Daily Archives: September 14, 2020

Summary Key Macro Events

Belarus’s embattled president Alexander Lukashenko will meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Monday to shore up Moscow’s support for his crackdown on protesters. (14)

European and Chinese leaders meet virtually on Monday to negotiate an investment treaty that has been six years in the making and has now reached a “critical stage”. (14)

Eurozone IP for July ➡ My proxies and regional surveys suggest that an upward surprise is very likely. (14)

Huawei Technologies will stop receiving shipments from the majority of its suppliers, including longtime chip partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., after midnight on Monday. (15)

Beginning Tuesday, travelers from the U.S. regardless of nationality boarding flights to China will be required to submit a negative COVID-19 test taken within three days of departure. (15)

TikTok sale agreement deadline (15)

Apple will stream its annual product launch event from its headquarters in California on Tuesday morning. (15)

Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, will give her first State of European Union address before the European Parliament on Tuesday. (15)

Industrial Production for August (15)

Boris Johnson will be grilled on the UK government’s response to coronavirus when he appears before the House of Commons liaison committee on Wednesday. (16)

Retail Sales for August (16)

Fed meeting (16)

Central Bank Meeting (16)

BOJ Meeting (17)

The Asian Development Bank will release an update to its closely watched Asian Development Outlook. (17)

BOE meeting (17)

Central Bank Meeting (18)

U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence for September (18)

 


 

#Fed’s Guidance Catches Up With Powell’s New Strategy: Week Ahead – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/70uSvPE3mC pic.twitter.com/7QhMlW1Fih

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2020

This week ahead
— US cuts off Huawei
— TikTok sale deadline
— Japan prime minister electionhttps://t.co/0kOz93sxTD

— Nikkei Asian Review (@NAR) September 13, 2020

Investors will look to the Fed to soothe the market next week, but that may be a tall order https://t.co/YjV7rlQMvS

— CNBC (@CNBC) September 11, 2020

Fed, BoE and Japan meet, biggest week for IPOs since Uber https://t.co/kv94Ou7x3q

— FT Economics (@fteconomics) September 13, 2020

 


 

Focus on Economic Calendar

The Fed’s policy meeting highlights a week of central-bank statements and fresh data to help investors and economists gauge the pace of pandemic recovery https://t.co/xO2ePNuAdf

— Real Time Economics (@WSJecon) September 13, 2020

Tips From Top Forecaster: U.S. Economic Calendar (w38) | Industrial Production, Retail Saleshttps://t.co/Apb5uZjagt

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2020

Schedule for Week of September 13, 2020 https://t.co/R7doEMYt5n The key economic reports this week are August Housing Starts and Retail Sales.

The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) September 12, 2020

 


 

Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Previous Week – w37

⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w37 ⚠

HT @WallStJesus, @EricBalchunas, @sentimentrader, @jsblokland, @ReutersJamie, @Silver_Watchdoghttps://t.co/xWdIgskq7F

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 25 European countries (v 24 prior) have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.
 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Sep. 13th)
 

#Israel to Shut Down Again as Second #Coronavirus Wave Hits – WSJhttps://t.co/juPvFbPdrI

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2020

 

Germany

#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 927 on Mon. (v 948 prior and 814 last Mon.) – RKI
*Link: https://t.co/LoHFnnUCU0 pic.twitter.com/M9Tgslczsw

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2020

 

Spain

Casos COVID-19 notificados por las CCAA durante el fin de semana en España:

– Sábado —> 7.096
– Domingo —> 4.966
– TOTAL —> 12.062 pic.twitter.com/gGjEK0pUQP

— Miguel Ángel Reinoso (@mianrey) September 13, 2020

 

France

#FRANCE REPORTS 7,183 NEW #CORONAVIRUS CASES IN PAST 24 HOURS (V 10,561 PRIOR AND 7,071 LAST SUN.)
*Positivity Rate: 5.4% (v 5.4% prior).
*Santé Publique France: https://t.co/bZLT3Rguuz pic.twitter.com/VmYA4BQPcH

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (10/09). ⚠️Seules les données des 07-08-09-10/09 sont disponibles pour la S37 (cette semaine). Suivre l'évolution avec les données disponibles dans les prochains jours : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU pic.twitter.com/JYYS6FoPuk

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) September 13, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du 13/09 (10/09 pour les tests) : https://t.co/oGJiH6e9rU @EricBillyFR @Le___Doc #COVID19france pic.twitter.com/HxGdtTZJ5U

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) September 13, 2020

[THREAD]#MétéoCovidFrance du 13 septembre

Hospitalisations

France Métropolitaine :
94 entrées ⬆️ J-7 (54)
Moyenne 329,57 ⬆️ J-1 (323,86)

DOM :
4 entrées ⬇️ J-7 (12)
Moyenne 22,43 ⬇️ J-1 (23,57)

Graph sur toute la période et les 120 derniers jours

La suite ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/UqOkn25LPG

— Guillaume Saint-Quentin (@starjoin) September 13, 2020

 

Italy

#ITALY REPORTS 1,458 VIRUS CASES SAT. (VS 1,501 SAT. AND 1,297 LAST SUN.)
*Link: https://t.co/FWQszjNVxD pic.twitter.com/LKsDT6XIZE

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2020


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Americas

Pfizer CEO Says Americans Could Get Covid Shot Before Year-End – Bloomberghttps://t.co/yEKwS7fHKn

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2020

Nvidia said it agreed to buy SoftBank Group’s chip division Arm for $40 billion. https://t.co/tak6xwXfu8

— BloombergQuint (@BloombergQuint) September 14, 2020

Microsoft has dropped its bid for TikTok, leaving rival Oracle in pole position before the Sept. 15 sale deadline. https://t.co/4fsdIJ2b4P

— Nikkei Asian Review (@NAR) September 14, 2020

Donald Trump faced criticism in Nevada after holding an indoor campaign rally in defiance of the state’s coronavirus restrictions. Follow our live coverage: https://t.co/B4ASb295gz pic.twitter.com/pbDsGbOCb1

— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) September 14, 2020

Poll: Almost 2 in 3 Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of pandemic https://t.co/lnA8W3rnY6 pic.twitter.com/L0LS4yxGNk

— The Hill (@thehill) September 14, 2020

Terry Branstad will be stepping down as United States Ambassador to China after more than three years in Beijing, a source confirmed to CNN https://t.co/kMpt2d7zvW

— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) September 14, 2020

Asia

⚠️ASIA-PACIFIC STOCK MARKETS EDGE HIGHER TO START THE WEEK ON VACCINE HOPES

– ASX 200 ⬆️0.5%
– NIKKEI 225 ⬆️0.5%
– KOSPI ⬆️1.1%%
– SHANGHAI COMPOSITE ⬆️0.2%
– SHENZHEN COMPOSITE ⬆️0.4%
– HANG SENG ⬆️0.5%
– TAIWAN ⬆️0.9%
– NIFTY 50 ⬆️0.7%https://t.co/xM2EMd1INF pic.twitter.com/nOch1ay4Ry

— Investing.com (@Investingcom) September 14, 2020

Asian shares buoyed by coronavirus vaccine hopes https://t.co/I9yP0j4qYE pic.twitter.com/n0J5ioOaZz

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) September 14, 2020

(4th LD) S. Korea to ease biz restrictions on eateries, coffee franchises in greater Seoul https://t.co/vE8YWWcOoY

— Yonhap News Agency (@YonhapNews) September 13, 2020

*S.KOREA: 3Q RECOVERY SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED ON DISTANCING RULES – BBG

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2020

China home-price growth accelerated in August after a brief slowdown the previous month as credit growth rebounded https://t.co/riaQmKPOhk

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 14, 2020

Japan manufacturers remain gloomy for 14th month – Reuters Tankan https://t.co/1A4eYKI6g0 pic.twitter.com/SRcnLavAO7

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) September 14, 2020

Suga expected to win leadership of Japan's ruling party in first round this afternoon.https://t.co/QhIOZ84Oov

— Nikkei Asian Review (@NAR) September 14, 2020

#China opens anti-subsidy probe on some U.S. glycol ethers imports – Reutershttps://t.co/F9LiaSPmsg

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2020

Europe

Global mkts start on front food to thee week after 2 week slide amid a flurry of deal activity and on Coronavirus vaccine hopes after AstraZeneca resumed phase-3 trial. Nvidia buys SoftBank’s Arm in record $40bn chip deal. Bonds steady w/US 10y at 0.67%. Gold 1947. Bitcoin 10.4k. pic.twitter.com/IpzDTq05E5

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 14, 2020

BREAKING: AstraZeneca resumes Covid-19 vaccine trials in the U.K. https://t.co/cMme9K5IL1

— STAT (@statnews) September 12, 2020

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (September 14th)

*Focus on #Germany, #Spain, #France and #Italy https://t.co/Jh6JKHHIkV

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2020

#Israel to Shut Down Again as Second #Coronavirus Wave Hits – WSJhttps://t.co/juPvFbPdrI

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2020

Underlying price pressures in the euro area have stabilized at a low level that isn’t in line with the ECB’s goal, according to Governing Council member Olli Rehn https://t.co/QsYiCuxwkd

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 14, 2020

Boris Johnson is braced for a rebellion on Monday when MPs scrutinise his internal market bill, which would violate the UK’s Brexit treaty https://t.co/k3lVpZbdvQ

— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) September 14, 2020

Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European leaders, as Beijing seeks to keep the continent from aligning more closely with the U.S. https://t.co/roitXOwUYi

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 14, 2020

Can international law enforcement agencies please open up a Chart Crimes investigation into Deutsche Bank? pic.twitter.com/2yYHglmMeM

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) September 14, 2020

Wild chart…

Volume of trading in single stock options > volume of regular shares for the first time.@WSJ pic.twitter.com/VoNMXvKVOD

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) September 13, 2020

Swiss banking sector is 500% of GDP pic.twitter.com/ddPC8M1EPR

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 14, 2020

some updates with the little hiccup last week… pic.twitter.com/ZrRm4exFPp

— Benn "DJ D-Vol" Eifert (@bennpeifert) September 14, 2020

My feed is absolutely loaded with USD charts today. Some bullish, some bearish, but at the margin probably more short-term bullish charts. Here is a 20-year regression analysis on forecast relative returns for a 1 standard deviation move in DXY across equity regions & sectors. pic.twitter.com/YIREK5HRo8

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) September 14, 2020