Daily Archives: August 5, 2020

Looking at latest U.S. #trade data (goods only), Chinese purchases of U.S. goods improved a bit compared to May. However, using a linear extrapolation, they are still expected to decline in 2020 (compared to 2019), while #PhaseOne deal implies a jump of more than 110%❗ pic.twitter.com/GbqC7WNy9r

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 5, 2020

Remarkable how inflation expectation and nominal yields are moving in opposite directions.

The Fed's new mandate, suppress yields at all cost.

Meanwhile, US Treasury keeps raising its borrowing estimates:

$947B in Q3
$1.2T in Q4

Just the beginning of a frenetic gold rally. pic.twitter.com/gYbqZ61apl

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 5, 2020

Banks tightened lending standards further during Q2, in stark contrast to market developments (opposite situation post the IT-bubble). The Fed can safeguard market financing to some extent but not necessarily save Main Street. Could weigh a little on macro in coming months. pic.twitter.com/F3qMY6c3pP

— Sebastian Dypbukt Källman (@sdypbuktkallman) August 4, 2020

Record levels are being approached.

NASDAQ’s 20 day moving average is now up 82 consecutive days!

This is the 3rd longest streak EVER. Historically this led to a pullback in the NASDAQ and S&P over the next 2 months. pic.twitter.com/4E1DPPjCDR

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) August 5, 2020

Gold has rallied for 13 out of 14 days.

That has happened never times before. pic.twitter.com/tF0eW2iFto

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) August 5, 2020

Americas

Pelosi on the coronavirus stimulus price tag she's willing to settle for: '$3.4 trillion' – CNNhttps://t.co/aoE9mUNN93

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 5, 2020

Sen. Perdue Says Senate Stimulus Talks Could Take Two More Weeks – Bloomberghttps://t.co/T67GAMyRBP

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 5, 2020

U.S., #China Plan to Review Phase-One #Trade Deal Mid-Month – Bloomberghttps://t.co/DlPvra8Ygp

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 5, 2020

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar to Visit #Taiwan – WSJ
*Visit marks first trip to the island by a U.S. cabinet official in six years; China objects to high-level contacts between the U.S. and Taiwan.https://t.co/wdipduvDCw

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 5, 2020

Asia

#Virus Cases Are Surging in #Japan, And Abe May Be Bowing Out – Bloomberg
*Support for Abe slips to record low of 35.4% in JNN pollhttps://t.co/GFRGpA52uG

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 5, 2020

Japan considering extending special employment subsidy: labour ministry official https://t.co/61COGj88hW pic.twitter.com/kPKXZEoMq7

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 5, 2020

#CHINA JULY CAIXIN PMI SERVICES: 54.1 V 58.0E (3rd STRAIGHT EXPANSION)
– PMI Composite: 54.5 v 55.7 prior (3rd STRAIGHT EXPANSION)
*Link: https://t.co/Hs8FWVmSKo pic.twitter.com/dYjshmfQwW

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 5, 2020

#China | #PBOC’s Attempt to Exit Crisis Mode Faces a $500 Billion Test – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/tmArLipU6W pic.twitter.com/us3EEdL0q9

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 5, 2020

#China state media excoriates U.S. 'wackadoodles' over journalist visas row – Reuters
*China Daily: https://t.co/wRSrHSKXdL https://t.co/VrHfO5X8oG

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 5, 2020

The creation of an alliance of like-minded nations in the Indo-Pacific region is critical to maintaining stability, Scott Morrison will tell the Aspen Security Forum on Wednesday. https://t.co/StA0Ur2lQw

— Financial Review (@FinancialReview) August 4, 2020

No. 2: North Korea goes phishing at the UN; spies on Security Council personnel through Gmail and WhatsApp,https://t.co/HG0aHNjehI

— Nikkei Asian Review (@NAR) August 4, 2020

Europe

Second COVID wave 'highly likely' to hit France this year, scientists say https://t.co/xU1Yom1fVj pic.twitter.com/J6KNhbCakk

— Reuters UK (@ReutersUK) August 4, 2020

Greece reports 121 new coronavirus cases, highest in weeks https://t.co/1mo2Gg6sjN pic.twitter.com/37Wk334TeQ

— Reuters UK (@ReutersUK) August 4, 2020

Ireland delays full reopening of bars again after COVID-19 rate doubles https://t.co/1QBI2K0HHe pic.twitter.com/ElmGLcGmjp

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 4, 2020