabien_L)

⬇️12148 cas (-23,09% vs j-7)
⬇️Moyenne à 10946 (-9,82% vs j-7⬇️)

PS : les bilans SPF pointent les cas à réception du résultat du test alors que SIDEP prend en compte la date du prélèvement. SIDEP a 3j de retard pic.twitter.com/SiLv8kpHdG

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 2, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du 02/10 (29/09 pour les tests) : https://t.co/oGJiH5Wy3k @EricBillyFR @Le___Doc #COVID19france pic.twitter.com/JZbGNVmg3P

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 2, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (29/09). Seules les données des 28-29/09 sont disponibles pour la S40 (cette semaine). Suivre l'évolution avec les données disponibles dans les prochains jours : https://t.co/oGJiH5Wy3k pic.twitter.com/LAci3hgD49

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 2, 2020

[THREAD]#MétéoCovidFrance du 02 octobre

Hospitalisations

France Métropolitaine :
678 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (612)
Moyenne 551,57 ⬆️ J-1 (542,14)

DOM :
43 entrées ⬇️ J-7 (49)
Moyenne 28,14 ⬇️ J-1 (29,00)

Graph sur toute la période et les 120 derniers jours

La suite ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/QIydAhrDlX

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 2, 2020

Mise à jour région par région du nombre total de personne hospitalisé et en Réanimation en France Métropolitaine + DOM.

6740 Hospitalisations
[+106 ]
9 en hausse
3 stable
6 en baisse

127. Réanimations
[+11 ]
9 en hausse
3 stable
6 en baisse pic.twitter.com/TyFnS4N6Mc

— Fabien_L (@Fabien_L) October 2, 2020

 

Italy (data)

Coronavirus in Italia, il bollettino di oggi 2 ottobre: 2.499 nuovi casi e 23 morti https://t.co/Zb5T48gl2B

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) October 2, 2020

Covid in Italia, il monitoraggio: rischio di rapido peggioramento https://t.co/yho1qSLwEi

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) October 2, 2020


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Fun fact of the day:

There are now more ETFs than stocks listed on the NYSE and Nasdaq

PS: I will update this tweet when there are more SPACs than stocks pic.twitter.com/YF6PNXX5GE

— Vincent Deluard (@VincentDeluard) October 2, 2020

What a difference a week makes.

Speculators bought back about $32 billion worth of this net short position through Tuesday. pic.twitter.com/iDmiWgl6bB

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) October 2, 2020

11 millions US jobs remain lost. In addition, the number of permanent job losses is rising faster than during the last two #recessions. ht @GregDaco pic.twitter.com/yzXznqRR5l

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) October 3, 2020

Some perspective pic.twitter.com/s3YsrfOewa

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 3, 2020

#Eurozone savings ratio jumped to a new all-time high of 24.6% after setting a new high of 16% in Q1 partly due to involuntary savings b/c of spending constraints and partly due to voluntary saving b/c of labour
market developments or precautionary savings. (via DB) pic.twitter.com/D2e5YqLetV

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 3, 2020

Americas

Wall Street rallied on Friday, but the Dow and the S&P 500 still posted their longest weekly losing streaks since August 2019, as fears of a slowing economy sparked an almost month-long rout. More here: https://t.co/QcvFysRECS pic.twitter.com/BI70Hn8qsl

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) September 26, 2020

#SPX | S&P 500’s Fourth Week of Losses Sounds Alarm on Economic Growth – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/U3YjAHR1bx pic.twitter.com/sdAuOtoF8N

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 26, 2020

Rise in virus cases adds to economic uncertainty ahead of U.S. election https://t.co/3MW0wAUt3K pic.twitter.com/Tqd6TeMw8V

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) September 26, 2020

Pelosi, Mnuchin Resume Talks on U.S. Fiscal Stimulus With Call – Bloomberghttps://t.co/OZgiGa4hEp

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 26, 2020

#Trump Tells Associates He’s Picking Barrett for Supreme Court – Bloomberghttps://t.co/TOdknJKIdR

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 26, 2020

US sanctions #China’s biggest chipmaker – FThttps://t.co/pLuBiiDGMv

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 26, 2020

Asia

China "state media are lashing out and threatening retaliation on multiple fronts—or 'legitimate countermeasures,' as China likes to put it. That version of reciprocity amounts to telling the world: 'Stay open to China, or China will hurt you.'"@DSORennie https://t.co/19wbfDaFaz

— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) September 26, 2020

China needs to step up global financial integration: FX regulator https://t.co/GFSJigkqvr pic.twitter.com/R8yGiWqp0H

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) September 26, 2020

North Korean leader Kim apologizes over killing of South Korean official https://t.co/KGjrfTF9WV pic.twitter.com/GgQvoY6abx

— The Hill (@thehill) September 26, 2020

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga declared his willingness to meet North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un without preconditions https://t.co/Zj5HfAEikU

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) September 25, 2020

Japan to ease entry restrictions for all countries, but not tourists.https://t.co/pmaNZhgpRp

— Nikkei Asian Review (@NAR) September 26, 2020

Europe

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (September 26th)

*Focus on #Germany, #Spain, #France and #Italy

HT @FLAHAULT, @ngbpadel2, @starjoin, @gforestier, @Reuters, @Corrierehttps://t.co/gdlgXFkOTg

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 26, 2020

Government estimates 100,000 people in England had coronavirus last week https://t.co/c1MEqleN9U

— Financial Times (@FT) September 25, 2020

Opposition parties join Tory rebels to fight virus measures https://t.co/zWT7rZ3OWH

— Financial Times (@FT) September 25, 2020

European Bond Market May Look to #ECB for Help Amid Supply Risks – Bloomberg
*#Germany and #France to update debt-issuance plans on Monday
*Lagarde, other officials at ECB Watchers event on Wednesdayhttps://t.co/nG2KFFVIWV

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 26, 2020

NEW: The EU has set out conditions the U.K. must meet if Brexit talks are to move into a negotiating “tunnel” where the two sides would work on a joint text https://t.co/SJSU1Cc2Dz

— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) September 25, 2020