E Economics

10 Tweets That Suggest U.S. Economy May Already Be In Recession – Part 2

22 July, 2022

Since May, I have warned about the risk of a “technical recession” in the U.S. and the fact the consensus is very optimistic about 2022 GDP prospects. Things got worse in June (Part 1) and the trend gained traction in July with most of indicators (HF data and surveys) pointing to a deterioration of economic activity. Therefore, as of writting, it’s now likely U.S. growth (4Q21/Q422) turns negative. The first estimate of 2Q GDP will be scrutinized next week (July 28th) and could force Biden administration and Fed policymakers to change their bullish view about the U.S. economy.