Monthly Archives: August 2020

#Europe’s Fading Rebound Turns V-Shape Recovery Into Bird Wing – Bloomberg
*High-frequency indicators signal slowdown as virus cases gain
*Return to pre-virus levels of activity won’t be any time soon
*Link: https://t.co/CzcO8OQiQp pic.twitter.com/MbxEVDt4A1

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 18, 2020

#Pandemic triggers wave of billion-dollar US #bankruptcies – FT
*Link: https://t.co/mRi1vfEAHr pic.twitter.com/6pxg1SrvNQ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 22, 2020

American Investors Are Feeling Lucky – Bloomberg
*#Covid_19 has decimated economies around the world, but not markets — or investors’ expectations.
*Link: https://t.co/R5uGPuRwdo pic.twitter.com/cPji078a8C

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 20, 2020

G-4 central bank balance sheets have expanded nearly $5.7tn (16% of G-4 GDP) since February.

Asset purchases should increase G-4 balance sheets from $21.5tn (57% of GDP) now to nearly $27tn (67% of GDP) by end-2021. pic.twitter.com/Yb1rKBD9Pw

— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) August 17, 2020

#SPX | Bears Are Going Extinct in Stock Market’s $13 Trillion Rebound – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/3GT6UeFPgd pic.twitter.com/5wU8VmzRCg

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 22, 2020

#NAAIM allocation levels now approach exuberance levels. Above the February high level on a 4-week moving average. #Exuberance pic.twitter.com/Vv8yshWzPs

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) August 22, 2020

Gamma Exposure is at its highest level ever!!!

The previous record was in January 2020, a month before stocks collapsed in the fastest bear market ever.

This market is all greed, no fear! pic.twitter.com/AjPF2ipTsC

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) August 20, 2020

Meanwhile, risks of a black swan event are rising.

SKEW Index's 50 day average is at the highest level in almost 2 years pic.twitter.com/j0d6w5NgPt

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) August 20, 2020

THe S&P500 is now the S&P5 pic.twitter.com/v7HJyNAJ8Y

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 21, 2020

NO FEAR: $SPY volume is DEAD, only $12b traded past two days, lowest reading since Christmas Eve. Even some single stocks traded more, which rarely happens. No one tweaking their portfolio, feeling content, a confluence of Fed pacification, late summer-ness and sports returning.. pic.twitter.com/yHmbTw8r7L

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 18, 2020

Headed for total disaster.

A clear trend of worsening fiscal disorder since the break of the gold standard in 1971.

How does it all end?

Colossal monetary dilution.

None of us own enough gold. pic.twitter.com/CzqnUDhGVc

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 23, 2020

The Failed Promises of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) https://t.co/diVcMhBsi4 Gross private domestic investment had turned negative prior to the impact of the pandemic! pic.twitter.com/Ky8QOk9rzj

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) August 23, 2020

USD positioning: everyone is still bearish pic.twitter.com/TUo7fOttv3

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 22, 2020

Tech is eating the world: The 5 largest stocks – FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL – now account for 23% of S&P500, well above the high of 18% in 2000’s, Goldman says. Concentration appears even more extreme within Russell1000 Growth Index. Those same 5 stocks represent 37% of mkt cap. pic.twitter.com/AqJ7oGsQTh

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 23, 2020

7. Valuations aren't quite at a new ATH, but are definitely on the high side.

(of course, this indicator contains the trailing + forward PEs, which have been swung all over the place with the collapse in EPS)$SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/uILeLnI84W

— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) August 22, 2020

Americas

House passes $25 billion U.S. Postal Service bill opposed by President Trump https://t.co/KCQRmPDSDr

— Emma Kinery (@EmmaKinery) August 22, 2020

The U.S. recovery is sill fragile even as the labor market slowly improves https://t.co/JngXqGAkvp pic.twitter.com/ZTM753KOC4

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 22, 2020

Goldman Says Almost a Quarter of Temporary Layoffs in U.S. to Be Permanent – Bloomberghttps://t.co/fnRvLJyPgO

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 23, 2020

ICYMI: spending by unemployed Americans slumped after Aug 1 when stimulus benefits endedhttps://t.co/OzfB65eB25 pic.twitter.com/YbEjxPzKLm

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 22, 2020

Asia

#TikTok to file lawsuit against #Trump's executive order on Monday – Nikkeihttps://t.co/fkNSASTtYy

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 23, 2020

#SouthKorea reports biggest rise in #coronavirus cases since March – Reutershttps://t.co/lbkNOyKQ8D

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 23, 2020

Thailand may allow some foreign visitors into the country as early as October https://t.co/w6nqbki6xr

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 23, 2020

Hong Kong faces a looming wave of evictions as retailers get little help on rent relief https://t.co/9FOhsrTsnb

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 23, 2020

Europe

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (August 23rd)https://t.co/BPcrbcYx3S

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 23, 2020

#Italy Lockdown Success Challenged by New #Europe #Virus Surge – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/8nQRzjoJXD pic.twitter.com/nWZDglZBzD

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 23, 2020

#COVID19BE update 22/8/2020 @sciensano

De stabilisatie in Brussel was blijkbaar maar van korte duur:

Weekgemiddelden opnieuw in stijgende lijn
Hoogste dagcijfer sinds begin van de metingen

(1/3) pic.twitter.com/nzGbJPF38d

— Brecht Devleesschauwer (@brechtdv) August 22, 2020

#ITALY HEALTH MINISTER SAYS NO NEW LOCKDOWN FOR NOW: RAI

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 23, 2020

Germans are investing in stocks in the middle of the crisis. Many German savers have their first rendezvous with the stock market. My colleague @Tiefseher and I report on this trend in @WELTAMSONNTAG. @welt pic.twitter.com/bZSMheZNxe

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 23, 2020

Swiss lawmakers have dealt a blow to the government’s plans to combat the country’s high prices by ending tariffs for imported industrial goods https://t.co/PwWYR2652Q

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 23, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 20 European countries (v 21 prior) have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.

 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Aug. 22nd)

 

Germany

#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 782 (v 2034 yesterday) – RKI
*Link: https://t.co/LoHFnnUCU0 pic.twitter.com/Ziuxl3mLss

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 23, 2020

 

Spain

#Spain | #Madrid advises residents to stay at home as virus cases soar – Reutershttps://t.co/8R5TvgKHkk

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 23, 2020

 

France

#FRANCE REPORTS 3,602 NEW #CORONAVIRUS CASES (v 4586 prior)
*Positivity Rate: 3.5%❗ (v 3.4% prior).
*Santé Publique France: https://t.co/bZLT3Rguuz pic.twitter.com/ctsEiM16mK

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 23, 2020

J'aimerais vous proposer une nouvelle représentation du nombre de cas de COVID-19 en France.

Elle fait la distinction entre différentes classes d'âge, et permet de comprendre l'évolution du profil des malades. pic.twitter.com/gP1aYoxfNj

— Elias Orphelin (@eorphelin) August 21, 2020

 

Italy

#ITALY REPORTS 1071 VIRUS CASES SATURDAY (v 947 prior)
*It tops 1,000 daily coronavirus cases for first time since May
*Link: https://t.co/KUR6CVKXRE pic.twitter.com/yJdpY33OJr

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 23, 2020

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


Source: Our World in Data

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

#SPX | Bears Are Going Extinct in Stock Market’s $13 Trillion Rebound – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/3GT6UeFPgd pic.twitter.com/5wU8VmzRCg

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 22, 2020

#Economic Recovery Hit by Rise in Coronavirus Cases Across Europe – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/5RHoL8DW0r

#Europe #Covid_19 Daily Summary: https://t.co/pZMSKGOQXs pic.twitter.com/H4rumB13qZ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 22, 2020

#Pandemic triggers wave of billion-dollar US #bankruptcies – FT
*Link: https://t.co/mRi1vfEAHr pic.twitter.com/6pxg1SrvNQ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 22, 2020

#NAAIM allocation levels now approach exuberance levels. Above the February high level on a 4-week moving average. #Exuberance pic.twitter.com/Vv8yshWzPs

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) August 22, 2020

Energy & Financials continue their historic lag vs. tech and healthcare. YS #DriehausAlts pic.twitter.com/TYhGL37Gdr

— Driehaus (@DriehausCapital) August 21, 2020

Americas

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at record highs as data points to pockets of strength in the economy https://t.co/4lZdnyvyk3 pic.twitter.com/Wmo2FRyf4f

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) August 21, 2020

*SEN. KENNEDY: NO STIMULUS TALKS ONGOING BETWEEN PELOSI, MNUCHIN – BBG

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

U.S. JULY EXISTING HOME SALES RISE RECORD 24.7% TO 5.86M RATEhttps://t.co/vCuQN7OMET

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

#Pandemic triggers wave of billion-dollar US #bankruptcies – FT
*Link: https://t.co/mRi1vfEAHr pic.twitter.com/6pxg1SrvNQ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 22, 2020

Biden says he would shut down the country to combat Covid-19, if scientists recommended it https://t.co/J8S9MrwVwa

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) August 22, 2020

Asia

China’s President Xi Jinping called for increased efforts to develop the Yangtze River Delta region as part of the government’s push to boost the domestic market https://t.co/KJgjF85o3e

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) August 22, 2020

As virus cases pass 300 for 2nd day, #SouthKorea expands stricter social distancing nationwide – Yonhaphttps://t.co/KCGA201t8E

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 22, 2020

Malaysian GDP plunge fuels talk of post-COVID economic remodelinghttps://t.co/mMUyYEkO8s

— Nikkei Asian Review (@NAR) August 22, 2020

Loan restructuring plan will help revive India's economy, RBI chief says https://t.co/VubbuOhrLP

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 22, 2020

Europe

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (August 22nd)https://t.co/NvDbOqo9vW

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 22, 2020

#Trade | Joint Statement of the United States and the European Union on a Tariff Agreement https://t.co/KWzazheCHa

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

EU Gives Trump Trade Gift to U.S. Lobster Industry, GOP Senator – Bloomberghttps://t.co/MMNnnPC6aK

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 22, 2020

*US, EU ISSUE JOINT STATEMENT ON NARROW #TRADE AGREEMENT – BBG
*INVOLVES PRODUCTS VALUED AT ABOUT $200 MLN
*EU AGREES TO ELIMINATE TARIFFS ON U.S. LOBSTER
*US TO CUT TARIFFS 50% ON EU CRYSTAL GLASSWARE, LIGHTERS
*US ALSO TO CUT TARIFFS ON PROPELLANT POWDERS, PREPARED MEALS

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

#Economic Recovery Hit by Rise in Coronavirus Cases Across Europe – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/5RHoL8DW0r

#Europe #Covid_19 Daily Summary: https://t.co/pZMSKGOQXs pic.twitter.com/H4rumB13qZ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 22, 2020

We are worried about the state of play of the negotiations with #UK. We do not see how we can have a better agreement if we leave the most difficult subjects to the end. We risk running out of time.

My remarks after this week’s negotiations: https://t.co/emQJgP1ps6 pic.twitter.com/vyJ2nsWRsh

— Michel Barnier (@MichelBarnier) August 21, 2020

EU’s Barnier Warns #Brexit Deal Is ‘Unlikely’ as Progress Stalls – Bloomberghttps://t.co/qr2KBfZhEq

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

#Turkey Outlook Revised to Negative at Fitch as Reserves Drop – Bloomberghttps://t.co/2HKT80wKxp

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 22, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 21 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.

 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Aug. 21st)

 

Germany

#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 2034 (v 1222 yesterday) – RKI
*Link: https://t.co/LoHFnnUCU0 pic.twitter.com/URjIZrnEQm

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 22, 2020

At least 41 schools in #Berlin have reported that students or teacher have become infected with the coronavirus not even two weeks after schools reopened in the German capital – ABC Newshttps://t.co/pONoxxvcv4

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 22, 2020

 

Spain

#SPAIN‘S RECORDS 3,650 #CORONAVIRUS INFECTIONS IN 24 HOURS (v 3,349 yesterday)
*Link: https://t.co/LXG9UPxXtP pic.twitter.com/gBssvxfZTP

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

#Spain’s epidemic “out of control” in certain areas, says health emergencies director https://t.co/gKpHoq4uYh

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 22, 2020

#BELGIUM ADDS BALEARIC ISLANDS, #MADRID TO ITS QUARANTINE LIST – BBG

https://t.co/kwBKopMEWw

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

US and Spain have been moving in opposite directions. pic.twitter.com/EBR43lbQX0

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) August 21, 2020

 

France

#FRANCE REPORTS 4,586 NEW #CORONAVIRUS CASES IN PAST 24 HOURS (v 4771 yesterday)
*Positivity Rate: 3.4%❗ (v 3.3% yesterday).
*Santé Publique France: https://t.co/bZLT3Rguuz pic.twitter.com/v0T3IGtCvF

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

 

Italy

#ITALY REPORTS 947 VIRUS CASES FRIDAY (v 845 yesterday), MOST SINCE MAY 14
*Link: https://t.co/KUR6CVKXRE pic.twitter.com/CZW0Folae2

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

Contagi ancora in salita: 947 nuovi casi e 9 morti nelle ultime 24 ore. Salgono anche i ricoveri (+36) https://t.co/VlCjwIAza4

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) August 21, 2020

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


Source: Our World in Data

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 21 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.

 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Aug. 20th)

 

Merkel Warns #Europe Against New #Virus Lockdowns ‘At Any Cost’ – Bloomberghttps://t.co/E5R44LpOzU

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

 

Germany

#GERMANY CORONAVIRUS CASES INCREASE BY 1,586 TO 231,292: JHU – BBG pic.twitter.com/ZoA5Ok6bX4

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

 

Spain

#SPAIN REPORTS 3,349 NEW #CORONAVIRUS CASES, LESS THAN DAY AGO (v 3715 previously) – BBG
*Link: https://t.co/LXG9UPxXtP pic.twitter.com/Igml5oM4hA

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 20, 2020

 

France

#FRANCE REPORTS 4771 NEW #CORONAVIRUS CASES IN PAST 24 HOURS (v 3776 yesterday)
*Positivity Rate: 3.3% (v 3.0% yesterday).
*Santé Publique France: https://t.co/bZLT3Rguuz pic.twitter.com/eTP7SufQqS

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 20, 2020

Évolution des tests effectués et des tests positifs par classe d'âge (moyenne sur 7 jours) @EricBillyFR @Le___Doc pic.twitter.com/JVJo47ckty

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) August 20, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour (17/08) pic.twitter.com/aOtbsxFMNb

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) August 20, 2020

 

Italy

#ITALY REPORTS 845 VIRUS CASES THURSDAY, MOST SINCE MAY 16 (v 642 yesterday)
*Link: https://t.co/KUR6CVKXRE pic.twitter.com/fP59NYbnTQ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 20, 2020

#Italy Could Weigh Isolating #Sardinia on Virus Rise – Corriere della Sera
*Link (Italian): https://t.co/OMmaKVVsTN

https://t.co/kwBKopMEWw

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 20, 2020

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


Source: Our World in Data

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Goldman Reports Show #HedgeFunds, Mutual Funds Split on Megacaps – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/mZpgbWdXfq pic.twitter.com/H8hqL9XkNM

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

THe S&P500 is now the S&P5 pic.twitter.com/v7HJyNAJ8Y

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 21, 2020

The GAP! pic.twitter.com/vrHmxzKTaO

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) August 21, 2020

Through the first 20 days of the month, this August is the strongest for the S&P 500 since 2000. https://t.co/gjyWzomzTE pic.twitter.com/yA9Oz2ikID

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) August 21, 2020

Free/low commissions, gamification of trading apps, sky-high stock prices (only now coming down with stock splits and fractional shares).

The mains reasons why small trader call volume has been at record highs for weeks.@SoberLook @KLCapital pic.twitter.com/sujd1foaPG

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) August 21, 2020

Americas

#Trump Threatens Tariffs for U.S. Companies That Won’t Move Jobs Back – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ctCFkqUQwm

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

Commerce probes alleged dumping of Chinese trailer chassis and sub-assemblies – Reutershttps://t.co/zKEZq4zkd1

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

U.S., #China differ over plans for Phase 1 #trade deal talks – Reuters – Reutershttps://t.co/1Fr1FbSZCO

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

Lighthizer offers 5 suggestions for reforming the @wto:

• Set ‘baseline’ tariffs that apply to all w/ min. exceptions
• Offer true MFN; end the FTA ‘land grab’
• No SD&T for big economies
• New rules to curb ’s ‘state capitalism’
• Turn DSB into a single stage process. pic.twitter.com/1hahwFerJE

— Bryce Baschuk (@bbaschuk) August 21, 2020

Fed Chair Powell to speak on Fed's framework review next Thursday https://t.co/iydhEZKKXY pic.twitter.com/d2yUX5LlTB

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) August 20, 2020

Asia

#SouthKorea August 1-20 Exports Y/Y: -7.0% v -7.0% in July (full month)
*Average Daily Exports Y/Y: -3.7%❗ v -7.0% in July (full month)
*Link (Korean): https://t.co/nhrvEiiucM pic.twitter.com/cy7b7QqSRU

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

#AUSTRALIA AUG PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 53.9 V 54.0 PRIOR (3rd straight expansion)
*PMI Services: 48.1 v 58.2 prior (1st contraction in 3 months)
*PMI Composite: 48.8 v 57.8 prior (1st contraction in 3 months) pic.twitter.com/UCxN3mcirx

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

#JAPAN JULY PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 46.6 V 42.6 PRIOR (16th straight contraction)
*PMI Services: 45.0 v 45.2 prior (7th straight contraction)
*PMI Composite: 44.9 v 44.9 prior (8th straight contraction)
*Link: https://t.co/TkJFi584A8 pic.twitter.com/U6xO6TQVyr

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

Japanese inflation stays at zero even as economy reopens https://t.co/fnxhRUKfUA

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 21, 2020

The minutes of the Indian central bank’s interest rate-setting panel meeting showed its members have turned more hawkish over inflation https://t.co/zsw1TdYDPb

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 21, 2020

Europe

#Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (August 21st) https://t.co/Wp2upY0i35

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

Merkel Warns #Europe Against New #Virus Lockdowns ‘At Any Cost’ – Bloomberghttps://t.co/E5R44LpOzU

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

Pessimism Returns to #Brexit Talks as Hopes for Deal Slip Away – Bloomberghttps://t.co/8QHd9px2tM

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 21, 2020

Speculation is mounting that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will announce details of a major energy discovery in the Black Sea on Friday https://t.co/MxjpW8oY4D

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 21, 2020

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