Daily Archives: September 6, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 23 European countries (v 21 yesterday) have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.
 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Sep. 5th)

 

Germany

#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 988 on Sun. (v 1,378 prior and 785 last Sun.) – RKI
*Link: https://t.co/LoHFnnUCU0 pic.twitter.com/rbe0bQZc1U

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 6, 2020

 

Spain

Casos COVID notificados hoy por las CCAA:

– CAT —> 1.481
– AND —> 1.030
– PV —> 745
– CV —> 630
– CYL —> 560
– MUR —> 390
– CAN —> 365
– GAL —> 293
– ARA —> 248
– EXT —> 223
– NAV —> 191
– CNB —> 128
– AST —> 65
– LRI —> 18*
– CEU —> 8
– MAD, CLM, BAL, MEL —> 0

– TOTAL —> 6.375

— Miguel Ángel Reinoso (@mianrey) September 5, 2020

 

France

#FRANCE REPORTS NEW 8,550 #CORONAVIRUS CASES IN PAST 24 HOURS (V 8,975 PRIOR AND 5,453 LAST SAT.)
*Positivity Rate: 4.7❗(v 4.5% prior).
*Santé Publique France: https://t.co/bZLT3Rguuz pic.twitter.com/g9qYRNnOxg

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 6, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (02/09). ⚠️Les taux de la semaine 36 (cette semaine) sont estimés uniquement avec les données du 31/08 01-02/09 (suivre l'évolution avec les données disponibles les prochains jours). pic.twitter.com/IfWrIlSkQv

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) September 5, 2020

France leads Europe’s coronavirus surge just as schools reopen https://t.co/QfF7bAhJxg pic.twitter.com/E4qDJH03zs

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 5, 2020

 

Italy

#ITALY REPORTS 1,695 VIRUS CASES SATURDAY (VS 1,733 FRI. AND 1,444 LAST SAT.)
*Link: https://t.co/FWQszjNVxD pic.twitter.com/yqNwpG5XxQ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 5, 2020

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Americas

U.S. considers blacklisting #China’s largest chipmaker as tech tensions escalate – CNBChttps://t.co/mHmB5YLy4J

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 6, 2020

#China’s SMIC Says Assumptions of Ties With Military Are ‘False’ – Bloomberghttps://t.co/okK8fPIOqG

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 6, 2020

Small business owners are still withholding money for Social Security despite a presidential order allowing the tax to be deferred. They're wary about the plan, which allows employers to stop withholding the tax until Dec. 31. https://t.co/D302ITbFaG

— The Associated Press (@AP) September 5, 2020

About 1 in 5 Americans either have relocated during the virus outbreak or know someone who has https://t.co/kUToS5ony6

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 5, 2020

Trump’s push to reopen the U.S. quickly may have saved some economic damage. But indicators both at home and from around the globe suggest that until the U.S. gets its coronavirus outbreak under control, its long-term economic prospects remain dicey. https://t.co/JOnRVFXt7J

— POLITICO (@politico) September 6, 2020

The extent of Covid-19 across America this fall could depend in part on how people behave this Labor Day weekend https://t.co/LPgPjV6Xuv

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 5, 2020

A wave of data this week suggested that the 2020 presidential race was largely holding steady after the parties’ conventions. Here’s our weekly analysis of the state of the campaign: https://t.co/ZmSiFqxX4K

— The New York Times (@nytimes) September 5, 2020

Asia

China’s top leaders next month will lay out their economic strategy for the next five years in a bid to insulate its economy from geopolitical fights https://t.co/0pHrvD1eIK

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 6, 2020

China will accelerate the opening up of its capital markets and deepen reforms to attract more foreign investors https://t.co/MioPJQh3eE

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 6, 2020

Iran looks to China as US sanctions bite https://t.co/krDgDjxFsB

— FT China (@ftchina) September 6, 2020

India has a new plan to tackle $140 billion in bad loans https://t.co/MPrGdYwUXO

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 6, 2020

Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 2 launches on Sept. 18 for $1,999 — take a look: https://t.co/aYlNucY4z5 pic.twitter.com/ZkSvzufKsT

— CNBC (@CNBC) September 5, 2020

Europe

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (September 6th)https://t.co/bj5gzIHiqR

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 6, 2020

– UK News Beyond BBG –
* BBC: Explore airport testing to cut quarantine – Labour
* Guardian: Covid-19 Virus ‘could be endemic in deprived parts of England’
* The Times: MPs unite in defence of free speechhttps://t.co/wdxUlvyt4y

— Ed van der Walt (@EdVanDerWalt) September 6, 2020

Why the world worries about Russia's Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline https://t.co/3E0PMGLotI

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 5, 2020

Lithuania’s foreign minister issues Belarus warning to EU https://t.co/td79kZaPvO

— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) September 6, 2020

EU sounds alarm on critical raw materials shortages https://t.co/Bt8i2Xixf0

— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) September 1, 2020

Global stocks lost $1.6tn mkt cap in tech rout this week against backdrop of surprisingly firm macro data. Sell-off was as much of rotation from leaders to laggards as it was broad Risk-Off event, complete w/shift out of Tech into more pro-cyclical vaccine beneficiaries, GS says. pic.twitter.com/VYZAJdfMsh

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 6, 2020

3. #Seasonality$SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/V8HK0QukAR

— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) September 5, 2020

Short Interest pic.twitter.com/D3tIpts6I2

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 6, 2020

S&P expects the U.S. trailing-12-month speculative-grade corporate default rate to rise to 12.5% by June 2021 from 5.4% as of June 2020 pic.twitter.com/5F845LRwkx

— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) September 4, 2020

10. Record capital raised by SPACs goes to show the type of environment we're in: investors are deploying cash where they don't even know what the ultimate investment will even be.

h/t @fintechfrank pic.twitter.com/afprqIOzpT

— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) September 5, 2020

pic.twitter.com/47NAGXnLIz

— Investing.com (@Investingcom) September 4, 2020

Global stocks lost $1.6tn mkt cap in tech rout this week against backdrop of surprisingly firm macro data. Sell-off was as much of rotation from leaders to laggards as it was broad Risk-Off event, complete w/shift out of Tech into more pro-cyclical vaccine beneficiaries, GS says. pic.twitter.com/VYZAJdfMsh

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 6, 2020

Vol Up Spot Up! Some thoughts…

large call buying in $NDX single names is driving index vols higher with spot as dealers are short gamma/vega in these names. Over the last 3 days the $VXN is up 6pts on a 2% rally in the NDX.

(red dot in the chart is today) pic.twitter.com/vewcIeyy30

— Pat Hennessy, CMT (@pat_hennessy) August 28, 2020

‘What just happened?’ ask bruised #tech investors – FT
*Link: https://t.co/aIwev7Yc8A pic.twitter.com/SlxdwAz9PP

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 5, 2020

Maybe some downside volatility would discourage options traders. 'Twas not to be.

Last week, the smallest of traders *increased* their bets on stocks.

In a month they have gambled nearly $40 billion on stocks. That's a notional value of ~$500 billion.

It's not just Softbank. pic.twitter.com/BEViDztHDR

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) September 5, 2020

#BOC #BOE #BOJ #ECB #FED | Latest data confirmed #G7 CBs combined balance sheet (BS) kept climbing in August (but at a slower pace than in July).
*#G7 CBs combined BS has grown by more than $7T since February. pic.twitter.com/TxEwR6slgK

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 5, 2020

Cycle low in US permanent job losers vs. US equities (S&P 500). pic.twitter.com/KFx1pkYDgL

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) September 4, 2020

The tightening in lending standards for C&I loans is now implying US charge-off rates for C&I loans will approach 2.5% by Q3 ‘21 for the 100 largest banks. Recessions normally conclude after this projected rise has completed, not when the move is just getting started. #Recession pic.twitter.com/FqnT7PFuaP

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) September 1, 2020

As toppy as it gets.

Financial conditions are flashing warning signal for stocks.

Lowest level since the peak of the tech bubble.

Prior lows also preceded or coincided with key market tops.

Tech bust, GFC, EM crash and Volmageddon. pic.twitter.com/JHuY8Sb5Cd

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) September 3, 2020

Corporate #zombies: Anatomy and life cycle – BIS
*HT @tracyalloway
*Link: https://t.co/YqzrDMGVpk pic.twitter.com/dBHCAREDvf

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 3, 2020