Daily Archives: October 2, 2020

The #Covid_19 pandemic helped fuel the worst third quarter on record for large corporate bankruptcies. 70 companies with more than $50 million in liabilities sought bankruptcy protection last quarter. That compares to the 76 in the prior quarter – Bloomberg data pic.twitter.com/KTENKhWPrS

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2020

This year’s torrent of corporate-debt issuance is showing no sign of slowing after a record September for U.S. high-grade bond sales – Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/4HuD3My8oS

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2020

Worst year for XLE in over 20 years, down a whopping 52% YTD. The only other year when the index was down more than 40% was 2008. pic.twitter.com/OBSpp0dML8

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) October 2, 2020

Interest rate volatility is at an all-time low:

In the past, such low volatility was followed by a sharp ramp higher and a stock market crash.

2007 all over again? pic.twitter.com/ZEP7vBNY6q

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) October 2, 2020

'The deeper the deficit and the greater the need for Uncle Sam to borrow, then the cheaper will be the dollar to entice potential lenders. If that logic works out this time, as this chart shows rather dramatically, then the dollar has further to fall.' https://t.co/6JiiXEGcyD pic.twitter.com/FvV04oOOaC

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) October 2, 2020

Americas

House Democrats Pass $2.2 Trillion Stimulus Republicans Reject – Bloomberghttps://t.co/WDFuKwfA4d

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2020

#Trump Tests Positive for #Covid_19 After Close Aide Becomes Ill – Bloomberghttps://t.co/Ji3g7dkWk1

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2020

President Trump Covid-19 infection raises the risk of a widespread outbreak within the White House. https://t.co/41OGTz5tG2

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 2, 2020

Market Watchers Warn of Deeper Selloff as Trump Tests Positive – Bloomberghttps://t.co/SsUponUe4b

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2020

It's U.S. jobs report day – here's what to expect https://t.co/0mgkZG75cz

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 2, 2020

Joe Biden’s campaign and other Democrats in key battleground states are readying their own efforts to monitor balloting https://t.co/TWy8LuopAr

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 2, 2020

Asia

U.S. and European equity futures fell with Asian stocks after President Donald Trump said he tested positive for Covid-19 https://t.co/1mt2xbQirg pic.twitter.com/gtdRX64Yg8

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 2, 2020

Good morning, Asia. This was our most read story while you were sleeping.https://t.co/Tp9j8aiuf3

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) October 2, 2020

#China #Tech to Face Even Closer Scrutiny From Global Governments – Bloomberghttps://t.co/C0Hs1BPfc8

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2020

The sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made her first appearance in state media since July, an absence that had fueled speculation her power had been clipped https://t.co/IAc3RVYQU6

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 2, 2020

Australia-New Zealand travel bubble to partially open within two weeks https://t.co/y8TGzqMZm7

— The Guardian (@guardian) October 2, 2020

Europe

Here's a rundown of your top economic news today https://t.co/7pBfOhZ9fa

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 2, 2020

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (October 2nd)

*Focus on #Germany, #Spain, #France and #Italy

HT @FLAHAULT, @macroandfinance, @ngbpadel2, @mianrey, @starjoin, @gforestier, @Fabien_L, @Corrierehttps://t.co/evCd4Wu4Fq

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2020

#EUROZONE SEPT ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: -0.3% (largest ⬇ since Feb. 2015) V -0.2%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.2% (lowest on record) V 0.4%Ehttps://t.co/sAhWwbh7PA

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2020

#BREXIT: UK HOUSING MINISTER SAYS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT TOMORROW'S TALKS BETWEEN JOHNSON AND VON DER LEYEN MEAN – RTRS

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2020

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will intervene in post-Brexit trade negotiations for the first time since June https://t.co/l9oeCvMU7g

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 2, 2020

The ECB will start experimenting with a digital euro while holding a public consultation in a major step toward introducing the technology https://t.co/zeziCoGZU0

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 2, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 30 European countries (v 29 prior) have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.

 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Oct. 1st)

 

1/21. Oct 02 to Oct 08 – #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU https://t.co/lsAJmfF616 https://t.co/YgpOxMJcyy
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience https://t.co/u2tz2uy7mV pic.twitter.com/v1jRR8pKXu

— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) October 1, 2020

 

Germany (data)

#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 2,673 (v 2,503 prior) – RKI pic.twitter.com/fqx7gxM97I

— Macro Brief (@macroandfinance) October 2, 2020

 

Spain (data)

Datos por comunidades 01/10/2020:

⚠️Hoy hay 9.419 nuevos positivos.

– Evolución IA= Incidencia acumulada (indica cuantos casos, proporcional a 100.000 hab)
– Razón de tasas
– Situación global y número de casos, compara con IA de 7 y 14 días

Sigue hilo pic.twitter.com/ul4WYyX7MA

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) October 1, 2020

➡️Gráficas de casos notificados por día y acumulados en 14 y 7 días.

Hoy hay 9.419 casos nuevos. El jueves pasado fueron 10.653. Hace 2 jueves fueron 11.291. Hace 3 jueves 10.764. pic.twitter.com/QPEJnowcuM

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) October 1, 2020

DATOS COVID-19 ESPAÑA

POSITIVOS PCR
✔️ +9.419 total
✔️ 3.715 día previo

182 FALLECIDOS

10.867 HOSP. [+12 ]
1.561 UCI [+22 ]

⚠️ —> + +

HILO pic.twitter.com/5pM5eZGqE1

— Miguel Ángel Reinoso (@mianrey) October 1, 2020

 

France (data)

Moyenne des cas #COVIDー19 détectés (Source bilan SPF by @Fabien_L)

⬇️13970 cas (-13% vs j-7)
⬇️Moyenne à 11467 (-4% vs j-7 ⬇️)

PS : les bilans SPF pointent les cas à réception du résultat du test alors que SIDEP prend en compte la date du prélèvement. SIDEP a 3j de retard. pic.twitter.com/EjvqnJnghk

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 1, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du 01/10 (28/09 pour les tests) : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU @EricBillyFR @Le___Doc #COVID19france pic.twitter.com/qmKpfrIZ43

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 1, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (28/09). Seules les données du 28/09 sont disponibles pour la S40 (cette semaine). Suivre l'évolution avec les données disponibles dans les prochains jours : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU pic.twitter.com/WX01kFMx55

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) October 1, 2020

[THREAD]#MétéoCovidFrance du 01 octobre

Hospitalisations

France Métropolitaine :
603 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (569)
Moyenne 542,14 ⬆️ J-1 (537,29)

DOM :
23 entrées ⬇️ J-7 (44)
Moyenne 29,00 ⬇️ J-1 (32,00)

Graph sur toute la période et les 120 derniers jours

La suite ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/b40xZKQHFO

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 1, 2020

Mise à jour région par région du nombre total de personne hospitalisé et en Réanimation en France Métropolitaine + DOM.

6634 Hospitalisations
[+62 ]
7 en hausse
3 stable
8 en baisse

1259 Réanimations
[+27 ]
9 en hausse
2 stable
7 en baisse pic.twitter.com/b8UOmUygo7

— Fabien_L (@Fabien_L) October 1, 2020

Nombre de cas 60 ans et + détectés versus nombre d'entrées à l'hôpital.

Moyenne (7j) des nouveaux cas de 60 ans et + détectés
Moyenne (7j) des entrées à l'hôpital (échelle des cas divisée par 2 décalés de 10 jours)

⚠️Les échelles sont volontairement différentes. pic.twitter.com/h1ZmMmsMDi

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) October 1, 2020

 

Italy (data)

Coronavirus in Italia, il bollettino di oggi 1 ottobre: 2.548 nuovi casi e 24 morti https://t.co/IXIaY1106t

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) October 1, 2020


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

eurozone industrial production

On Friday, Eurostat will release the first estimate of Eurozone HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) for September. According to the Bloomberg consensus, on a YoY basis, Eurozone HICP is expected to decrease by 0.2%e (v -0.2% in August). Regional surveys and my proxies suggest that the consensus remains optimistic.

 

1/ Most of regional surveys were already released and showed that HICP contracted significantly YoY in September:

Germany HICP YoY: -0.4% v -0.1% prior

Spain HICP YoY: -0.6% v -0.6% prior

Italy HICP YoY: -0.9% v -0.5% prior

Portugal HICP YoY: -0.7% v -0.2% prior

 

2/ The deflationary pressures have been confirmed by several reports including Markit surveys, which highlighted that “average prices charged for goods and services meanwhile fell at the steepest rate since June, down on average for a seventh month running as firms increasingly reported the need to offer discounts to stimulate sales.

 

3/ A large part of the decline was explained by a cut in value-added tax in Germany, delayed summer sales (already flagged last month), weakness in hotels and restaurants’ prices (after a strong summer season) and lower energy prices (seen in France and Germany).

 

All in all, the September HICP report is likely to confirm that, on a YoY basis, July acceleration (+0.4% YoY) was supported by transitory factors (which reversed immediately) and that the coronavirus shock has been deflationary in the short term. As a result, Eurozone HICP is likely to remaine negative or close to 0.0% until year-end. This trend is likely to push ECB officials to think about adding more stimulus, probably as soon as December.

 

As expected, U.S. New Vehicle Sales Rose to a 7-month high in September. According to Wards data, they increased by 7.6% MoM, reaching 16.34M SAAR and beating the Bloomberg consensus of 15.70Me. It was the fifth consecutive monthly rise, getting sales close to pre-crisis level of 16.83M SAAR.

The WSJ noted that “strong demand for trucks and sport-utility vehicles is driving the comeback, which is occurring faster than many had expected this summer. Also contributing is an increase in urban consumers turning to car ownership, as well as easier credit conditions that make car payments more affordable.” In the meantime, Reuters highlighted that “the U.S. auto sector has climbed back quicker than other industries, but automakers had a hand in that with aggressive incentives like zero-for-84 months financing, payment deferrals and job assurance programs.

The September’s spike is a positive sign in a context where the federal government’s CARES Act programs — which provided financial relief to individuals and businesses affected by COVID-19 — for the most part expired at the end of July. As a result, the auto sector should support September retail sales that will be released on October 16th.