Daily Archives: August 29, 2020


According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 22 European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Aug. 28th)



#Germany's confirmed #coronavirus cases rise by 1,479 (v 1,571 yesterday) – RKI
*Link: https://t.co/LoHFnnUCU0 pic.twitter.com/DbatjtXKe1

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 29, 2020



*Link: https://t.co/LXG9UPxXtP

*Total new cases (regional data): +9,779 (https://t.co/hRGCzaz3Jr) v +9,658 prior pic.twitter.com/64yYPVLXfH

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2020

Datos por comunidades 28/08/2020:

⚠️Hoy 9.779 nuevos positivos!

– Evolución IA= Incidencia acumulada (indica cuantos casos, proporcional a 100.000 hab)
– Razón de tasas
– Situación global y número de casos, compara con IA de 7 y 14 días

Sigue hilo pic.twitter.com/YEO0OIF6zz

— ngb padel (@ngbpadel2) August 28, 2020



*Positivity Rate: 3.9%❗(v 3.8% prior).
*Santé Publique France: https://t.co/bZLT3Rguuz pic.twitter.com/JBofDzk0vu

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2020

Mise à jour avec les données du jour pour les tests (25/08), ⚠️les taux de la semaine 35 (cette semaine) sont estimés uniquement avec les données des 24-25/08 (suivre l'évolution avec les données disponibles les prochains jours). pic.twitter.com/vz9On1NdPw

— Germain Forestier (@gforestier) August 28, 2020



*Link: https://t.co/KUR6CVKXRE pic.twitter.com/Fjxo1gcjx5

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2020



Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)

Source: Our World in Data


Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)


Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)


Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)


Stocks rose on Friday to wrap up another strong week as the Dow tried to erase its losses of 2020.

The Dow climbed 0.57%
The S&P 500 was up 0.67%.
The NASDAQ rose 0.60%. pic.twitter.com/VZp5ginQgF

— CNBC (@CNBC) August 28, 2020

The Fed's Jackson Hole summit concludes today. ⚡️ “Fed holds virtual Jackson Hole summit” https://t.co/3GG3uiRm7B

— CNBC (@CNBC) August 28, 2020

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Democrats would be willing to accept a slightly smaller coronavirus-aid package than their previous offer, but they remained at an impasse with the White House. https://t.co/t1WHj56Qw4

— Capital Journal (@WSJPolitics) August 27, 2020

Pelosi, White House call on COVID-19 aid ends without a breakthrough https://t.co/jFhnqobpVt pic.twitter.com/uD7WCZpBQ6

— Reuters India (@ReutersIndia) August 28, 2020


— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2020

Google, Facebook Dump #HongKong Cable After U.S. Security Alarm – Bloomberghttps://t.co/sKw2Nev5GE

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 29, 2020

Commercial real estate deals in New York City have taken a major hit as the pandemic continues to roil the local economy https://t.co/dv7oZBnZ4z

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 29, 2020

Doctors find possible case of #Covid_19 reinfection in US – CNNhttps://t.co/EAaQ7sv7q6

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 29, 2020


Market watchers seem to be voicing a near consensus that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s resignation won’t immediately mean swerves in Japan’s economic agenda https://t.co/K9yYwBbuzL

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 29, 2020

#Coronavirus latest: #Wuhan prepares to reopen all schools#COVID19 https://t.co/C7jZko5pCl

— Nikkei Asian Review (@NAR) August 29, 2020


#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (August 29th)https://t.co/vOLu2ncMdh

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 29, 2020

Bloomberg Economics estimates 4 million UK jobs were still supported by the furlough program at the start of August, and with the scheme due to end in October a wave of job losses in the fall remains a huge risk (via @DanHanson41) https://t.co/iEHwFGYOYB pic.twitter.com/PvMFGzjSgs

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 29, 2020

#France président Macron says he set red lines with #Turkey in eastern Mediterranean https://t.co/9lfb58oOhN
/via @ggeopo#EastMed #Greece #Oruc_Reis https://t.co/HcsuMgZBdk

— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) August 29, 2020

The EU is considering imposing economic sanctions against Turkey over its gas drilling activities in the Eastern Mediterranean https://t.co/eQvDAbLxkl

— POLITICO (@politico) August 28, 2020

Speculative options trading reached the equivalent of 12% of NYSE volume last week.

Like some combustible combo of musical chairs, Russian roulette, and five finger fillet.

How many traders can dance upon the head of a pin? pic.twitter.com/nsCeyKH093

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) August 29, 2020

The S&P 500 set a 52-week high for a week straight.

Every one of the sessions had a negative McClellan Oscillator.

This has never happened before, using S&P stock data to 1998 or all NYSE securities back to 1962. pic.twitter.com/b5lpEl6XVt

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) August 28, 2020

AAPL just 2% away from surpassing the entire Russell 2000. This is absolute insanity pic.twitter.com/mblZO5TAZv

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 28, 2020

Good luck Powell pic.twitter.com/OGeCeg3ZDh

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) August 28, 2020

You just came back from Mars:

The just Fed printed $2.8T in 6 months.
Reduced rates to 0%.
Deficits shot up to WW2 levels.

Would you have guessed that policy makers would still be fighting DEFLATION?

None of us own enough gold.https://t.co/FQJDdw6aBI pic.twitter.com/dByPy8sXZ7

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 29, 2020

Analysts expect U.S. new vehicle sales to keep rebounding in August after increasing by 42.3% MoM in May, 6.9% in June and 11.3% in July (according to Wards data).



According to specialists, U.S. new vehicle sales could rise in August despite the federal government’s CARES Act programs — which provided financial relief to individuals and businesses affected by COVID-19 — for the most part expired at the end of July:

1- Cox Automotive noted the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of auto sales in August is expected to finish near 14.9 million, up from last month’s 14.5 million pace. Sales volume in August, forecast at 1.30 million, will increase 7% from July.


August new vehicle sales are forecast to be up from July. The industry's slow sales recovery continues. Our August 2020 forecast: https://t.co/q3hxEJxwHe

— Cox Automotive (@CoxAutomotive) August 27, 2020


2- ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. projectstotal new vehicle sales will reach 1,303,826 units in August 2020, down 15% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15 million units.


3- Industry consultants J.D. Power and LMC Automotive saidThe seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total sales is expected to be 15.1 million units, down 2.0 million units from a year ago.


4- Finally, Wards Intelligence expects sales to reach 15.2 million SAAR.

U.S. Economy

Tuesday (September 1st)

Total Vehicle Sales for August – Bloomberg consensus: 14.80m(e) v 14.52m prior
According to auto analysts, new vehicle sales should rise for the 4th consecutive month in August. All the specialists I follow expect sales to beat the Bloomberg consensus, with forecasts ranging from 14.90m to 15.20m.


Thursday (September 3rd)

Initial Jobless Claims for August 29th – Bloomberg consensus: 950k(e) v 1 006k prior
A new methodology will be used to seasonally adjust claims next week, potentially leading to a break in the serie. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, Beginning with the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims News Release issued Thursday, September 3, 2020, the methodology used to seasonally adjust the national initial claims and continued claims will reflect additive factors as opposed to multiplicative factors.


Friday (September 4th)

Change in nonfarm payrolls for August – Bloomberg consensus: 1 400k(e) v 1 763k
In a recent post, Bill McBride highlighted that the Census Bureau released an update on 2020 Census Paid Temporary Workers, which suggests that the employment report will be artificially boosted by Census workers (+237.8k) in August.

August Employment Report Will Show an Increase of 237,800 Temporary Census Workers https://t.co/0MfpRv1h0i pic.twitter.com/TyS12IrXtm

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) August 25, 2020


Back-to-school-related hiring usually begins in August. In this context, issues concerning the return to schools may start to impact hiring. Therefore, the previous statistical boost from public-sector education observed in July report (local government education: +215k & state government education: +30k) will normalize and even reverse in August.