Monthly Archives: August 2020

Analysts expect U.S. new vehicle sales to keep rebounding in August after increasing by 42.3% MoM in May, 6.9% in June and 11.3% in July (according to Wards data).

 

 

According to specialists, U.S. new vehicle sales could rise in August despite the federal government’s CARES Act programs — which provided financial relief to individuals and businesses affected by COVID-19 — for the most part expired at the end of July:

1- Cox Automotive noted the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of auto sales in August is expected to finish near 14.9 million, up from last month’s 14.5 million pace. Sales volume in August, forecast at 1.30 million, will increase 7% from July.

 

August new vehicle sales are forecast to be up from July. The industry's slow sales recovery continues. Our August 2020 forecast: https://t.co/q3hxEJxwHe

— Cox Automotive (@CoxAutomotive) August 27, 2020

 

2- ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. projectstotal new vehicle sales will reach 1,303,826 units in August 2020, down 15% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15 million units.

 

3- Industry consultants J.D. Power and LMC Automotive saidThe seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total sales is expected to be 15.1 million units, down 2.0 million units from a year ago.

 

4- Finally, Wards Intelligence expects sales to reach 15.2 million SAAR.

Speculative options trading reached the equivalent of 12% of NYSE volume last week.

Like some combustible combo of musical chairs, Russian roulette, and five finger fillet.

How many traders can dance upon the head of a pin? pic.twitter.com/nsCeyKH093

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) August 29, 2020

The S&P 500 set a 52-week high for a week straight.

Every one of the sessions had a negative McClellan Oscillator.

This has never happened before, using S&P stock data to 1998 or all NYSE securities back to 1962. pic.twitter.com/b5lpEl6XVt

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) August 28, 2020

AAPL just 2% away from surpassing the entire Russell 2000. This is absolute insanity pic.twitter.com/mblZO5TAZv

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 28, 2020

Good luck Powell pic.twitter.com/OGeCeg3ZDh

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) August 28, 2020

You just came back from Mars:

The just Fed printed $2.8T in 6 months.
Reduced rates to 0%.
Deficits shot up to WW2 levels.

Would you have guessed that policy makers would still be fighting DEFLATION?

None of us own enough gold.https://t.co/FQJDdw6aBI pic.twitter.com/dByPy8sXZ7

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 29, 2020

Americas

Stocks rose on Friday to wrap up another strong week as the Dow tried to erase its losses of 2020.

The Dow climbed 0.57%
The S&P 500 was up 0.67%.
The NASDAQ rose 0.60%. pic.twitter.com/VZp5ginQgF

— CNBC (@CNBC) August 28, 2020

The Fed's Jackson Hole summit concludes today. ⚡️ “Fed holds virtual Jackson Hole summit” https://t.co/3GG3uiRm7B

— CNBC (@CNBC) August 28, 2020

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Democrats would be willing to accept a slightly smaller coronavirus-aid package than their previous offer, but they remained at an impasse with the White House. https://t.co/t1WHj56Qw4

— Capital Journal (@WSJPolitics) August 27, 2020

Pelosi, White House call on COVID-19 aid ends without a breakthrough https://t.co/jFhnqobpVt pic.twitter.com/uD7WCZpBQ6

— Reuters India (@ReutersIndia) August 28, 2020

*PENTAGON ADDS MORE NAMES TO #CHINA `MILITARY COMPANIES' LIST – BBG
*U.S. ADDS CHINA THREE GORGES, SINOCHEM GROUP TO CHINA LIST

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2020

Google, Facebook Dump #HongKong Cable After U.S. Security Alarm – Bloomberghttps://t.co/sKw2Nev5GE

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 29, 2020

Commercial real estate deals in New York City have taken a major hit as the pandemic continues to roil the local economy https://t.co/dv7oZBnZ4z

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 29, 2020

Doctors find possible case of #Covid_19 reinfection in US – CNNhttps://t.co/EAaQ7sv7q6

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 29, 2020

Asia

Market watchers seem to be voicing a near consensus that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s resignation won’t immediately mean swerves in Japan’s economic agenda https://t.co/K9yYwBbuzL

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 29, 2020

#Coronavirus latest: #Wuhan prepares to reopen all schools#COVID19 https://t.co/C7jZko5pCl

— Nikkei Asian Review (@NAR) August 29, 2020

Europe

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (August 29th)https://t.co/vOLu2ncMdh

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 29, 2020

Bloomberg Economics estimates 4 million UK jobs were still supported by the furlough program at the start of August, and with the scheme due to end in October a wave of job losses in the fall remains a huge risk (via @DanHanson41) https://t.co/iEHwFGYOYB pic.twitter.com/PvMFGzjSgs

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 29, 2020

#France président Macron says he set red lines with #Turkey in eastern Mediterranean https://t.co/9lfb58oOhN
/via @ggeopo#EastMed #Greece #Oruc_Reis https://t.co/HcsuMgZBdk

— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) August 29, 2020

The EU is considering imposing economic sanctions against Turkey over its gas drilling activities in the Eastern Mediterranean https://t.co/eQvDAbLxkl

— POLITICO (@politico) August 28, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 22 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.
 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Aug. 28th)

 

Germany

#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 1,479 (v 1,571 yesterday) – RKI
*Link: https://t.co/LoHFnnUCU0 pic.twitter.com/DbatjtXKe1

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 29, 2020

 

Spain

#SPAIN REPORTS 3,829 #CORONAVIRUS CASES FRIDAY (IN THE LAST 24 HOURS) VS 3,781 THURSDAY: HEALTH MINISTRY
*Link: https://t.co/LXG9UPxXtP

*Total new cases (regional data): +9,779 (https://t.co/hRGCzaz3Jr) v +9,658 prior pic.twitter.com/64yYPVLXfH

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2020

Datos por comunidades 28/08/2020:

⚠️Hoy 9.779 nuevos positivos!

– Evolución IA= Incidencia acumulada (indica cuantos casos, proporcional a 100.000 hab)
– Razón de tasas
– Situación global y número de casos, compara con IA de 7 y 14 días

Sigue hilo pic.twitter.com/YEO0OIF6zz

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) August 28, 2020

 

France

#FRANCE REPORTS 7,379 NEW #CORONAVIRUS CASES IN PAST 24 HOURS (v 6,111 prior)
*Positivity Rate: 3.9%❗(v 3.8% prior).
*Santé Publique France: https://t.co/bZLT3Rguuz pic.twitter.com/JBofDzk0vu

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (25/08), ⚠️les taux de la semaine 35 (cette semaine) sont estimés uniquement avec les données des 24-25/08 (suivre l'évolution avec les données disponibles les prochains jours). pic.twitter.com/vz9On1NdPw

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) August 28, 2020

 

Italy

#ITALY REPORTS 1,462 VIRUS CASES FRIDAY VS 1,411 THURSDAY
*Link: https://t.co/KUR6CVKXRE pic.twitter.com/Fjxo1gcjx5

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2020

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


Source: Our World in Data

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Americas

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows will hold his first discussion with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in three weeks Thursday afternoon, as U.S. fiscal stimulus talks remain at a stalemate https://t.co/78H8AKPqrn

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 27, 2020

U.S. Top Farm Negotiator Tones Down Approach to #China Trade Deal – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/wNtgrryYLj pic.twitter.com/TqlYUUuSUs

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2020

Trump’s 71-minute RNC speech delivered a version of reality that he wanted America to see – one that diverged from what many Americans are experiencing in a turbulent year but fit a version of MAGA success he’s sold to his base https://t.co/hTKzj6aI9I

— POLITICO (@politico) August 28, 2020

-The Fed's new plan to lift inflation faces skepticism
-6 suggestions for how to deal with ballooning U.S. debt
-Canda GDP data is expected to show 40% annualized drop in 2Q
Here's a rundown of your top economic news today https://t.co/10dxiU25N0

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 28, 2020

It's GDP day in Canada – here's what to expect https://t.co/U4pHzfMgQK

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 28, 2020

Asia

Shinzo Abe is leaving Japan in the throes of an economic downturn. His signature policy framework may be the only way out (via @bopinion) https://t.co/semgNcArpd

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 28, 2020

Economists say Shinzo Abe's departure is unlikely to trigger changes in Bank of Japan policy https://t.co/k3AUQxrMOY

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 28, 2020

#Japan's stock market fell sharply after the country's longest-serving leader, Shinzo Abe, decided to resign due to health reasons. #Nikkei pic.twitter.com/f7eVZBrICy

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) August 28, 2020

IPO mania in China mints three new billionaires in a single week.https://t.co/pgNfURk4rq

— Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) August 27, 2020

Global CFOs now have a more positive economic outlook for China than the U.S., survey shows https://t.co/QyRe3VvWuF

— CNBC (@CNBC) August 28, 2020

Europe

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (August 28th)

➡ Focus on #Germany, #France, #Spain, #Italy
*Daily new confirmed cases, tests, positivity rates, confirmed deathshttps://t.co/3p90hKT7nv

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2020

#EUROZONE AUG ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE: 87.7 V 85.0E https://t.co/aIevPeTYpJ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2020

Economic confidence in the euro area continues to improve https://t.co/4xsKb8rOrl

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 28, 2020

Macron renews calls for French sovereignty in healthcare and industry https://t.co/UQMB0psTDN pic.twitter.com/fHVu07XtcD

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) August 28, 2020

In our last two institutional notes, we've talked about the tightening that is taking place on main street, i.e. credit availability to consumers, which has historically been -ve for consumption. pic.twitter.com/hDIaVaL9PP

— Teddy Vallee (@TeddyVallee) August 28, 2020

Quite the disconnect. The US yield curve (10Y-3M) has historically been a good predictor of US EPS growth YoY w/ a lead of 29M. Looking ahead into ‘21, consensus is hoping for 27% EPS growth. This is completely at odds w/ the YC, suggesting no real recovery in EPS before Q1 ‘22. pic.twitter.com/Bkvig3h46l

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) August 28, 2020

Delusional.

Nasdaq is up 48% in the past year while earnings dropped by -30%.

Wall street analysts expect 2021 earnings to grow by 120%!

They better not miss targets at these absurd valuations…. pic.twitter.com/M1kAAWzeuN

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 27, 2020

$SPX Gamma Exposure (updated).

21DMA in the Top 20 days in data history (0.85%), just passed the JAN 2018 peak value – still climbing, with JAN 2020 now in sight.

Watching closely how this develops and IF/when it turns down.

Will revisit in the coming weeks – stay tuned. pic.twitter.com/Y8b9F1r3rg

— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) August 28, 2020

And they're off! With both conventions in the books, the gap between Biden and Trump on @PredictIt is now the narrowest since June 8th. #Election2020 pic.twitter.com/51CRs32SmA

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) August 28, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 23 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.
 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Aug. 27th)

 

Germany

#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 1,571 (v 1,507 yesterday) – RKI
*Link: https://t.co/LoHFnnUCU0 pic.twitter.com/jEqVfcjdiP

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2020

 

Spain

Datos por comunidades 27/08/2020:

⚠️Hoy 9.658 nuevos positivos!

– Evolución IA= Incidencia acumulada (indica cuantos casos, proporcional a 100.000 hab)
– Razón de tasas
– Situación global y número de casos, compara con IA de 7 y 14 días

Sigue hilo pic.twitter.com/ABJM0Qeddj

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) August 27, 2020

 

France

#FRANCE REPORTS 6,111 NEW #CORONAVIRUS CASES IN PAST 24 HOURS (v 5,429 prior)
*Positivity Rate: 3.8%❗(v 3.7% prior).
*Santé Publique France: https://t.co/bZLT3Rguuz pic.twitter.com/kYp9m8oBKv

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2020

 

Italy

#ITALY REPORTS 1,411 NEW #COVID CASES (V 1,367 prior)
*Link: https://t.co/KUR6CVKXRE pic.twitter.com/jzTzA6gHaL

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2020

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


Source: Our World in Data

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Americas

U.S. stocks surged, pushing the S&P 500 to its fourth straight record closing high. More here: https://t.co/9mhg6UJYe6 pic.twitter.com/Q5StdG8csj

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) August 27, 2020

Swing state voters appear to be growing more optimistic on the state of the U.S. economy and job market, according to the latest CNBC/@ChangePolls survey. https://t.co/gvpRiw5crV pic.twitter.com/G4NdIqCFK9

— CNBC (@CNBC) August 27, 2020

Here are the highlights from Night 3 of the Republican National Convention https://t.co/0TTFtJ6gQ9

— CNBC (@CNBC) August 27, 2020

NEW: Anthony Fauci tells CNN that he was in the operating room under general anesthesia last Thursday when the White House coronavirus task force approved the narrowing of CDC testing guidance to exclude asymptomatic individuals. https://t.co/6NnYjktplD

— Axios (@axios) August 26, 2020

U.S. Sanctions Chinese Firms and Executives Active in Contested South China Sea – WSJhttps://t.co/WGg2m7FfT9

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2020

Asia

#China Increases Key Purchases With U.S. Target Still Far Off – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/FeKvLJjVD5 pic.twitter.com/gMw0ILdDqH

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2020

#China Calls for Talks With U.S. on Spat Over Stock Listings – Bloomberghttps://t.co/cnR3zcj5Ns

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2020

Chinese military fires ‘aircraft-carrier killer’ missile into South #China Sea in ‘warning to the United States’ – SCMPhttps://t.co/1ftbBwY5jf

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2020

China’s industrial giants rebound for third successive month in July as coronavirus recovery continued #China #china #industry #industrial https://t.co/v9jvN9658R pic.twitter.com/t3ox0P6LbW

— SCMP Economy (@scmpeconomy) August 27, 2020

Top #Japan government spokesman signals push to re-open economy, boost stimulus – Reutershttps://t.co/0nVjsAJ2RL

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 26, 2020

The Bank of Korea’s hold on stimulus underscores the balancing act facing the central bank, as it remains wary of adding stimulus that could further fuel property gains while the economic toll from the latest virus wave becomes evident https://t.co/ckEb9OGTwx

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 27, 2020

Europe

European markets head for mixed open ahead of speech by Fed's Powell https://t.co/rzix8n4ded

— CNBC (@CNBC) August 27, 2020

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (August 27th)

➡ Focus on #Germany, #France, #Spain, #Italy
*Daily new confirmed cases, tests, positivity rates, confirmed deaths
*Main news by countryhttps://t.co/ImqkuzaYYI

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2020

Germany extended another crisis tool to prevent corporate bankruptcies, a move that critics say will store up bigger problems later for Europe’s largest economy (via @jrandow & @raymondcolitt) https://t.co/3U8t7AMRFz

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 27, 2020

France's 100 billion-euro economic stimulus program will include about 2 billion euros for the cultural industries https://t.co/2YZ5OVaNxw

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 26, 2020

EU trade commissioner Phil Hogan has resigned, a week after he breached Ireland's coronavirus restrictions https://t.co/FB7ZZ6H4oW

— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) August 26, 2020

You can’t make this up…

Nasdaq vs. US banks.

Just wild.
This can’t go on forever. pic.twitter.com/4hzLplMaVq

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 27, 2020

Modern market cap theory, or MMCT, is the idea that there is no upper limit for how large stocks can grow.https://t.co/6O6nKzpjwe

— Michael Batnick (@michaelbatnick) August 27, 2020

Stock market traders must be having a great time:

SPY Optimism Index's 100 day average is at an all-time high! pic.twitter.com/E4byjP9E2Q

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) August 27, 2020

Macro-Market Disconnect: global equities are surging, but global lending standards are tightening…

Why you should be both concerned (and not concerned): https://t.co/ldRty3zX45$MACRO $ACWI pic.twitter.com/kFx4OxSI1o

— Topdown Charts (@topdowncharts) August 26, 2020

The growing divergence between Wall Street and Main Street pic.twitter.com/JIt8stnyxh

— PK (@PaulWHKim) August 26, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 22 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.
 

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Aug. 26th)

 

Germany

#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 1,507 (v 1,576 yesterday) – RKI
*Link: https://t.co/LoHFnnUCU0 pic.twitter.com/EKYJcsTo0b

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2020

 

Spain

#SPAIN RECORDS 3,594 NEW #CORONAVIRUS CASES VS 2,415 DAY AGO
*Link: https://t.co/LXG9UPxXtP pic.twitter.com/HLNSmlnl6p

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 26, 2020

Datos por comunidades 26/08/2020:

⚠️Hoy 7.296 nuevos positivos!

– Evolución IA= Incidencia acumulada (indica cuantos casos, proporcional a 100.000 hab)
– Razón de tasas
– Situación global y número de casos, compara con IA de 7 y 14 días

Sigue hilo pic.twitter.com/TMBcJJrwEz

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) August 26, 2020

In Spain, coronavirus death are low but cases are up — primarily among younger people.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez says he is "worried."

The country’s 17 autonomous regions are responding to the local outbreaks independently.

What happens next? https://t.co/f2TghtZohd

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) August 26, 2020

 

France

#FRANCE REPORTS 5,429 NEW #CORONAVIRUS CASES IN PAST 24 HOURS (v 3,304 prior)
*Positivity Rate: 3.7%❗(v 3.7% prior).
*Santé Publique France: https://t.co/bZLT3Rguuz pic.twitter.com/mQOj7cG28y

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2020

Pour les entrées en réa (toujours en moyenne sur 7 jours glissants): point bas à 9 le 15/07, 29 le 25/08. pic.twitter.com/buKWLLfGI5

— Luc Peillon (@l_peillon) August 26, 2020

#Belgium bans travel to #Paris due to #coronavirus concerns – Politico
*Paris and several other French regions now classified as ‘red zones.’https://t.co/Hc0fLFceZz

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2020

Belgium bans travel to Paris and other French regions, including these:

⚠️ Seine-Saint-Denis
⚠️ Val-de-Marne
⚠️ Sarthe
⚠️ Hérault
⚠️ Alpes-Maritimes
⚠️ Bouches-du-Rhône
⚠️ French Guianahttps://t.co/BdqRY5aoQ1

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) August 26, 2020

 

Italy

#ITALY REPORTS 1,367 NEW COVID-19 CASES, MOST SINCE MAY 12 (V 878 prior)
*Link: https://t.co/KUR6CVKXRE pic.twitter.com/2oh3K4av1Q

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 26, 2020

Italy rules out imposing a new nationwide lockdown despite a surge in coronavirus cases https://t.co/csKN6nmOjt

— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) August 26, 2020

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


Source: Our World in Data

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

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