Daily Archives: August 2, 2020

Americas

Lawmakers still “not close” to a #coronavirus #stimulus deal, a day after $600 federal relief expired – Voxhttps://t.co/zaPKc02xr7

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 2, 2020

Next Jobless Aid Bill Could Decide Path of U.S. Economic Rebound – Bloomberg
*As I already noted, U.S. Economic Growth Is Likely to Disappoint in 3Q 2020 Without Another Round of Stimulus Soon ➡ https://t.co/o6tJwwxqRYhttps://t.co/vSNLdEB4mG

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 2, 2020

#WhiteHouse Poised to Announce Move on #TikTok’s U.S. Operations – Bloomberghttps://t.co/5J7HFxAAv3

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 2, 2020

Asia

#Australia’s #Victoria Tightens Lockdown, Imposes #Melbourne Curfew – Bloomberghttps://t.co/0096KeHWCe

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 2, 2020

#Vietnam to Test 1.1 Million People in City at Center of Outbreak – Bloomberghttps://t.co/E2HnhjL7cx

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 2, 2020

#Japan Acted Like the Virus Had Gone. Now It’s Spread Everywhere – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/l3VCOtIBHX pic.twitter.com/S9yhgDd3gk

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 2, 2020

Europe

#OOTT | #Russia Slightly Raised July #Oil Output Ahead of #OPEC+ Tapering – Bloomberghttps://t.co/dkFh1wYMLh

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 2, 2020

U.K. Weighs London Lockdown in Worst-Case Scenario: Reports – Bloomberghttps://t.co/LRtA7C7emt

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 2, 2020

#Europe’s country-by-country travel restrictions explained – Politicohttps://t.co/fhpWAHTqkh

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) August 2, 2020

I/ Positioning (Contrarian Signal)

*Retailers look extremly active and bullish

Here's a sneak peek of a feature coming very soon to Robintrack aimed at providing a high-level view of retail trading activity over the whole market:

I blurred out the axis labels since I still have to finish vetting the data's accuracy. pic.twitter.com/ifyzMVcEYs

— Robintrack (@robintrack) July 30, 2020

Retail investor activity remains off the charts pic.twitter.com/z7APi7uJyN

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 28, 2020

Goldman Spots A Historic Inversion In The Market https://t.co/GV0eVlAEGR

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 24, 2020

YOLO crew is back and is bigger than ever…

Strong argument that retail armed with stimulus checks and the sports betting crew (Portnoy et al) moved into the market in a big way…. pic.twitter.com/sFVVuRG8V7

— THE LONG VIEW ⚫️ (@HayekAndKeynes) July 24, 2020

 

*Positions seem to be concentrated in Tech stocks

8. Tech fund flowshttps://t.co/d0glkEmboY pic.twitter.com/x9l1bs7ntV

— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) August 1, 2020

Am I too late to the game to tweet: LONG US TECH STOCKS? $QQQ $AMZN $AAPL $GOOGL $NFLX $MSFT pic.twitter.com/ytvBZGT102

— PK (@PaulWHKim) July 26, 2020

From Bloomberg:

Put/Call ratio for large tech stocks is incredibly low pic.twitter.com/HX9adIpeJ7

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) July 28, 2020

1999 Reloaded pic.twitter.com/jnFqujQzJ0

— Christopher Cole (@vol_christopher) July 27, 2020

 

*Shorts have capitulated

JPMorgan Finds That Shorts Across The Globe Have Capitulated https://t.co/iLqgtEbOuh

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 1, 2020

The NAAIM exposure index shows fund managers are almost as bullish as possible.

The index rose to 97.58 from 90.53 which is the highest reading since December 18th, 2019.
Source: NAAIM

Article: https://t.co/sB0TCOCQob pic.twitter.com/kMKyyBxawo

— UPFINA (@UPFINAcom) July 28, 2020

Sentiment

Chart suggesting that global investors are more optimistic, as global stock market sentiment remains above its one-year rolling avg https://t.co/jJ1iAXzd0Y

h/t @Nomura #markets #financialmarkets #stocks#sentiment #bullish #investing #equities #stockmarket pic.twitter.com/OPl3rFfw7a

— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) July 29, 2020

Citi Panic/Euphoria pic.twitter.com/aZZ2bLR9LA

— Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) August 1, 2020

 

II/ Seasonal Patterns

*Usually, seasonal pattern isn’t supportive in August

2. Not so happy new month: negative seasonality kicks in from Aug.

(n.b. seasonality can and does break down, and is simply the result/expression of historical averages)$SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/n1U84XQVRc

— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) August 1, 2020

Summer Seasonality by @bespokeinvest https://t.co/gHzo3xVtPJ

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) July 27, 2020

August turns out to have been the best single month for the #VIX and for the $, and the worst month for 10-year Treasury bonds. It is also the best month after January for #gold – Bloomberg (by @johnauthers)
*Chart from @VrntPerception
*Link: https://t.co/Ol56JMaOBC pic.twitter.com/EZ1ka8HAv6

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 29, 2020

 

*It’s the same case for U.S. presidential cycle…

#equities underperform in the run up to #USelectionspic.twitter.com/y7l8pZDhRB

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) June 27, 2020

 

*… Especially if the incumbent party loses the Elections

While Biden was leading in polls against Trump for a long time, betting markets did not agree with polls, and favored Trump. That changed in June. Americans are happy to forgive incumbent presidents almost anything, but not bad economy. Betting odds reflect that. pic.twitter.com/OLvUdlQBTw

— Marin Bozic (@marinbozic) August 1, 2020

Democrats now have better odds of taking the Senate than they do the Presidency. @maximlott https://t.co/g2oYhotwnt pic.twitter.com/1PnwovZssB

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) July 30, 2020

A very interesting chart from Strategas Research Partners, which shows the performance of the #SPX in election years when the incumbent party wins, compared to when it eventually loses – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/ygo3xYU4rI pic.twitter.com/ycsSLZkbjg

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) June 29, 2020

#USElection2020 : it matters who wins… #Trump #Biden pic.twitter.com/VN8Cvr048j

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) July 28, 2020

Great chart by @RyanDetrick. The stock market has an impressive track record in forecasting who wins the #USelections. If #Biden wins, like the polls suggest, #equities will struggle from between now and Election Day. pic.twitter.com/oK4DwPDoeQ

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) August 3, 2020

 

III/ Liquidity (Volatility Multiplier)

*Liquidity remains particularly low

ES liquidity: why retail traders make an impact pic.twitter.com/1R26VkU9xa

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 29, 2020

S&P futures depth: Poor.

(c/o Barclays) pic.twitter.com/2amoY3T252

— Yakob Peterseil (@YPeterseil) July 29, 2020

4. ETF put/call ratio tracking at what appear to be fairly reliable tactical contrarian bearish levels…

h/t @hmeisler $SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/088CLSXUc1

— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) August 1, 2020

'Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook now represent more than a fifth of the S&P 500. Not since the 1980s have the biggest five companies had such a large share of the index.' https://t.co/DVxQonNgCU pic.twitter.com/fdKfUfOhAR

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 2, 2020

US Treasury yields have hot a 234-year low. pic.twitter.com/CN6ogAm58Q

— Robin Wigglesworth (@RobinWigg) July 31, 2020

Mission accomplished: #Fed has killed the funding stress w/the printing press. Libor OIS spread has dropped to pre-crisis lows. HT @themarketear pic.twitter.com/AFDRLXMBG0

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 2, 2020

US Investment Grade Corporate bond yields continue to hit all-time lows: 1.92%. The Fed remains a buyer at any price/yield.

Chart via @ycharts pic.twitter.com/FH2j1Ctjir

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 1, 2020