Daily Archives: September 28, 2020

Summary Key Macro Events

Brexit negotiations resume on Monday in Brussels after David Frost, prime minister Boris Johnson’s EU adviser, and chief negotiator Michel Barnier met for informal talks last week in London. The ninth round of negotiations will close on Friday.

The Italian government is set to discuss on Monday economic measures to implement previous stimulus packages. (28)

ECB President Christine Lagarde appears in European Parliament for a regular hearing. (28)

President Donald Trump faces former Vice President Joe Biden on Tuesday night in the first of three debates ahead of the November election. (29)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for September (29)

Manufacturing PMI for September (30)

Pending Home Sales for August (30)

China launches complaint center for foreign investors. (1)

India’s central bank meets on Thursday. (2)

ISM Manufacturing for September (1)

CPI estimate for September (2)

Employment Report for September (2)

 


 

The week ahead
— Jack Ma leaves Alibaba
— TikTok ban
— Honda's new 'workstyle'https://t.co/g3dvszg9ba

— Nikkei Asian Review (@NAR) September 27, 2020

Final Jobs Report Before U.S. Election in Store: Eco Week Ahead – Bloomberg
*Phalanx of Fed, ECB policy makers scheduled to speak
*Link: https://t.co/9IswFX9d0U pic.twitter.com/jKkAVBMlVG

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 27, 2020

Trump vs Biden, Brexit talks, US labour data https://t.co/xWr8S065FX

— FT Economics (@fteconomics) September 27, 2020

In economic news this week, China’s official purchasing managers index for manufacturing is expected to show factory activity expanded in September https://t.co/PByyG8Erx1

— Real Time Economics (@WSJecon) September 28, 2020

Market volatility expected to continue in the week ahead with Presidential debate and jobs report https://t.co/dY3sgMnA1K pic.twitter.com/1nfIdp17Ae

— Patti Domm (@pattidomm) September 25, 2020

#Brexit Talks Enter Key Week With Time and Trust Running Out – Bloomberghttps://t.co/K8ZbvIIxw2

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 28, 2020

Notable #Earnings To Watch This Week (via @eWhispers)

Mon: $THOR $CALM $WB $SINA $UNFI
Tues: $MU $INFO $MKC $PRGS
Wed: $NG
Thurs: $PEP $BBBY $CAG $STZ $SGH
Fri: –$DIA $SPY $SPX $ES_F $QQQ $NQ_F pic.twitter.com/V1B8WBrBaP

— Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) September 27, 2020

 


 

Focus on Economic Calendar

Tips From Top Forecaster: U.S. Economic Calendar (w40) | New Vehicle Sales, Change in Nonfarm Payrolls https://t.co/DJPqn7K93p

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 27, 2020

Schedule for Week of September 27, 2020 https://t.co/iGX95wpVXa The key report this week is the September employment report on Friday.

Also the third estimate of Q2 GDP, the September ISM, September auto sales, Personal Income for August and Case-Shiller house prices for July.

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) September 26, 2020

 


 

Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Previous Week – w39

⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w39 ⚠

HT @jessefelder, @Schuldensuehner, @MacroCharts, @LizAnnSonders, @sdypbuktkallman, @tracyalloway, @TaviCosta, @LanceRobertshttps://t.co/gLqKd6qWaD

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 27, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 28 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.

 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Sep. 27th)

 

1/21. Sep 28 to Oct 04 – #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU https://t.co/lsAJmfF616 https://t.co/YgpOxMJcyy
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatasciencehttps://t.co/ewSwnbPOiN pic.twitter.com/eN8MGSkw1j

— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) September 27, 2020

Emergency Lockdown Plan To Ban Socialising And Combat Second Wave Of Coronavirus – The Times https://t.co/Gv6OxwlbTW

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 27, 2020

UK Preparing To Enforce A Total Social Lockdown Across Much Of Northern Britain And Potentially London – The Times https://t.co/yawYB3OVMD

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 27, 2020

 

Germany (data)

#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 1,192 (v 1,411 prior) – RKI pic.twitter.com/uRSff2QuYl

— Macro Brief (@macroandfinance) September 28, 2020

Germany Has Its Own Dr. Fauci—and Actually Follows His Advice – Bloomberghttps://t.co/P1ir6d1Hns

— Macro Brief (@macroandfinance) September 28, 2020

 

Spain (data)

Casos COVID-19 notificados durante el fin de semana en España:

– Sábado —> 7.591
– Domingo —> 4.206
– TOTAL —> 11.797

1.315 casos menos que el fin de semana pasado@SaludMadrid, @SanidadCLM, @Ingesa_Melilla y @GVAsanitat (domingo) no actualizan durante el fin de semana pic.twitter.com/lbi9u3N8j7

— Miguel Ángel Reinoso (@mianrey) September 27, 2020

Madrid in standoff with government over Covid-19 lockdown https://t.co/02hcpNoSGX

— Guardian Australia (@GuardianAus) September 28, 2020

 

France (data)

Moyenne des cas #COVIDー19 détectés (Source bilan quotidien SPF by @Fabien_L)

⬆️ 11123 cas (+5% vs j-7)
⬆️ Moyenne à 12258 (+19%⬇️)

PS : les bilans SPF pointent les cas à réception du résultat du test alors que SIDEP prend en compte la date du prélèvement. SIDEP a 3j de retard pic.twitter.com/vMvuSUi97P

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) September 27, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du 27/09 (24/09 pour les tests) : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU@EricBillyFR @Le___Doc #COVID19france pic.twitter.com/uKSfqrk8co

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) September 27, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (24/09). ⚠️Seules les données des 21-22-23-24/09 sont disponibles pour la S39 (cette semaine). Suivre l'évolution avec les données disponibles dans les prochains jours : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU pic.twitter.com/USYpCH5xO9

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) September 27, 2020

[THREAD]#MétéoCovidFrance du 27 septembre

Hospitalisations

France Métropolitaine :
233 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (128)
Moyenne 567,29 ⬆️ J-1 (552,29)

DOM :
8 entrées ⬇️ J-7 (11)
Moyenne 33,29 ⬇️ J-1 (33,71)

Graph sur toute la période et les 120 derniers jours

La suite ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/hzw8KwPROC

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) September 27, 2020

Nombre de cas 60 ans et + détectés versus nombre d'entrées à l'hôpital.

Moyenne (7j) des nouveaux cas de 60 ans et + détectés
Moyenne (7j) des entrées à l'hôpital (échelle des cas divisée par 2 décalée à 10 jours)

⚠️Les échelles sont volontairement différentes. pic.twitter.com/vsyC7o7QDu

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) September 27, 2020

Mise à jour région par région du nombre total de personne hospitalisé et en Réanimation en France Métropolitaine + DOM.

6235 Hospitalisations
[+81 ]
11 en hausse
2 stable
5 en baisse

1112 Réanimations
[+7 ]
7 en hausse
5 stable
6 en baisse pic.twitter.com/wj6vWXR4uk

— Fabien_L (@Fabien_L) September 27, 2020

 

Italy (data)

In Italia oggi 1.766 nuovi casi: in calo ma 20 mila tamponi in meno. 17 decessi, 250 terapie intensive https://t.co/8rn1UhwinC

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) September 27, 2020


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Americas

Value of U.S. commercial property slashed by 27%, Financial Times reports https://t.co/emRdaCbO2Y pic.twitter.com/EagP2XGeXy

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) September 27, 2020

Pelosi expresses hope deal can be reached with White House on COVID-19 relief https://t.co/pkjnwfTkhG pic.twitter.com/zXLQn8eCqP

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) September 27, 2020

So. Donald Trump paid only $750 in tax in 2016, when he was elected as part of a wave of anger against inequality, and the same amount the following year, his first in the White House.
Trump’s Taxes Show Chronic Losses and Years of Income Tax Avoidance https://t.co/bbNh8jJTSs

— John Authers (@johnauthers) September 27, 2020

Trump's tax revelation could tarnish image that fueled rise https://t.co/Xrb0EKam4A

— Trading News (@4xInsight) September 28, 2020

Value of U.S. commercial property slashed by 27%, Financial Times reports https://t.co/emRdaCbO2Y pic.twitter.com/EagP2XGeXy

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) September 27, 2020

Poll: Biden leads Trump in swing states Wisconsin, Michigan https://t.co/MQ8KyglQBa pic.twitter.com/MieFl1jsAB

— The Hill (@thehill) September 28, 2020

President Donald Trump’s ban on TikTok was temporarily blocked by a federal judge, dealing a blow to the government. https://t.co/ybScxW8B1Y

— Bloomberg Law (@BLaw) September 28, 2020

Asia

#Asia Stocks Rise With U.S. Futures; Dollar Dips: Markets Wrap – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/VC60sJ7uls pic.twitter.com/k6hhrVMXG9

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 28, 2020

Evergrande Tries to Stop Bond, Stock Rout From Spiraling – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/SoaJhoG4xu pic.twitter.com/IT0XNyQldY

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 28, 2020

HSBC Posts Biggest Intraday Jump Since 2009 After Selloff – Bloomberghttps://t.co/43SzAhDNrf

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 28, 2020

HSBC shares rebound after China’s Ping An increases its stake https://t.co/ZB81SOp0ri

— Financial Times (@FT) September 28, 2020

#China must prepare for 'long tech march' following U.S. restrictions on SMIC: Global Times – Reutershttps://t.co/ua0sCZ75Nd

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 28, 2020

China’s economic rebound showed signs of plateauing in September, early indictators show. Lackluster home and car sales, a weaker stock market and worsening business confidence added to pressure. https://t.co/elxP6w4zjD pic.twitter.com/pcpXlxrCco

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 27, 2020

Sick of staying home: China expects a Golden Week tourism rebound https://t.co/qyK1AH0V2B pic.twitter.com/VCKQAWgGS8

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) September 28, 2020

Thailand will extend a state of emergency through October as the tourism-dependent nation gears up to re-open its borders to foreign visitors https://t.co/NxOouaW13o

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 28, 2020

Europe

-European Central Bank debates if and when to add monetary aid
-Post-Brexit trade talks enter key week with time and trust running out
-Central banks globally have pledged almost $9 trillion in 2020
Here's a rundown of your top economic news today https://t.co/2zbHI0swHH

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 28, 2020

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (September 28th)

*Focus on #Germany, #Spain, #France and #Italy

HT @FLAHAULT, @LiveSquawk, @macroandfinance, @mianrey, @GuardianAus, @starjoin, @gforestier, @Corrierehttps://t.co/OWZMMPpnpI

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 28, 2020

Emergency Lockdown Plan To Ban Socialising And Combat Second Wave Of Coronavirus – The Times https://t.co/Gv6OxwlbTW

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 27, 2020

#Brexit Talks Enter Key Week With Time and Trust Running Out – Bloomberghttps://t.co/K8ZbvIIxw2

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 28, 2020

Britain Is Heading For No-Deal Brexit, Ireland’s Taoiseach Micheál Martin Says After PM ‘Eroded Trust’ – i News https://t.co/1DBPam1kBH

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 27, 2020

#ECB Officials Prepare for Clash of Clans on Next Stimulus Move – Bloomberghttps://t.co/EjC3Nlz3vT

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 28, 2020

EU leaders fret over pandemic economic recovery deal – FThttps://t.co/zxdeHoDCX8

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 28, 2020

The Turkish lira has fallen in Asian morning hours in response to the breakout of hostilities between #Armenia and #Azerbaijanhttps://t.co/XlA1pSSxYc

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 28, 2020

Conservatives Lead In French Senate Elections, Greens Gain – APhttps://t.co/a546mXs3fP

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 28, 2020

Swiss voters reject nationalist proposal to curb immigration https://t.co/kDlNNC2Xap

— Financial Times (@FT) September 27, 2020

2020 has already set the record for the largest dollar volume of IPOs.
⁰36% higher than the peak of the tech bubble with 2 more months to go.
⁰Also the largest number of issuances since 2000 and 1999.

More importantly:

Only 9% of all 2020’s IPOs were actually profitable. pic.twitter.com/XeNZxTQ3Ie

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) September 28, 2020

Biggest experiment in monetary history is being continued. What we are looking for is the point at which confidence in the central banks collapses because they have printed too much money. SNB's balance sheet now accounts for over 150% of Switzerland's GDP, BoJ's at almost 140%. pic.twitter.com/zfs3yV6HeY

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 27, 2020

Global utility stocks are down 12% in relative terms vs. global equities over the past 6M as the global economic surprise index hit new all time highs. Economic surprises peaked in Aug. When data begins to disappoint vs. exp., a defensive equity tilt usually starts to outperform. pic.twitter.com/fWoF2YNJRI

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) September 28, 2020

Junk bond market is on fire pic.twitter.com/Ohc39dhOJb

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 28, 2020

North American investment-grade corporate leverage hit a new high.

Source: @GoldmanSachs pic.twitter.com/V3SavgbcVD

— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) September 28, 2020