Daily Archives: July 1, 2020

The short interest in the SPDR #ETF, tracking companies in the S&P 500 #Technology Index, was the lowest since the end of 2007 – Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/PikZIwR7M5

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) June 30, 2020

Great chart from @JC_OHara_, Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners, interviewed at Bloomberg:

"Currently, the Put/Call Ratio for the $NDX top 5 weighted names (40% of the index) is telling us that the market is extremely greedy – everybody is on the same side of the trade." pic.twitter.com/Dh8K0jeBqU

— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) June 30, 2020

NASDAQ 100 has closed below its 20 day moving average (short term uptrend) for the first time in 58 days, the *longest streak* in 2 decades!

Historically this usually led to a pullback in tech stocks as the NASDAQ 100's rally ran out of steam. Stay alert & be careful pic.twitter.com/VJy2R83Q7w

— Troy Bombardia (@bullmarketsco) June 30, 2020

The market always wants more, but with the Fed balance sheet now actually shrinking slightly, the s-t tailwind for markets from Fed's initial balance sheet explosion might already be turning into headwind. Another reason to be a bit more cautious early Q3. https://t.co/HS5NDkzOYP pic.twitter.com/g8XsOifSaF

— Sebastian Dypbukt Källman (@sdypbuktkallman) June 30, 2020

#ECB Balance sheet tops €6tn for 1st time ever. Total assets rose by a whopping €600bn or 11% to €6.24tn on massive TLTRO intake by banks. Banks took €1.31tn in long-term loans from ECB w/an interest rate below ZERO. ECB balance sheet now equals to record 52% of Eurozone GDP. pic.twitter.com/7Q5XBLPqZv

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) June 30, 2020

Americas

U.S. Cases Rise by More Than 48,000 (4 p.m. NY) – Bloomberg
*The 1.9% gain was above the average daily increase of 1.6% over the past week.
*Link: https://t.co/MIEy8jX11g pic.twitter.com/BTYt576il1

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 1, 2020

US Hospitals Buckle Under Surge Of New #Coronavirus Cases – FThttps://t.co/sharlwtsgS

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 1, 2020

Fauci Says U.S. Risks 100,000 Daily Cases in Dire #Virus Warning – Bloomberghttps://t.co/8NYix3drEg

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 1, 2020

Goldman Estimates 40% of U.S. Has Reversed Reopening (09:51 a.m. HK) – Bloomberg
*The bank also calculated that the share of the population in states where policies are getting more restrictive is up to 30% over five days.
*Link: https://t.co/7QkU1dkOrD pic.twitter.com/v7GPCT2Nxb

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 1, 2020

US Senate votes to extend small-business aid program through August – Reutershttps://t.co/HW3PxSoHVS

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 1, 2020

Mnuchin, Powell Pledge Additional Relief to Prevent Lasting Damage to Economy – WSJhttps://t.co/wv5ooQQcoy

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 1, 2020

Asia

#IMF Sees #Asia’s Pain Persisting as Virus Curbs Limit Recovery – Bloomberg
*Asia’s loss of economic output due to the deadly coronavirus will likely persist until 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund.https://t.co/yWf1oDQxnu

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 1, 2020

#CHINA MAY ANNOUNCE RESTRICTIONS ON U.S. MEDIA: GLOBAL TIMES' HU

https://t.co/Fsu96AWZYj

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 1, 2020

#Australia to lock down 300,000 in #Melbourne suburbs after #coronavirus spike – Reutershttps://t.co/slNwvDzoV5

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 1, 2020

China's factory activity expands, but job losses quicken amid weak exports: Caixin PMI https://t.co/FVz1a27sw3 pic.twitter.com/vrQ9N2ermx

— Reuters (@Reuters) July 1, 2020

Europe

#Europe’s Move to Keep Americans Out Signals Long Travel Slump – Bloomberghttps://t.co/UYfZ7lbwfY

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 1, 2020

Schnabel Says #ECB May Not Use Full Size of Emergency Program – Bloomberg
*Executive Board member Yves Mersch, Slovakia’s Peter Kazimir and France’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau have all flagged fewer purchases as an option❗https://t.co/c27rdK33Zl

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 1, 2020

Analysts expect new vehicle sales to keep rebounding in June after increasing by 42.3% MoM in May. However, May’s level remained quite low at 12.21m (SAAR), far below February’s level of 16.83m, which offers room for another rise in June:

1- According to Edmunds, “Analysts forecast a healthier-than-expected SAAR of 12.8 million in June as the country expands reopening and more consumers resume car purchases, but warn that new market factors could create trouble ahead.”

2- According to Cox Automotive, “the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of auto sales in June will finish at 12.6 million, down significantly from last year’s 17.2 million pace, but up from May’s 12.2 million level.”

 

Auto sales are reported next week. Here’s our forecast: https://t.co/fa07E0Gelp

— Cox Automotive (@CoxAutomotive) June 26, 2020

First-half auto sales will be confirmed by most automakers on Wednesday. The results, we know, have been helped by generous incentive spending. https://t.co/MxpOSx3LXb

— Cox Automotive (@CoxAutomotive) June 29, 2020

 

3- Wards Intelligence expectsJune’s seasonally adjusted annual rate to total 12.9 million units. That compares with May’s 12.2 million and April’s awful 8.7 million.”

 

June Auto Sales Improve, But Just a Bithttps://t.co/2LKsHzOMon@CoxAutomotive pic.twitter.com/eyeUHU7TvO

— WardsAuto (@WardsAuto) June 29, 2020

 

4- ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. projects “total new vehicle sales will reach 1,098,960 units in June 2020, down 24% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 13 million units.”

 

“Automotive retail continues to show positive momentum, rebounding from April lows and performing better than initially expected as states continue to ease restrictions,” said @EricLymanALG, Chief Industry Analyst. See the latest sales forecast for June: https://t.co/Y53G85R8Ll

— TrueCar (@TrueCar) June 26, 2020

 

5- Industry consultants J.D. Power and LMC Automotive saidThe seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total sales is expected to be 12.8 million units, down 4.4 million units from a year ago.”

#China Has $139 Billion Mountain to Climb to Meet U.S. #Trade Deal – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/EIhuJ4AtiG pic.twitter.com/NthPgwdQSl

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) July 1, 2020

State curve steepeners =34% of US GDP. $SPX pic.twitter.com/JUsA24Z0Ah

— Teddy Vallee (@TeddyVallee) June 30, 2020

#Technology ruled (once again) in June. pic.twitter.com/0KnMqv1EWG

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) July 1, 2020

The Federal Reserve is now:
#3 holder of LQD
#5 holder of JNK
#2 holder of VCSH
#5 holder of VCIT

The @federalreserve has taken over capital markets under the false pretext of "helping the middle class" pic.twitter.com/PiEocURL16

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 30, 2020

Most central banks have scaled back their operations compared to March and April, but the ECB expanded its balance almost as much in June (5.5% of GDP) as in March and April combined (5.6% of GDP) pic.twitter.com/JIL8pholiV

— MacroMarketsDaily (@macro_daily) July 1, 2020