Daily Archives: July 21, 2020

Americas

Cities Move to Tighten Coronavirus Restrictions, as U.S. Cases Surge – WSJhttps://t.co/ygF9QUw25q

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

Pelosi-Mnuchin Talks Open Sprint for a Last-Chance #Stimulus Deal – Bloomberghttps://t.co/QfqQrLWuXg

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

#GOP #coronavirus bill likely to include payroll tax cut and tie school money to reopening plans – Washington Posthttps://t.co/2ZH4DERhFn

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

*U.S. ADDS 11 CHINESE ENTITIES TO THE ENTITY LIST: COMMERCE DEPT – BBGhttps://t.co/FvDmWImZni

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 20, 2020

Asia

#Australia | #Victoria records 374 more coronavirus cases, three more deaths – The Agehttps://t.co/qvXsJn7mP5

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

#Japan | #Tokyo confirms 237 coronavirus cases Tuesday, TV Asahi reports, citing Governor Yuriko Koike.

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

#Japan | Majority of Japan CEOs say #recovery won't happen for 2 years – Nikkeihttps://t.co/WZr2E4UYbZ

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

#Australia Unleashes A$20 Billion Jobs Support Amid Virus Surge – Bloomberghttps://t.co/PpNKi70g8m

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

#China provinces show strong signs of second quarter economic rebound after #coronavirus – SCMPhttps://t.co/kUmWxQ3zys

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

#SouthKorea July 1-20 Exports Y/Y: -12.8% v -10.9% in June (full month)
*There was one less working day in the period, compared with last year.
*Average Daily Exports Y/Y: -7.1%❗ v -18.5% in June (full month)
*Link (Korean): https://t.co/RsXubGoC9H pic.twitter.com/SGoBtmrRkA

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

Europe

#EU nations clinch $2.1T budget, virus aid deal after 4 days – APhttps://t.co/Z58oIGzoL0

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

#EU Leaders Clinch 750 Billion-Euro Coronavirus Recovery Fund – Bloomberghttps://t.co/wsl2RhlWYT

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

*RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY SAYS #CORONAVIRUS #VACCINE IS READY: AIF – BBG
*AIF CITES 1ST DEPUTY DEFENSE MINISTER TSALIKOV ON VACCINEhttps://t.co/bdoIh4pt7F

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

Four U.S. #Tech Giants Worth More Than Entire #Japan Market – Bloomberg
*Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet Inc. were worth $5.97T as of Monday, versus $5.84T for all Japanese stocks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
*More charts: https://t.co/flWYoeto4Y pic.twitter.com/7AnppKntGe

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

The #Nasdaq 100 Index is trading 21% above its average price over the past 100 days – Bloomberg
*That gap is the widest since the dot-com peak in March 2000.
*More charts: https://t.co/MxahCLNl3P pic.twitter.com/z4zaQLMe6e

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

#SPX | The S&P 500 Index closed Monday slightly above where it started the year, and the consensus 12-month price target of analysts is nearly the same as it was as well – Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/9ndz6xJOCX

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 21, 2020

Recent IPOs have seen major outperformance relative to the S&P 500 in the past few months.
Read more in tonight's Closer: https://t.co/OBIJsDEFLC pic.twitter.com/zoeIUlUjJz

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) July 20, 2020

Here we go again…

Negative yielding bonds just broke out.

This only adds fuel to the gold & silver fire.

Interest rate suppression while money supply expands.

An explosive mix for precious metals. pic.twitter.com/jV02re97Iu

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 21, 2020

As I already noted, the U.S. economic recovery has stalled since late June amid a rebound in coronavirus cases. On the healthcare front, the situation has kept on deteriorating with the FT (citing Fulcrum economists) recently highlighting that “the virus’s effective reproduction number, known as R, is now above the critical level of 1 in all but five of the US’s 50 states. Weighted by gross domestic product, this means that 95 per cent of the US economy is affected by a viral reproduction rate high enough to cause an exponential rise in the number of cases — unless something intervenes to prevent this”. Other researchers including Mike Krieger, Kevin Systrom, and Thomas Vladeck have found similar results.

 

The virus’s effective reproduction number (R) is now above the critical level of 1 in all but five of the US’s 50 states – FT
*Weighted by GDP, 95% of the economy is affected by a viral R high enough to cause an exponential ⬆ in the number of cases. https://t.co/9RY6iQWRs5

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 20, 2020

 

In this context, most of states were forced to react by stopping reopening phases or even implementing new restriction measures. Zero Hedge (citing Goldman Sachs research) pointed out that “Reopening is on hold in most of the US, as states containing about 80% of the population have explicitly paused or taken targeted steps to reverse reopening.” More recently, the mayor of Los Angeles said his city is “on the brink” of new restrictions while, according to a Democratic representative, Florida’s Covid-19 outbreak is “totally out of control”.

 

Goldman: States Containing 80% Of The US Population Have Paused Or Taken targeted Steps To Reverse Reopening https://t.co/fFBq7AaolV

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 19, 2020

#Florida Virus ‘Out of Control,’ #LosAngeles Is on the Brink – Bloomberghttps://t.co/g7A6DWLNGp

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 20, 2020

 

In the meantime, high frequency data such as Homebase or Safegraph have continued to cast doubt about the possibility of a V-shape recovery while monthly data, such as consumer confidence, started to be affected. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for July declined to 73.2 from 78.1 prior. The result was only slightly above the April low (up 1.4 points).

 

How is the economic recovery going? Wall Street goes off-grid to sources like Homebase – MarketWatchhttps://t.co/myCwohiIQn

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 20, 2020

Slowing of the recovery with spread of the virus: Retail activity slowed during July across the US. Same rough trends hold for states rebounding quickly (Wisconsin & Florida), moderately (Texas & Arizona), or slowly (New York & California). Based on @SafeGraph foot traffic data. pic.twitter.com/0yP6Q4391k

— Noah Williams (@Bellmanequation) July 19, 2020

 

Furthermore, the worst could be ahead for the U.S. economy if another round of fiscal stimulus is not implemented very soon. Even if U.S. figures surprised to the upside in 2Q 2020 thanks to resilient household spending, this pattern could reverse. First of all, millions of residents in are in danger of losing their homes when the federal eviction moratorium enacted to combat the economic fallout of the novel coronavirus expires after July 24.

 

Federal eviction moratorium expires in July, along with enhanced jobless benefits for millions of Americans; Congress debates extensions https://t.co/a3QjYiMYU2

— Real Time Economics (@WSJecon) July 20, 2020

 

Then, the $600 top-up to unemployment benefits are expected to expire at the end of July while the Payrolls Protection Program (PPP) will stop accepting new applications on Aug. 8. At the same time, mortgage forbearance plans are expiring. Lastly, the freeze on student-debt repayments is set to end in September.

 

The $600 unemployment payments are likely ending. Here’s why https://t.co/Dpkhp5fKAZ

— CNBC (@CNBC) July 17, 2020

The U.S. Set Up These Programs to Offset #Covid Hardship. They’re All About to Expire – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/V0OZxAEZf1 pic.twitter.com/R3H55I1GF0

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 18, 2020

 

The problem is that government helps artificially boosted growth in 2Q and the trend looks therefore unsustainable. Reuters underlined that “the $600 weekly supplement added to jobless benefits as part of the CARES Act helped unemployed households spend 10% more after receiving benefits than they did before the pandemic, according to research by the JPMorgan Chase Institute.

 

This is the most important thing to understand about the economy right now.

U.S. retail sales are back to pre-crisis levels, because the CARES Act did such a good job replacing lost income. That’s scheduled to expire in just 9 days. https://t.co/HafBxB5TV0 via @readep pic.twitter.com/GbMwmmusbb

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) July 16, 2020

 

All in all, in a context where the virus is still not contained, any stimulus removal could have very negative consequences on household spending which was the main recovery driver in 2Q. That’s why the current talks are very important for both the economy and financial markets.