Daily Archives: August 19, 2020

Europe

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, twenty European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.


Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (data as of Aug. 18th)

 

Germany

#Germany's confirmed coronavirus cases rise by 1,510 v 1390 yesterday) to 226,914: RKI – Reuters
*Link: https://t.co/wwGiSxCJRS
*RKI: https://t.co/LoHFnnUCU0 pic.twitter.com/VDZDlME9gc

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 19, 2020

 

Spain

#Spain recorded 2,128 new coronavirus cases in the past day, up from 1,833 reported a day earlier, according to Health Ministry data published Tuesday.
*Link: https://t.co/jT3z3ROsvb pic.twitter.com/vHSqDJPsCr

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 18, 2020

 

France

#FRANCE REPORTS 2,238 NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES IN PAST 24 HOURS (v 493 yesterday)
*Positivity Rate: 3.0% (v 2.9% yesterday).
*Santé Publique France: https://t.co/bZLT3Rguuz pic.twitter.com/UuoNTBsPst

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 18, 2020

#France to Make Office Masks Mandatory From Sept. 1 : France Info
*France Info cites French Labor Minister Elisabeth Borne in article on website.https://t.co/Itsr17mjX7

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 18, 2020

ALERTE INFO – #COVID19 : La #SeineetMarne, l'#Essonne et les #Yvelines passent en vulnérabilité modéré. C'est désormais toute l'#IledeFrance qui est en vulnérabilité modérée dont #Paris en vulnérabilité élevé. (Santé Publique #France) #coronavirus pic.twitter.com/pFmzTNjKpr

— FLASH INFO Ile-de-France (@info_Paris_IDF) August 18, 2020

 

Italy

#ITALY RECORDS 403 NEW #CORONAVIRUS CASES ON TUESDAY (v 479 yesterday)
*Link: https://t.co/KUR6CVKXRE pic.twitter.com/6S30UgVzMY

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 18, 2020

Coronavirus in Italia, il bollettino del 18 agosto: 403 nuovi casi e 5 morti nelle ultime 24 ore https://t.co/XFn0TVkRUt

— Corriere della Sera (@Corriere) August 18, 2020

 


 

Daily New Confirmed Cases (7-day moving average)


Source: Our World in Data

 

Daily New Tests (7-day moving average)

 

Positivity Rates (7-day moving average)

 

Daily New Confirmed Deaths (7-day moving average)

Americas

#Trump's extra $300 in unemployment benefits could run out in 3 weeks – CBShttps://t.co/6qyXIH9hIT

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 19, 2020

Pelosi Hints Democrats Might Pare Stimulus Plan, Seek More Later – Bloomberghttps://t.co/uz7yqGUH0F

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 19, 2020

U.S. official sees 'real desire' for smaller coronavirus relief bill – Reutershttps://t.co/vtYKec5qnh

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 19, 2020

State Department Urges Colleges to Divest From Chinese Companies – Bloomberghttps://t.co/3Ro88oZWcc

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 19, 2020

NEW: Biden Campaign Statement on President Trump’s Victory Lap on His Failed Trade Deal with China

Statement by senior foreign policy advisor @ABlinken on Trump’s false claim that Beijing is “more than living up to” its commitments in the phase one trade deal. pic.twitter.com/5lvOUndiQD

— Ely Ratner (@elyratner) August 18, 2020

#Trump Cancels #China Talks, Raising Questions About #Trade Deal – Bloomberghttps://t.co/8IXHMXGQfZ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 19, 2020

No new U.S.-#China talks scheduled: White House chief of staff – Reutershttps://t.co/AgFiWLOZ1U

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 19, 2020

The Trump administration is considering additional sanctions on Venezuela aimed at halting the remaining fuel transactions permitted with the South American nation https://t.co/FL5pobnL8Z

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 19, 2020

Trudeau outlines 'expansionist strategy’ with Freeland on board https://t.co/8qKgx9capM

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 19, 2020

Asia

South Korea reports 297 new cases and its biggest daily increase since early March. https://t.co/8stZxiZzyt

— Nikkei Asian Review (@NAR) August 19, 2020

#SouthKorea warns of nationwide coronavirus spread as church outbreaks threaten capital – Reutershttps://t.co/agEVEUNiIK

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 19, 2020

Japan's exports tumble, capex outlook sags as demand wilts https://t.co/AqRBTqk4p8 pic.twitter.com/kPIQAY9oI7

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) August 19, 2020

#Taiwan plans to ban mainland Chinese streaming sites such as iQiyi and Tencent WeTV – SCMPhttps://t.co/DPaFEyA4yy

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 19, 2020

Europe

#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (August 19th)https://t.co/mJn15g2MY5

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 19, 2020

#Brexit trade talks set to stall again over British truckers’ EU access – FThttps://t.co/Tvu34xki46

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 19, 2020

Britain to introduce legally binding environmental targets https://t.co/1L1Ygxpnpn pic.twitter.com/sy8tTbJwfe

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) August 19, 2020

UK inflation unexpectedly accelerates to the highest level since March https://t.co/B6GWPsgzlq

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) August 19, 2020

Wary of returning vacationers spreading Covid-19, European officials will implement new restrictive measures soon to contain the virus. As I flagged in my daily update, several European countries such as Spain have already shown worrying signs with a sharp rebound in new daily confirmed cases. In addition, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, twenty one European countries have crossed a key threshold of new coronavirus infections. Latest data showed that the countries have recorded cumulative 14-day infection totals higher than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, considered an early alarm level by many health experts.

 

Bloomberg highlighted the concerns already prompted Spain and Italy to shut nightclubs and Greece to limit hours for bars and restaurants. More recently, Ireland’s coronavirus restrictions were “significantly” tightened after the number of cases increased rapidly over the past two weeks. Sky News reported that “All businesses have been told to let employees work from home, new limits have been placed on outdoor gatherings, and the government has warned people to avoid public transport to combat the spread of COVID-19.

 

 

In the meantime, the Dutch government issued stricter advice to the public regarding the coronavirus pandemic, telling people to continue working from home as much as possible should remain the norm even after September 1, and to not hold gatherings of more than six people. “I will get straight to the point: the developments surrounding the coronavirus are not going well,” said Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

 

Meanwhile, Bloomberg noted that German Chancellor Angela Merkel echoed this sentiment, ruling out any further loosening of virus measures and highlighting that “a doubling in the number of daily cases in Germany in the last three weeks must be addressed“. In this context, Germany is requiring people returning from heavily affected areas like Spain to quarantine for two weeks or present a negative test to thwart the disease from spreading in schools and workplaces. Reuters added that Austria expanded its travel warning for the Spanish mainland to include the Balearic islands, such as Mallorca and Ibiza. Elsewhere, Croatia is also facing an uptick in Covid-19 infections, which is raising concern over further countries introducing quarantines for those returning from holidays there.

 

 

In France, President Emmanuel Macron recently urged French citizens to remain vigilant as the virus is accelerating again. Furthermore, Labor Minister Elisabeth Borne announced that mask-wearing will be obligatory in most indoor work areas, including meeting rooms, lobbies and open-plan offices. The government is also encouraging employees to work from home whenever possible.

 

In a context where virus counts are rising around the continent, major economies (Germany, France, Italy) are likely to follow Spain (see University of Oxford data) and tighten their healthcare policies in the coming days.

 

 

The problem is that restrictive measures will probably affect economic recovery which has already lost traction since June. According to Bloomberg, “Hopes for a so-called V-shaped rebound have been dashed by indicators and high frequency data that show activity slowing markedly — or even plateauing — below pre-crisis levels.

 

#Europe’s Fading Rebound Turns V-Shape Recovery Into Bird Wing – Bloomberg
*High-frequency indicators signal slowdown as virus cases gain
*Return to pre-virus levels of activity won’t be any time soon
*Link: https://t.co/CzcO8OQiQp pic.twitter.com/MbxEVDt4A1

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 18, 2020

 

All in all, it seems that risks linked to the healthcare situation remains clearly skewed to the downside in the short term and could raise the specter of negative GDP growth in 4Q20 if the trend worsens significantly in September.

#SPX | Stock Market at Record Forcing Everyone to Become Believer – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/xwXrRwnalr pic.twitter.com/Vk7w4HSy0O

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 19, 2020

Oops.

S&P 500 earnings real yield is at its lowest level in a decade!

Prior lows were also times that gold outperformed equities.

What’s different this time?

Stocks have never been at record highs with fundamentals severely depressed.

Never.

Time to buy gold & sell stocks. pic.twitter.com/Yiw4h4DS6Q

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 19, 2020

The S&P 500 made new all time highs yesterday with just 6% of stocks making new 52 week highs. pic.twitter.com/78HomhFQyy

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) August 19, 2020

Nine Nagging Negatives For The US Equity Market https://t.co/27kPm5mYHR

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 19, 2020

NO FEAR: $SPY volume is DEAD, only $12b traded past two days, lowest reading since Christmas Eve. Even some single stocks traded more, which rarely happens. No one tweaking their portfolio, feeling content, a confluence of Fed pacification, late summer-ness and sports returning.. pic.twitter.com/yHmbTw8r7L

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 18, 2020