Daily Archives: September 1, 2020


According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 21 European countries (v 22 yesterday) have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Aug. 31st)



#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 1,218 (v 610 yesterday) – RKI
*Link: https://t.co/LoHFnnUCU0 pic.twitter.com/5aZRR4oeYT

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 1, 2020



*Link: https://t.co/LXG9UPxXtP

*Total new cases (regional data): +23,572 since Friday ⬇https://t.co/tK834BpWKU

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 31, 2020



*Positivity Rate: 4.2%❗(v 4.1% prior).
*Santé Publique France: https://t.co/bZLT3Rguuz pic.twitter.com/18Dy9mejse

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 31, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (28/08), ⚠️les taux de la semaine 35 (semaine dernière) sont estimés avec les données des 24-25-26-27-28/08. pic.twitter.com/1f7HnwXSmx

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) August 31, 2020



*Link: https://t.co/eItJ5WGBeK pic.twitter.com/o5ZOZLTlqO

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 31, 2020

In Italia nuovi contagi sotto quota mille (996) e 6 morti nelle ultime 24 ore: il bollettino del 31 agosto https://t.co/0YvdTqqApQ

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) August 31, 2020



Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)

*Note: Data can’t be directly compared to lockdown period amid methodology change and increasing frequency of tests (see below).


Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)


Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)


Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)


The S&P 500 boasted its steepest August percentage gain since 1986 even as it ended Monday slightly lower. The Dow also lost ground, though the Nasdaq closed higher thanks to high-flying stocks including Apple and Tesla. Read more https://t.co/QlQGKpqZku $AAPL $TSLA pic.twitter.com/lFv9gUXQUL

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) September 1, 2020

Fed officials say they're in no rush to update guidance on how long interest rates will stay at zero, following a historic strategy shift to be more tolerant of inflation.

Dallas Fed President Bullard says he's waiting for more on the coronavirus pandemic https://t.co/JeJY3YP4nd pic.twitter.com/KlWIFAibD9

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) August 31, 2020

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida left open the possibility of employing Treasury yield caps at some point in the future https://t.co/k6P34akfSi

— Bloomberg Australia (@BloombergAU) August 31, 2020

JPMorgan Says Investors Should Prepare for Rising Odds of #Trump Win – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/u8fGnH2mcJ pic.twitter.com/6e4FSPXb8Y

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 1, 2020

Trump is polling better in swing states this year, than he did in 2016@amlivemon flagged this pic.twitter.com/VLWxMLtPPr

— THE LONG VIEW ⚫️ (@HayekAndKeynes) August 31, 2020

August 2020: Presidential Race Tightens After Party Conventions – Emerson College Pollinghttps://t.co/PDYs4h9HNI

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 1, 2020

#Trump#Biden race tightens as both sides expect close contest – The Hillhttps://t.co/6TQOSHdvbN

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 1, 2020

News Recap – Navarro: White House To Target More Chinese Apps Following TikTok, WeChat Crackdowns – Fox Business https://t.co/B55DxndD12

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 31, 2020


China tensions hit Australia stocks as Asia markets take a breather https://t.co/S9PdkF0oVX

— Financial Times (@FT) September 1, 2020

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI – Full Report https://t.co/402dNGqRaT pic.twitter.com/mN8cbkRQVB

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 1, 2020

#Asia’s Factories Continue Their Fragile Recovery in August – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/vCPmvIQpq8 pic.twitter.com/5TKdrhlSce

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 1, 2020

Australia’s central bank increases the size of a Term Funding Facility and extends its length in order to provide ongoing support to the economy https://t.co/Dq49Nm1eVp

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 1, 2020

India's chief economic advisor says the government will not rule out short-term fiscal stimulus https://t.co/3rQ4b3QQEn

— CNBC (@CNBC) September 1, 2020


#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (September 1st)https://t.co/Mw9YoGDfpC

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 1, 2020

French companies will have a week to adopt new face mask rules: minister https://t.co/wRPug4dJfl pic.twitter.com/18toNxYQxf

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) September 1, 2020

#Virus resurgence dragging on eurozone recovery, data suggest (especially #Spain) – FT
*Link: https://t.co/n7VrWbNcmk pic.twitter.com/DvpmACcOfg

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 1, 2020

#SPAIN AUG #MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.9 V 53.0E (back into contraction)
*New Orders: 49.9 v 54.7 prior (back into contraction)
*Link: https://t.co/jkBo3frExN

*It confirmed that economic recovery has stalled since July (https://t.co/vdhoxIfCwX). pic.twitter.com/UbpQuIue3y

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 1, 2020

#EUROZONE AUG FINAL #MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.7 V 51.7E (confirms 2nd month of expansion)
– New Orders: 55.4 v 56.1 prior (2nd month of expansion)
*Link: https://t.co/VeWXFsiJrw pic.twitter.com/BN5Xe2knof

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 1, 2020

#EUROZONE AUG ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: -0.2% V 0.2%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.8%E https://t.co/5HdjvyfPz1

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 1, 2020

-Germany expects 2020 contraction won't be as deep as feared
-ECB is on the cusp of history (if only its next top recruit is a woman)
-Welcome back to school, Britain's economy is counting on you
Here's a rundown of your top economic news today https://t.co/A5VpPReu53

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 1, 2020

EU’s Barnier Refuses To Open Talks On Brexit Fishing Deal – Timeshttps://t.co/q4H7GTkLXQ

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 31, 2020

Ireland's finance minister calls for Brexit negotiators to redouble efforts as deadline draws closer https://t.co/0agPLFxNpi

— CNBC (@CNBC) September 1, 2020

During the second busiest August for #euro#dollar vanilla options since Bloomberg began compiling the data, contracts with a bullish bias made up a record 64% of the total. pic.twitter.com/X6LuMrcbAw

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 1, 2020

More on today's euro area inflation reality check, and why Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) might be a double-edged sword.

A good chart is worth a thousand words.
Good luck with that @ecb. pic.twitter.com/mtBzom4Oor

— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) September 1, 2020

The “K-shaped” recovery according to JP Morgan. The average citizen will be worse off in this imaginative scenario. pic.twitter.com/y7tCHDjQew

— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) September 1, 2020

The tightening in lending standards for C&I loans is now implying US charge-off rates for C&I loans will approach 2.5% by Q3 ‘21 for the 100 largest banks. Recessions normally conclude after this projected rise has completed, not when the move is just getting started. #Recession pic.twitter.com/FqnT7PFuaP

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) September 1, 2020

One of my most important Models is moving into the Sell/Hedge zone.

This is the 20th signal since 2009 – most led to sharp pullbacks or big corrections in Stocks.

Potential high risk of a bigger Tactical regime shift approaching – monitoring turn down for confirmation (TBD). pic.twitter.com/GnD14hh9nb

— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) September 1, 2020